After 697 days and one false start, the “hermit” state of Western Australia is on the precipice of rejoining the rest of the world – again.
The premier, Mark McGowan, has promised to throw open WA’s gates from midnight Wednesday as the state moves headlong into its first full-scale Covid wave of the pandemic, with daily case numbers swelling into four digits.
Perth has just emerged from its hottest summer on record and the state is still grappling with a food supply crisis caused by flood damage to the country’s only east-west rail link.
For many, being locked inside WA for the best part of two years has been a nightmare.
Some businesses have crumbled from a lack of tourists and foreign workers, while families and friends have grieved the forced separation.
Others have lived the dream. With just a scattered couple of short lockdown events, Western Australians have faced mild restrictions and the devastation of the Covid pandemic was locked out – until now.
The number of active infections is nudging 6,000, and although WA’s health system is poised to move from amber to red alert when the border opens, McGowan admits continuing to seal off WA is a waste of time now that the main Covid threat is coming from within the state.
He says the state leads the nation’s vaccination program with close to 99% of the population above the age of 12 double-dosed.
Third-dose vaccination rates have hit 64%.
“The government intervened in ways other states haven’t in order to save lives and I think the evidence is there that the measures we put in place have worked,” McGowan says.
There are currently 16 people in WA hospitals with Covid, some of them with other conditions, and no one in intensive care with the disease.
“But the advice is, from our health professionals, that the numbers will grow rapidly in hospital and we have to put these [level 2 restriction] measures in place to save lives,” McGowan says.
The new restrictions
Controversial social distancing measures, which include forcing children from year 3 upwards to wear face masks, also come into effect from 12.01am Thursday.
Among the new rules is that home gatherings will be limited to 10 people indoors and outdoors, except at weddings and funerals, and the 2sq/m restrictions will be enforced for venues such as hospitality, entertainment and night clubs.
The long list of new restrictions is expected to stay in place for four weeks, the premier says.
Meanwhile, the government tabled long-awaited WA health department modelling on the Omicron variant eight days ago in parliament.
It projected that Covid would peak at the end of March at more than 10,000 daily new cases, and around four deaths a day. Forecasts say 443 people will be hospitalised at that time and 56 patients will need intensive care.
In six months, about 500,000 West Australians are predicted to have been infected.
The border delay
WA had been scheduled to reopen on Saturday 5 February when double-dose vaccination rates in the state hit 90%.
McGowan dramatically backflipped on the timing just 16 days out from the promised opening date.
He denied state hospitals weren’t ready, said Omicron had changed the game and he did not want to see an overwhelming wave like those in Sydney and Melbourne.
The condemnation was swift, and so was the dip in McGowan’s polling numbers.
Australia’s most popular premier nosedived from an approval rating of 91% in September 2020 to 64% by February 2022, according to a phone-based People’s Voice poll.
At the time, the head of the Australian Medical Association, Dr Omar Khorshid, said the premier was a “one-trick pony” and labelled the border delay a dangerous decision.
Khorsid wasn’t alone in opposing the delay and pushing the Omicron peak closer to winter with more than 1,000 WA doctors signing a petition opposing the hard border.
At the time, McGowan had not released any modelling to back his decision. He instead said the advice from his chief health officer was that delaying the reopening would allow time for people to receive a third-dose vaccination – increasing protection from Omicron from 4% to 64%.
The WA opposition leader, Mia Davies, says the premier’s inconsistent messaging has caused the public to lose trust in its leader.
“There will be significant work to do in rebuilding WA’s reputation as an amazing place to live, work, and invest, after two years of telling people to stay away,” the Nationals leader says.
“The McGowan government has starved our hospitals of resources for five years. It’s yet to be seen how the health system will cope with significant Covid-19 case numbers.”
On the ground, one of Perth’s biggest beachfront restaurants has just dropped its breakfast offering.
Odyssea City Beach managing director Fabio Hupfer says the new restrictions are keeping customers away and alongside a labour shortage for the past 20 months, the 366-seat venue had to sacrifice something to survive.
“We have one of the highest inoculated regions and states in the world – why the heck do we have to have all these restrictions when it has such an impact?” Hupfer says.
The Tourism Council WA chief executive, Evan Hall, says the border restrictions have devastated WA’s tourism business.
“Events have borne the brunt of border closures and restrictions. Caps on events need to be lifted as soon as possible,” Hall said. “The eastern states are now removing business restrictions and travel testing requirements.
“WA cannot afford to be more restricted than the east coast for longer than necessary or we will lose events, students, workers and tourists to states with less severe restrictions.”
McGowan promises this time he will stay true to his word, but that the coming month will be WA’s most difficult of the entire pandemic.
Tonight’s border opening will be the first test.
