Whenever the baseball lockout ends and that first glimpse of spring breaks through this wintry mix there will be flurries of activity as teams rush to outfit rosters, complete rotations, and add depth from the dozens of players still unsigned after nine weeks of the industry looking at its shadow. One executive recently referred to it as the forthcoming "free-for-all," and he's probably right — except for the free part.
In a frenzied marketplace of free-agent pursuits and overdue arbitration offers, the Cardinals will restart their search for how they'll finish games.
They won't lack for options.
They've already hinted at preferences.
At the opening of the offseason, the Cardinals' sought to sign a starter for the rotation — and did, lefty Steven Matz. They also wanted to add at least two relievers, either of whom could be part of holding leads in the late innings. Lefty T. J. McFarland re-signed quickly to a one-year, $2.5-million deal. An overture was made to Luis Garcia before he signed with San Diego, leaving the Cardinals with an unfinished shopping list as the lockout began.
They had conversations early in the winter with former Cardinal Joe Kelly and expressed interest in righthander Ryan Tepera. Both remain available, awaiting the league to press the play button and end the pause on transactions. And they are not alone as compelling additions.
"Relief pitching is still of interest," general manager Michael Girsch said shortly before the lockout began and public comments from Cardinals officials stopped. "What the title of that (reliever) is, I think, we've learned whatever title you put on it changes throughout the year. I wouldn't say the name on the role is as important as finding an effective reliever who can fit several roles."
Asked if closer might be one of those roles, Girsch referenced the incumbent.
"We have a pretty good one," he said.
Gallegos set
Although he did not throw the pitch that ended the season in the ninth inning of the wild-card game at Dodger Stadium, Giovanny Gallegos finished the year as the Cardinals' closer and will have the ninth inning when spring training opens.
As the Cardinals move their other recent closers All-Star Alex Reyes and Jordan Hicks to starter schedules and potential multi-inning assignments, the team would like to augment the roster with an understudy for Gallegos. The club seeks a reliever who could set up in the eighth, quash uprisings in the seventh, or handle the ninth.
Garcia pitched into that role after being acquired from the Yankees, and he illustrates the traits the Cardinals chase.
Garcia and McFarland joined the Cardinals midseason and both flourished with similar approaches — though different velocities. McFarland threw strikes and got grounders galore, and Garcia threw strikes and had a plunging pitch with velocity. Have sinker, will succeed. It's the same recipe that the Cardinals believe will work for Matz.
From 2017 through 2021, McFarland's 65% groundball rate ranks fourth highest among relievers. Hicks, with his 100-mph sinker, ranks seventh (63%).
By sorting for weak contact, groundball rate, sinkers, and most all of strikes — a lot of the same traits the Cardinals officials say are guiding their interests — a list of fits emerges.
Some are confirmed by sources as of interest to the Cardinals.
Some are just obviously their type.
All of relievers below are worth considering.
Several stand out.
Bullpen candidates
Kelly, a third-round draft pick by the Cardinals in 2009 and part of the 2013 pennant-winning pitching staff, has a 60.4% groundball rate since joining the Dodgers as a reliever. In the past three seasons with LA, he has a 26.9% strikeouts rate against a 9.8% walk rate in 105 1/3 innings. The Cardinals' contact with Kelly was described as initial but not aggressive in the days leading up to the lockout.
— Tepera, a reliever of interest with late-inning experience, had 74 strikeouts in 61 1/3 innings last season to go with a stingy 0.880 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched). His groundball rate was down from his career average of 44.1%, but he was among the best pitchers when it came to expected batting average and slugging based on the mild or minimal contact he invited.
— Righthander Robert Gsellman became a free agent when the Mets did not tender him a contract, and he has the look of a bounce-back candidate the Cardinals have signed before and will explore when the market resumes. Gsellman, 28, has a career 48% groundball rate to go with a sinker that averaged 93.9 mph last season. Limited by injury to 28 2/3 innings in the majors, Gsellman had a sub-6% walk rate.
— Righthander Brad Boxberger had strong strikeout total, 83 in 64 1/3 innings. Last with the Brewers, he adds a solid 1.067 WHIP, rates that are more intriguing at a larger ballpark, and experience in the ninth. He has 81 career saves, 41 of which came in 2015.
— Lefty Andrew Chafin, Tepera's Cubs teammate before they were traded last summer, had a 0.932 WHIP, solid numbers against righthander hitters, and a career groundball rate of 49.6%.
— That's slightly higher than righthander Archie Bradley. Two years removed from 18 saves for Arizona and five from a superb season in setup, Bradley has a career 48.7% groundball rate to go with a 56% groundball rate in 2021. Walks undermined his results in 2021, with 22 in 51 innings. The 29-year-old is looking for an opportunity such as the Cardinals have available, though they had not made contact with his agent before the lockout hit.
— Other free-agent relievers with compelling traits include Collin McHugh, who will be sought after as a starter or swingman because of his 0.938 WHIP and 1.55 ERA. He's versatile like the Cardinals want, but there's no opening in the rotation to assure him. Ian Kennedy, with his 1.101 WHIP in 2021, has closing experience and the Cardinals have past interest. Former Cardinal first-rounder Adam Ottavino has experience as closer but also walked 35 batters in 62 innings for Boston last season.
Trade possibilities
Teams have been unable to discuss trades with each other during the lockout so wading into the free-agent pool will be more expedient. But few possibilities could surface from other rosters during the spring, if not before the first workouts.
— Marlins lefty Richard Bleier is entering his final year before free agency. The 34-year-old reliever has a career groundball rate of 63%, and it's been 66.8% the past two seasons. In 2021, he had only six walks in 58 innings and seven strikeouts for every walk to pair with a career walk rate of 3.8%. Righthanded batters slugged .385 against him while lefties struck out 23 times in 90 at-bats.
— Baltimore's Tanner Scott, also a lefty, has more years of control to go with a 58% career groundball rate and 70 strikeouts in 54 innings last season.
Coming out of the lockout, teams still will have arbitration salaries to settle, by negotiation or hearings. Detroit is in that spot with former rookie of the year Michael Fulmer. The righthander had moments as a revelation in relief during his first full season back from elbow surgery. There are the makings of a second-act closer. He had 73 strikeouts against 20 walks in 69 2/3 innings, upped the velocity on his slider, and has a power sinker, at 95.7 mph. The Tigers' appetite for a trade if any will be clearer based on Fulmer's salary — and his role.
As he left the GM Meetings in November and neared a deal with Matz, John Mozeliak, Cardinals president of baseball operations, remarked: "We know that there is still work to be done in our bullpen."
That will still be there coming out of the lockout.
Surveying the available options shortly before the lockout began, a Cardinals executive noted the number of potential fits and the availability "at every price point."
A few will command multi-year deals. If the condensed signing period creates a game of musical chairs, some will jump at one-year, high-dollar offers to assure a job. Others could go for minor-league deals and, as Pat Neshek did for the Cardinals, turn that into a setup role and future earnings. After all when it comes to relievers, their role isn't always revealed by the contract they with which they start.
It's how they finish.
