It was another former son of AS Monaco, Arsene Wenger, who made the prediction in 2017 that the future of the transfer market would be dominated as much by players running their contracts down as it would blockbuster fees shattering records each window.
“I think in the future, you will see it more and more. Why? Because the transfers are so high, even for normal players,” he said, as he entered the final campaign of his reign at Arsenal. “You will see more and more players going into the final year of the contract because no club will want to pay the amount demanded... in the next 10 years, it will become usual.”
Wenger’s logic was that the rate of inflation of transfer fees was such, and occupied by such a shrinking number of teams, that buying a player would become unaffordable or, at least, economically unviable so therefore teams would increasingly look to free agency. While players would know they’re best chance of maximising their value in contract terms, would be as a free agent, therefore it was in their own self-interest to see their contracts out, as opposed to pushing for a transfer.
Of course, he was speaking in relation to the very top level of the game, because that’s where the upper limit is set, and also without the foresight of Covid-19 - which you can very much forgive him for - but, whether through luck or design, a lot of what Wenger claimed has come to pass in the EFL. The market outside the top-flight, beyond those equipped with parachute payments, is now largely one of loans and frees. The only money that really talks with any consistency is signing-on fees and wages.
Bristol City’s business has been exactly that, with Kal Naismith, Kane Wilson and Stefan Bajic all arriving for nothing in terms of fees, but receiving pay rises on their previous salaries. There is such little disposal income available to most clubs at this level, unless a significant sale is negotiated with, invariably, a Premier League club.
Returning to Wenger’s words, we may be bending the narrative a little here but it is increasingly relevant with the current contract conundrum City find themselves dealing with, as Han-Noah Massengo remains a Robins player but has 11 months remaining on his agreement, with little credible transfer interest (at the moment) and no indication he has any willingness to sign anything to extend his stay in BS3 beyond next summer.
What City deem as a fair price for the 21-year-old, we're guessing somewhere north of £3 million, is not in any danger of being met with clubs in France, Germany and potentially England knowing that they can sign the midfielder next summer for a fraction of that price in terms of compensation.
And that 12-month time period is relevant, because Massengo is not a plug-in-and-play 27-year-old who’s ready for first-team action, he’s very much a long-term project. Thereby, with spending so scarce, clubs will rather wait for an individual they’re going to have to be patient with anyway. The only reason someone would buy him now, is to ensure he’s their player ahead of the inevitable auction in 2023.
And, sorry to say, has Massengo done enough over a consistent period of time to warrant that sort of affection? Probably not. There are lots of young, dynamic, central midfielders out there - it’s among the most over-subscribed positions in the world. Quite simply, paying for him now, unless you really, really, really want him from a personal point of view, just isn’t worth it.
From Massengo’s own perspective, he knows this, and while it may be slightly disappointing to discover you’re not as valued as perhaps people in your ear might be telling you, it’s driven to an extent by external financial pressures but also means that while tumbleweed may exist right now, once you can start talking about a pre-contract agreement in January, it could well resemble more of a gold rush.
He’s also just turned 21, there’s no need for him to personally push for a deal - he also has time on his side and can assess how the market fluctuates and whether or not that’ll be in his favour.
Not a lot of this benefits Bristol City, of course, but this is the nub of the issue and probably why Nigel Pearson delivered a sense of audible exasperation on Monday night when discussing the midfielder’s future with Geoff Twentyman on BBC Radio Bristol.
"You've got to ask the player that because I've got no idea," he said. "The offer's been on the table for the season more or less and again when people talk about a player's worth... a player's worth for him at the moment here is he's a squad member who may get pitch time. That's it.
"You know my thoughts on players running contracts down and we as a club need to have policies that don't allow that in the future. We've invested a lot of money and time in him, and unfortunately, we're at a point where he's in the last year of his contract and there's nothing happening.”
It’s a noble stance, but in relation to the here and now, as Pearson knows, City are pretty much powerless.
They’ve done all they can in terms of trying to keep Massengo, by offering him a new deal (and how high, realistically, can they go for a third or fourth-choice centre midfielder)? But it’s remained unsigned for almost eight months now. This still could change, but unless they want to up their offer - and it isn’t even clear that’s what he wants, anyway - there aren’t too many other levers they can pull.
You can only sell a player, if someone wants to buy them. At the risk of repeating a point, there are plenty of clubs who would like to have him in their squad, but aren’t willing or able to pay for him. Therefore they wait for the 2023 sweepstakes, as will be the case with a number of players.
Massengo won’t sign, nobody will buy him, so he remains a City player with a September 1 threshold approaching that would mean him crossing into territory that Pearson is keen to avoid. But, he too, is limited in his influence beyond personally motivating the player to sign. Because there’s not much he can do to get someone to make a decent offer, that’s out of everyone’s control at Ashton Gate.
There’s another uncomfortable side to this situation, which complicates it even further and that is: can City even afford to sell him? Pearson has four first-choice deep-lying centre midfielders: Massengo, Joe Williams, Matty James and Andy King.
We don’t want to go over old ground but all bar Massengo suffered medium to long-term injuries last season and the latter is a player/coach who’s now 33. Take the 21-year-old out of the equation, and resources look very, very thin. To the point, you even start contemplating heeding Steve Cotterill’s advice and bringing Taylor Moore back from loan to play there.
The never-fancied-her-anyways are beginning to emerge in force, aligning with this slightly uncomfortable conclusion to his time at the club, claiming the Frenchman is very much expendable and his impact has been overstated.
But Massengo is, or at least can be, very good and taking him out of the squad certainly weakens it to a significant degree. And, it's all well a good saying, "go and sign a replacement" but the pick of the market has largely moved on by now.
In a perfect world, an early sale would have been agreed for him and some of that money they directed into bringing in a replacement, or even two others in that role. As the dates roll towards the end of August, the harder it is to sanction the sale of Massengo from a sporting perspective, because then the pressure is really on to recruit, and the chances of success in that scenario start to diminish.
What is lurking on the horizon is a real worst-case scenario for the club; that is, a late and derisory bid right at the end of the window that, due to their new maxims of not letting a player run his contract run, the Robins have to accept but then have little time or means to get a suitable replacement in.
We now have three examples of City midfielders who were all “for sale” but the club had to take minimal transfer fees or nothing at all to get them out of the club - Adam Nagy last summer and, this year, Kasey Palmer and Tyreeq Bakinson.
Massengo isn’t quite in their position yet, and his case is slightly different because he remains a consistent first-term presence, or “squad player” as Pearson has said, but any thoughts of City getting a substantial fee for him, whether that be tomorrow, August 31 or somewhere in between, should probably be banished.
Which then brings us on to the logical conclusion, City keep Massengo because it impacts the squad too much to sell him, while the money being offered doesn’t mitigate such risk, and they simply swallow their pride, and conventional logic, and accept whatever compensation will come their way via a tribunal in 2023. That does have a caveat because it keeps the window open to convince him to stay and that his future would be best served at Ashton Gate.
You’ll groan at the example, but that’s precisely what happened with Callum O’Dowda in 2019 - albeit in stronger financial climates. Having seen an opportunity to be sold end in January and then the summer, and his deal expiring in 2020, the winger agreed a new three-year agreement in September.
Granted, that ended up largely backfiring as O'Dowda left the club this summer following three years of injury-related anti-climax but it Massengo is a different player and, as unclear a path it may be, it could be their only realistic hope of finding some idea of resolution.
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