Australians can expect a cooler and wetter Easter long weekend than normal this year as a cold trough makes its way across the country.
In Sydney, Good Friday should begin with a sunny morning and reach a maximum of 26C, but showers or even a thunderstorm are likely to hit in the afternoon.
Saturday should be mostly sunny with a high of 26C, while Sunday is forecast to hit 21C and to be mostly sunny with a slight chance of a shower.
A cool change is expected throughout New South Wales on Monday, with possible showers in Sydney and a maximum of 21C.
“On Saturday the showers and storms will contract to the south [of the state] before contracting to the south-east ranges on Sunday, [with conditions] finally becoming dry on Monday,” said Sarah Scully, a senior meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology.
Moving to the south of the country, a series of cold fronts will see wet, cold and windy conditions develop over the long weekend for Melbourne and Hobart.
On Friday, there is a high chance of showers for Melbourne, with a maximum temperature of 22C. Showers are likely to continue throughout the long weekend as temperatures drop, with a maximum of 19C forecast for Saturday, 15C for Sunday and 16C on Monday.
“[There is] the potential for increased swell to develop on Sunday into Monday for Tassie and Victoria,” Scully added, with snow likely in the alpine areas of both states on Saturday night.
In Hobart, there is a high chance of showers over the entire long weekend, with Friday’s maximum temperature forecast to be 22C, dropping to 14C by Sunday.
South Australia can expect cold and windy conditions in the east on Friday and Saturday, with sunny breaks developing on Sunday and Monday.
There is a high chance of showers in Adelaide from Friday through to Sunday, with a slight chance of showers on Monday, making for a fairly wet Easter. Maximum temperatures are forecast at 21C for Friday and about 19C for the remainder of the long weekend.
Queensland faces showers and thunderstorms on Friday, potentially severe about the south-east, however conditions should start to settle down from Saturday.
“Temperatures will be … above average on Friday [before] contracting to the east on Saturday [as] much cooler conditions extend across southern parts of Queensland,” Scully said.
Friday should reach temperatures of up to 29C in Brisbane before showers hit in the afternoon or evening. The rest of the weekend is mostly sunny, with maximum temperatures of 33C on Saturday, 30C on Sunday and 27C on Monday.
Western Australia is likely to see mild, dry conditions over the long weekend, with a risk of showers and isolated storms away from the capital city.
In Perth, a maximum temperature of 26C is forecast for Friday, however there is a decent chance of rain. This should clear up for the remainder of the long weekend with tops of 26C on Saturday, 27C on Sunday and 25C on Monday.
In Darwin, there is the high chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire long weekend, with maximum temperatures set to reach around 32C.
A severe thunderstorm is likely in Canberra on Friday, with showers continuing on Saturday, however the rain should clear up in the capital on Sunday and Monday when maximum temperatures are forecast at about 16C.
Despite the wet forecast, Australians can expect a drier-than-usual autumn, according to the bureau’s seasonal outlook for May to July.
“It’s expected to have below-average rainfall throughout that period, but that doesn’t mean [the country is] not going to get any showers at all,” Scully said.
The upcoming seasonal outlook reflects the end of La Niña. After declaring it to be officially over in mid-March, the BoM shifted straight to an El Niño watch, declaring there is a 50% chance it will form this year.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than average, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation, meaning equatorial winds that typically blow from east to west can stall, or even reverse.
Rainfall tends to shift away from eastern Australia during El Niño, and the risk of drought, heatwaves and bushfires becomes even greater for parts of the country.
Our planet's oceans have been warming in recent decades and the recent breakdown of La Niña has nudged global sea surface temperatures to record-breaking levels.
— Ben Domensino (@Ben_Domensino) March 29, 2023
Data available here: https://t.co/POHCvG6Py4 pic.twitter.com/ADcrv8FOBQ
The seasonal outlook follows record-breaking temperates across parts of Australia in March.
