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ABC News
ABC News
National
Paulina Vidal

How Western Sydney voted and why the results were difficult to predict

The seat of Fowler in south-west Sydney caused a major upset for the Labor Party. (AAP: Dan Himbrechts)

Voters in Western Sydney have delivered both major parties a "mixed bag" of results following Saturday's federal election.

The Labor Party managed to increase its vote in most of its marginal seats, but lost Fowler in south-west Sydney — for the first time since its creation in 1984 — to a high-profile local independent.

Meanwhile, the Liberal vote across the state was decimated at the hands of teal independents, but the party managed to retain some seats in Western Sydney.

ABC chief election analyst Antony Green said there was no unifying trend across the seats.

"So it's a bit of a mixed bag of results … there's no general pattern of swings across Western Sydney," he said.

A stand-out for Labor was the key seat of Greenway. Covering 81 square kilometres in Blacktown City Council, Michelle Rowland retained the seat with an increased swing of more than 6 per cent.

In the marginal Liberal seat of Lindsay, on the western edge of Sydney, sitting member Melissa McIntosh was re-elected with a small swing against Labor.

And the seats of Macarthur and Werriwa, in outer south-west Sydney, have again gone to Labor with almost no swing.

Michelle Rowland has kept the key seat of Greenway for Labor. (AAP: Mick Tsikas)

The United Australia Party polled strongly in a number of seats, including the safe Labor seat of McMahon, winning 9.4 per cent of the vote there and, in Werriwa, 9 per cent.

Mr Green said the outcome had more to do with how hard the parties had campaigned in the electorate.

"The results we've seen in Western Sydney seem to be more related to the amount of effort a party put in. 

"So the Labor Party campaigned strongly in several electorates and got swings to it. Whereas, seats where they didn't do a huge amount of campaigning, like Lindsey, they didn't get much reward at all."

In the seat of Fowler, where Labor parachuted former NSW Labor premier, federal frontbencher and outgoing senator Kristina Keneally, the strongest campaigning came from the independent, Dai Le.

Yesterday, Ms Keneally conceded, while behind by a little more than 3,000 votes.

Businesswoman and deputy mayor for Fairfield City Council, Ms Le said her victory was a response to the Labor Party overlooking local Vietnamese Australian lawyer Tu Le to contest the seat in favour of experienced outsider Ms Keneally.

The party's decision, at the time, caused controversy, with claims Labor was paying lip-service to issues of diversity.

"The Fowler community is saying, 'Look, we are going to have our own voice. We're going to stand up. We're going to speak up for ourselves'," the Vietnamese-Australian candidate told the ABC yesterday.

NSW Labor leader Chris Minns said the party would be looking closely at the result but there was a "whole bunch of messages" to take away from the poll.

He acknowledged that candidates had to reflect the views of their constituents, but stopped short of admitting it had been a mistake to pre-select Ms Keneally into a seat she was not from.

"Well, look, obviously she gave it her all. She's gone out with dignity," he said.

"But the lesson for all members of parliament is you have to re-elect and work hard for your local community.

"And that's, obviously, a lesson that every political party will take from an election like we've just seen."

According to Mr Green, bringing in an external candidate "encouraged the independent to run" in Fowler.

He said it was a strategy that Labor would have to re-think in future.

In the seat of Parramatta, however, Labor's hand-picked candidate from the eastern suburbs, Andrew Charlton, retained the seat for the party.

On Sunday night, Mr Charlton had registered 54.6 per cent of the vote compared to 45.4 per cent for Scott Morrison captain's pick, Maria Kovacic.

The NSW Liberal Party's result was an unmitigated disaster, according to NSW Treasurer and senior moderate Matt Kean.

He acknowledged that the Liberals did not get their choice of candidates "right".

"We need to make sure we're putting forward our best and brightest, that reflects the communities they're looking to serve," he said.

"I'm confident … [we can] come up with the winning formula that we need to get the right candidates for the right seats."

He also said the Coalition had a lot to reflect on in Western Sydney.

"I'm reflecting on the fact that we need to be focused on those communities," he said.

"We need to be focused on the concerns that they have around building infrastructure, providing schools hospitals, growing the economy, creating jobs and raising living standards — and ensuring that families in Western Sydney are able to give their kids the best education that they're able to access quality health care when they need it."

Anthony Albanese on what he'll do first as the new PM.
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