On Saturday, incumbent Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto cemented her reelection victory for a second six-year term, securing the 50th seat in the chamber for the Democrats, and meaning they will retain their Senate majority in the 118th Congress.
With the Georgia Senate contest headed to a run-off between sitting Senator Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker on December 6, Democrats have the chance to increase their majority to 51 seats. This might not sound like much, but it would have huge consequences.
The 50-50 Senate split of the past two years was a rare anomaly in US history. It’s only the fourth occasion it has been evenly divided, and the longest duration of such balance. It also led to 26 tie-breaking votes by Vice-President Kamala Harris, the most in any single term and third most ever behind John C Calhoun (31) and John Adams (29).
Despite the deadlock, the Democrats managed a prolific output of landmark legislation, including the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act, and the $737 billion Inflation Reduction Act. And it confirmed 84 federal judges nominated by President Joe Biden, with another 57 nominations awaiting approval during the remaining lame duck session. Should these confirmations be finalised by year’s end, Biden’s judicial appointments will have outpaced all his predecessors.
However, the divided Senate means that Republicans have been able to stall or block initiatives and nominations, including ambassadors and executive branch officials, using procedural manoeuvres and delay tactics, while other measures have been diluted or frustrated by the intransigence of Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
By sometimes siding with the 50 Republicans rather than their 48 party colleagues, they prevented the passage of laws that would have reinforced and enhanced voting rights protections, codified Roe to guarantee reproductive rights for women nationwide, maintained child tax credits to families in need, and restored the assault weapons ban.
With a 51-seat majority, the Senate would be more efficient. At the start of every term the Senate must pass an organising resolution to set its procedures. These include committee and subcommittee assignments, budgets, staffing allocations, meeting rooms, and other resources.
The resolution also covers rules about debates and motions that keep Senate business flowing, and limit opportunities for the minority party to gum up the works and slow progress. Given the Senate has limited time on its calendar to accommodate the complex scheduling of all its responsibilities, 51 seats would provide majority leader Chuck Schumer leeway to optimise its workflow.
And 51 seats would also mean no single senator could hold the majority hostage for their own political whims. Even Joe Manchin, whose profile has soared over the past two years as he proved a constant thorn to the Biden administration’s agenda, hopes the next Senate won’t be a 50-50 split.
Another advantage that would be afforded by Warnock’s return would be a solid counterweight to a possible GOP majority in the House of Representatives.
Republicans have been vocal about their plans to impeach Biden and other key officials, conduct investigations into nominated targets such as Hunter Biden and Dr Anthony Fauci, and pass extremist bills to ban abortion, slash social cecurity and Medicare, repeal climate change action and block support for Ukraine. They also intend to dismantle the January 6 Committee and end scrutiny of the Capitol insurrection. Their humbling in the midterms has done nothing to moderate their ambitions.
With a 51-seat Senate majority, Democrats could make short work of much of the Republicans’ revenge checklist. Indeed, the infighting and blame game that has erupted within GOP ranks might make any slim House majority they muster unworkable. And with counting still under way, Democrats could yet maintain control of the House. Even if they don’t, vacancies are bound to arise during the next term that could tip the balance of power back to them. In that event, a House majority and clear Senate majority could usher swift progress on key outstanding items on the Democrats’ wish list.
Senate Democrats could assume oversight of the January 6 investigations, if they choose. The House may opt to share its documents and other materials with the Senate during the lame duck session, which would bypass Republican efforts to stymie further inquiries.
An extra seat for six years also means Democrats have one less seat to win or defend to retain power in future elections. As the 2022 midterms have shown, every seat matters.
All this means much is at stake in Georgia on December 6. The odds favour Warnock. He finished a point ahead of Walker last week, just shy of the 50% threshold required. He has experience winning a run-off.
Meanwhile, without the prospect of Senate control or the aid of Governor Brian Kemp’s coattails to motivate discouraged Republican voters to turn out in the winter weather, Walker faces an uphill battle. The outcome matters more than most people realise.
