Cam Akers’ career thus far has been a mixed bag. At times, he’s looked like one of the 10 best backs in the NFL. At others, he’s struggled to make defenders miss and create yards that weren’t blocked for him. Not to mention, he had a rift with the Rams last year that resulted in him sitting out for a few weeks.
Between last year’s dispute and his torn Achilles before the 2021 season, we haven’t exactly gotten a full season to truly evaluate Akers yet. Sure, he played 13 games as a rookie in 2020 and he was technically active for 15 games in 2022, he only has 338 career carries. For comparison, Josh Jacobs had 340 carries last season alone.
Heading into 2023, Akers is the clear-cut starter. Darrell Henderson Jr. is gone and Kyren Williams doesn’t appear poised to supplant Akers atop the depth chart. So what are reasonable expectations for Akers this year?
Will the Rams get the guy who averaged 3.1 yards per carry in his first eight games last year? Or will Akers pick up where he left off after he rushed for 549 yards (4.9 YPC) and six touchdowns in his final seven games of 2022?
If Akers plays the way he did at the end of last season, a 1,000-yard campaign is well within reach for the fourth-year back. He’s now almost two years removed from his torn Achilles and looked much more explosive in the second half of last season, which could be a positive sign of things to come.
Even if he simply averages what he has in his career (4.2 yards per carry), Akers won’t need a massive workload to reach 1,000 yards. He would only need 238 carries, a number nine running backs reached last season. If he’s able to stay healthy for all 17 games, that’s an average of 14 carries per game. In three years with Sean McVay, Todd Gurley averaged 252 attempts per season despite missing four games in that span.
The key for Akers is his health. If he can stay available, it’s reasonable to think he’ll eclipse 800 yards for the first time in his career. At 4.2 yards per carry, he’d only need 190 attempts, which 24 running backs had in 2022.
In terms of reasonable expectations, DraftKings Sportsbook has set Akers’ rushing total at 800.5 yards. It’s hard not to like the over on that bet, given the lack of competition behind Akers now that Henderson is gone and after seeing the way he finished the 2022 campaign. ESPN’s Mike Clay projected stats for all of the Rams’ players in 2023 and he set Akers’ numbers at 213 carries, 882 yards and seven touchdowns. That works out to 4.1 yards per carry, just below Akers’ career average.
As long as Akers stays healthy and neither Williams nor rookie Zach Evans eat into his carries significantly, I expect Akers to approach 1,000 yards with a half-dozen touchdowns. He knows this is a big year financially for him with his contract expiring, so there will be no lack of motivation on his part.
