Two barrages of rockets fired from Lebanon have killed one Israeli civilian in a kibbutz and injured another person, in attacks likely to add to political pressure inside Israel for a strong strike against Hezbollah and complicate a US-led push to de-escalate regional tensions.
America has been leading a global diplomatic effort to deter Israel from hitting Beirut or Lebanese infrastructure in retaliation for a weekend rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children as they played football.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has vowed a “harsh” response. Airstrikes on targets in Lebanon on Sunday and Monday, that killed one Hezbollah fighter, are seen as just an initial foray as the government and military consider their options.
Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said on Tuesday he does not believe full blown war is “inevitable”. Diplomats from the US have been urging restraint from both parties, sending their messages to Hezbollah through intermediaries including Lebanon’s foreign minister.
“While we’ve seen a lot of activity on Israel’s northern border, we remain concerned about the potential of this escalating into a full blown fight. And I don’t believe that a fight is inevitable,” Austin said.
“We’d like to see things resolved in a diplomatic fashion,” he added during a joint press conference in Manila, after security talks between himself, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and their Philippine counterparts.
Countries including the UK, Germany, France and America have urged citizens to leave Lebanon or avoid travelling there as tensions mount.
The British foreign secretary, David Lammy, said on Tuesday that events were “fast-moving” and that British nationals were advised “to leave Lebanon and not to travel to the country”.
“My message to British nationals in Lebanon is clear – leave.” @DavidLammy
— Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (@FCDOGovUK) July 30, 2024
⚠️The FCDO also advises against travel to Lebanon.
Read the current travel advice here: https://t.co/NlKYKGCj70 pic.twitter.com/vesnPxoXBr
Many airlines have cancelled flights to Beirut. Greece’s Aegean Airlines and Germany’s Condor were the latest to suspend services, joining others including Royal Jordanian, Air France and Lufthansa.
Druze residents of Majdal Shams, the town hit by the rocket, have said they do not want strikes on Lebanon in response to their own tragedy. On Monday, many came out to protest against Netanyahu when he visited the town.
“We reject the shedding of even a single drop of blood under the pretext of avenging our children,” Druze lay and religious leaders said in a statement after Netanyahu’s visit, noting their faith forbids killing and revenge.
That is not a mainstream view in Israel where there is heavy political pressure to strike hard in retaliation. The education minister, Yoav Kisch, from Netanyahu’s Likud party, has called for a strong response “even if it means entering all-out war”. The far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said “all of Lebanon must pay the price” for the attack.
Tuesday’s rocket attacks, which killed a 30-year-old man in the yard of his home in HaGoshrim kibbutz, will only add to that pressure.
Hezbollah and Israel have been trading fire across the Lebanese border since last October, with daily exchanges gradually intensifying. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced from homes on both sides of the border.
The US says both sides have indicated they want to avoid all-out war. But the scale of the attacks and the high stakes on both sides mean the risk of slipping into full blown conflict through miscalculation, overreach or accident is high.
Israel and the US say Hezbollah was responsible for the strike on Majdal Shams, saying remnants of an Iranian missile were at the site. The militant group has denied responsibility.
Lebanese officials say they are braced for a significant Israeli response, but hope it will be restrained enough to give Hezbollah an off-ramp from further escalation.
“If they [Israel] avoid civilians and they avoid Beirut and its suburbs, then their attack could be well calculated,” the deputy parliament speaker, Elias Bou Saab, who has been in touch with US mediators, told Reuters.
Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, whose country backs Hezbollah and Hamas, warned Israel against attacking Lebanon, which he said would be “a great mistake with heavy consequences”.
Even if the latest tensions can be resolved without further escalation, Hezbollah says an end to its campaign is contingent on an end to fighting in Gaza, so the threat of war will remain, said Danny Citrinowicz, an analyst with Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
“Without a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, it is only a matter of time before we reach another conflict in the north of Israel,” he said in a post on X. “Only if Hamas and Israel reach a ceasefire, war between Israel and Hezbollah can be prevented.”
