The Washington Commanders have lost five games in a row, seven of their last eight and 10 of their previous 12. While the Carolina Panthers have the NFL’s worst record at 2-12, you could make the case that the 4-10 Commanders are the league’s worst team.
There are only three games remaining in the 2023 season. This week, the Commanders have their best chance at another win, facing the 5-9 New York Jets. Even as bad as the Jets are, they are a three-point favorite over Washington in Week 16.
The Commanders will soon have a new general manager and head coach. So, as far as fan interest is concerned, the rest of this season is about securing the highest draft pick possible in the 2024 NFL draft. Currently, Washington holds the No. 4 pick, just ahead of the Jets at No. 5.
A win over New York could be catastrophic regarding the Commanders’ draft hopes. Washington is currently the NFL’s only four-win team. However, five teams are right behind the Commanders with five wins. Since the strength of schedule is factored as the tie-breaker, a win and losses by those behind them could move the Commanders to as low as ninth.
Seth Walder, an analytics writer for ESPN, recently updated Washington’s chances for a top-three pick.
Chance to earn a top-3 pick in the NFL Draft, per ESPN Analytics
Bears via Panthers 99%
Patriots 82%
Cardinals 64%
Commanders 44%
Bears 4%
Giants 4%
Jets 2%
Chargers 1%Others <1%
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 18, 2023
While still less than 50%, those odds favor Washington if the Commanders keep playing as they currently are.
As far as landing the second overall pick, that seems less likely.
Chance to earn a top-2 pick in the NFL Draft, per ESPN Analytics
Bears via Panthers 95%
Patriots 58%
Cardinals 31%
Commanders 15%Others <1%
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 18, 2023
You can pretty much forget about landing the top overall pick. Not only would the Commanders need to lose out, but the Panthers would essentially need to win out, and the Cardinals and Patriots would each need to lose at least once.
Chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick, per ESPN Analytics
Bears via Panthers 85%
Patriots 10%
Cardinals 4%
Commanders <1%
Bears <1%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 18, 2023
As strange as this sounds, the Commanders just need to handle their own business — losing — for the remainder of the season to continue to climb in the draft order.
