March Madness is upon us, and the release of Sunday’s 2022 men’s NCAA tournament field of 68 means it’s time to start analyzing seedings, matchups and potential Cinderellas.
Over in the West Region, Gonzaga seeks a repeat regional crown after earning the bracket’s No. 1 overall seed for the second straight year. But a slew of challengers stand in the Zags’ way, including Duke, which beat the Bulldogs back in November. With the path to the Final Four set, we’re sizing up the players, teams and games to watch in each region.
Who will make it out of San Francisco and punch a ticket to New Orleans? Here’s our West Region preview and prediction.
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State of the No. 1 seed: Gonzaga
Gonzaga rolls in as the No. 1 of all No. 1s for the second straight tournament, but without the burden of carrying an undefeated record. The Zags had competition in the West Coast Conference tournament from both San Francisco and Saint Mary’s, but that’s more a sign of the league’s strength than vulnerability from Mark Few’s team.
This Gonzaga team still has some key parts from 2021, most notably leading scorer Drew Timme (17.5 points per game) and point guard Andrew Nembhard (5.7 assists, 1.6 steals). But it swapped out one super-talented freshman (Jalen Suggs) for another in 7-footer Chet Holmgren—who might end up being the most intriguing player in the field. Holmgren is rail thin but surprisingly tough and incredibly skilled. He is a strong rim protector, averaging 3.6 blocked shots, but also has made 40 three-pointers on the season. The other keys for Gonzaga are the arrival of Penn State transfer Rasir Bolton at guard and the emergence of sophomore wing Julian Strawther.
Gonzaga has the talent, experience, coaching and offensive flow to go all the way. But it will have to survive some alley fights, and this team must prove that it is physically tougher than the one that was punked by Baylor in the championship game last year.
Toughest draw: No. 1 Gonzaga
Despite being the overall No. 1 seed, Gonzaga got no great favors from the selection committee. There are numerous potential traps on the way to New Orleans, starting with a second-round game against either a very good Boise State team coached by former Few assistant Leon Rice, or the mercurial-but-athletic Memphis Tigers. A potential Sweet 16 matchup with Arkansas also would be a steep athletic challenge against an opponent that won 15 of its last 18 games. And the regional final could be against either Duke playing with the emotional freight of getting a retiring Mike Krzyzewski to one more Final Four, or a Texas Tech team that would supply the kind of vicious physical challenge Baylor did a year ago.
Team that could bust your bracket: No. 8 Boise State
Boise State got a brutal first-weekend challenge, facing Memphis in the first round and potentially Gonzaga in the second—but the Broncos are extremely good and could throw the West into chaos. Boise is great defensively and patient enough offensively that, if it controls the pace of play, could frustrate the up-tempo Tigers and Zags. They have a lot of length, with five of their top six players 6’7” or taller, and sufficient athleticism. The Achilles’ heel is foul shooting: Boise shoots just 65% from the line, worst of any team in the tournament.
Player to watch: Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
Holmgren is so unique that he’s a must-watch. There aren’t many 7-footers who can shoot 41% from three and lead the break, but as noted above he also is an old-school defensive anchor in the middle and Few uses him effectively in both roles. You can also expect to see plenty of his father in the stands—Dave Holmgren, himself a 7-footer, has been videotaping Chet’s games since sixth grade, using an old-school camcorder. We’ll also see whether the family can get their black lab, Slammer, in the arena as they did at the West Coast tourney. A potential regional final matchup of the top two freshmen—Holmgren and Duke’s Paolo Banchero—would be a juicy subplot to the Coach K main story line. (The region also has a third freshman who figures to be a high draft pick in Memphis strongman Jalen Duren.)
Most intriguing matchup: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Notre Dame
No. 6 Alabama is on upset alert against whoever emerges from the First Four between Rutgers or Notre Dame. But the Scarlet Knights in particular pose a threat with their size and defensive tenacity. The Crimson Tide piled up enough big wins to draw a No. 6 seed but haven’t played well in a while, losing three straight and 10 of their last 18. Defensive indifference and interior weakness make Nate Oats’s team very vulnerable.
Regional finalists: Gonzaga and Texas Tech
Gonzaga and Texas Tech. The Zags have the firepower that should carry them through the first three games. But the Red Raiders loom as the San Francisco spoiler—they could end Krzyzewski’s career and then pose a serious threat to Gonzaga with their relentless defensive and physicality. Mark Adams is in his first year as Tech’s head coach, so he has to prove he can match the experience and composure of Coach K and Few. But he has the nation’s No. 1 defense, which is a nice fallback.
Pick to win the region: Gonzaga
As stated above, this will be tough sledding for Gonzaga. The potential matchups are problematic in rounds two, three and four. But they’re plenty good enough. The Zags beat Texas Tech in December on a neutral court and lost to Duke the day after Thanksgiving, so there is some familiarity for the top seeds in the region with one another. Gonzaga has been fueled by the near-miss of last April and will be anxious to get away from WCC play and raise its game to a championship level. The Zags are going to their third Final Four.
Full West Region:
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Georgia State
No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Notre Dame
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Montana State
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Davidson
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Cal State Fullerton
