Welsh Labour should, by all accounts, be deliriously happy.
The party had a Senedd election in 2021 that defied even their expectations. The 30 seats they won – exactly half those available – meant they could, with a little help, pursue the agenda Mark Drakeford wanted.
The pandemic has resulted in not just a public recognition and profile for Mr Drakeford but a positive one that voters engaged with while their Conservative rivals in Westminster have created an almost infinite number of negative headlines. Recent polling showed that the Conservatives would be wiped out in Wales in a general election.
Read more: We asked Mark Drakeford if he still plans to stand down
It should mean there was a buoyancy when their numbers met in Llandudno especially as there are just 53 days before council elections in Wales where Labour has historically done well. But their meeting in Llandudno felt a little flat – noticeably so for one of the headline acts, Sir Keir Starmer's speech. There seemed to be fewer people there – Covid could of course be to blame for that and noticeably there were fewer council leaders or councillors who were no doubt choosing to spend their weekend campaigning for an imminent election rather than in a conference hall.
Nothing announced was particularly new or headline-worthy and when Mr Drakeford listed the achievements of his government there was nothing that made you swoon with excitement. There were the customary standing ovations for the First Minister and Sir Keir, who made a brief visit, but less of the giddiness than conferences usually evoke.
No political party is immune to bickering, let alone Labour, and it means that while Labour has plenty to celebrate there are mutterings distracting from what should have been a heck of a party.
The party may be in power once more in the Senedd but getting that has taken a co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru. One aspect of unhappiness, in some quarters, is that deal being struck at all. There were questions about how much consultation there was on it and one source told me that rather than working hard to secure the backing of the sole Lib Dem Jane Dodds they opted for a formal deal with Plaid Cymru – a party which had a disastrous election. As someone told me: "Plaid were sinking and we threw Adam Price a life jacket."
Mr Drakeford has repeatedly said he will look at reforming the Senedd. That means potentially changing the voting system from its current constituency and list form, the model of which could in turn change boundaries, and most admit that diversity needs to be improved and that may require quotas or possibly legislation to make that happen. There is also the continuing conversation about the Senedd needing more members to function properly.
A motion to support proposals to increase the number of politicians in the Senedd from 60 to between 80 and 100, with a voting system "at least as proportional" as the one we currently use, was voted on by delegates in Llandudno who gave it their unanimous backing. This is something for Labour to celebrate and seasoned observers said they never really expected such a show of support.
But in some circles there are questions over why Mr Drakeford is pursuing something which will have an unknown result for his party. There is an acceptance that it is impossible to model what voters will do if you change a voting system. One hypothetical is that it could cost Welsh Labour its dominance in Wales, and thus the Welsh Government, and there are questions from party members if that risk is worth it.
A new system could rework boundaries too meaning the seats we think are safe for one party may completely change allegiance.
On the flip side of those questioning voices are those which told me Labour has looked at the numbers properly – and not outdated ones but up-to-date figures. If it opts for a Senedd of 80 members then, yes, it could cause problems for their dominance but 100 would give them the numbers they need. There is then a balance to be struck for what is right politically and what is right in the argument of how you make the Senedd function better. But whatever happens in this area Labour need support to get changes through the Senedd and while Labour delegates gave Mr Drakeford their backing to go ahead with negotiations Plaid Cymru will have to agree.
Mr Drakeford used part of his conference speech to praise councils and the way they responded to the pandemic. In the response to Covid, council leaders – of all colours – were involved in those conversations from an incredibly early stage and given a seat at the table. That makes sense, you'd have thought. There is overlap between the things councils look at and the Welsh Government handle. UK Government provided vaccines and a better track and track system but the physical handing out of PPE, distribution of supplies and equipment, was more local.
But one criticism of Mr Drakeford is that he is still, at heart, at Glamorganshire councillor with that mindset and with some of those people he worked with decades ago still with him now. Accusations of a loyalty to councils hasn't been helped by putting councils firmly at the table of power which in turn meant council leaders were better-informed than MPs.
That has absolutely helped relations with councils, who, combined with the extra money, will not complain about the Welsh Government. The pandemic has seen them included at the big table and that's something they want to continue, and they are hopeful it will, but it has damaged the feelings of some MPs.
Since devolution there have been many questions about where the power truly is held for Wales and many continuing arguments about who should be talking on what issues. Whether MSs or MPs truly hold the power is a question that has satisfied many a political type.
For example foreign affairs is not devolved and the Welsh Government has no say. But the counter-argument is that the UK's response to the war in Ukraine, for instance, will directly impact Wales. Granting the necessary visas and allowing refugees into Britain may ultimately be the decision of the UK Government but the health, social service, education element of housing those refugees does fall to the Welsh Government. So surely they should discuss it?
But getting involved in non-devolved areas does put some noses out of joint. I'm told when delegates here in Llandudno wanted to discuss the Iraq War it fell firmly under the category of: "No, that's a UK matter". But there was no way this weekend wouldn't feature numerous mentions of Ukraine and an emergency motion by the GMB Union was added to Saturday's agenda. That will have raised eyebrows in some Westminster circles that despite many protestations that the UK Government should stay out of Welsh business Welsh Labour hypocritically stuck its nose in.
There are some MPs who are no fan of Mr Drakeford and there are probably also MSs and party members who disagree with him. But, huge disclaimer here, there is never a full cohort of MPs at this conference so the lack of attendance of the vast majority isn't a sign that all is not well and any concerns voiced should be taken with a pinch of salt. Politicians do, as a generalisation, tend to have egos which they like massaged. MPs in particular are twitchy especially as a review of their constituencies which could cut their numbers is ongoing.
But the attitude of many is that they don't get a platform to speak here and it's purely about Senedd matters so why should they attend? Some do. The list of those spotted this weekend includes Welsh secretary Jo Stevens, Welsh Labour's deputy leader Carolyn Harris, Llanelli MP Nia Griffith, Aberavon MP Steven Kinnock, and Caerphilly MP Wayne David but many don't attend and were vocal – at least off the record – in saying they didn't see the point in coming.
Remember – there wasn't universal agreement about devolution in the first place and since it's come into practice the discussion about how it works has continued. As the Senedd grows in strength that debate too evolves.
The 40 MPs Wales currently has looks set to be reduced in the boundary review and yet Senedd members may go up to somewhere near 100.
The recently-published intergovernmental review put into place for the first time a formal set of rules that the UK Government will follow with devolved governments. Instead of ad hoc meetings there will be formal ones with an agenda. That formal system of the different governments working together means that while Labour is in opposition in Westminster they will not be part of that – further cutting out, from their point of view at least, MPs and especially backbenchers.
Mark Drakeford has left the pandemic better-known and better-respected but part of the way he has achieved that is his narrative that Wales has done it right, Wales has done it better.
If you're a Welsh MP sat in Westminster that constant narrative of the UK Parliament having got it wrong doesn't sit easy with some of those MPs who were out on the doorsteps for the Senedd campaign backing Wales. "He isn't the universal success you may think he is," I was told.
When I asked the First Minister if he thought his continued comments against the UK institution may have affected relations with his own MPs he said it wasn't the case.
"It doesn’t impact with relations with MPs of my own party because they are the opposition to the UK Government and I think you'll find on the things that I have been critical of the UK government I am always, always echoing the critique that has been voted by the Labour party in parliament as well. So in that sense with my Labour colleagues, who I’ll be seeing plenty of, we are just different parts of a combined operation – something to expose on the one hand and holding to account on the other, the failures of a UK so badly let people in Wales down time after time.
"I work very closely with our Members of Parliament and I believe that the relationship is one in which we have a single mission, which is to create a Labour Government."
But to create that it needs to be a united team and, with mutterings in the ranks, Labour needs to keep those dissenting voices to a minimum.
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