Andy Newton is on hand with his key Welsh Grand National trends and stats ahead of the big Chepstow race on Friday 27th December.
The final Welsh Grand National runners are out, these trends can be applied to the entries to help highlight those that have fit the best profiles based on past winners. With 16 horses going to post.
For example, 86% of the last 22 winners were aged 9 or younger and 77% of the last 22 successful horses won with 11st or less.
Welsh Grand National Trends 2024: Key Stats To Find The Chepstow Winner
See below the key Welsh Grand National trends to apply this one of the main horse racing contests over the festive period.
With the Chepstow race also being shown LIVE on ITV Racing.
- 22/22 – Won between 1-5 chase races
- 22/22 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
- 22/22 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
- 20/22 – Top 4 last time out
- 19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
- 17/22 – Carried 11-0 or less
- 16/22 – Aged 8 or younger
- 15/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/22– Carried 10-8 or less in weight
- 13/22 –Won only 2 or 3 times before over fences
- 12/22 – Irish bred
- 12/22 – Won at Chepstow (fences)
- 9/22 – Won last time outg
- 8/22 – Favourites unplaced
- 8/22 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
- 7/22 – Raced in the Welsh National before
- 7/22 – French bred
- 5/22 – Favourites
- 2/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
- 2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 2/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
- Trainers Venetia Williams and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the Welsh Grand National twice each
- The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 9/1
86% Of The Last 22 Welsh Grand National Winners Were Aged 9 Or Younger
In 2022, The Two Amigos won the Welsh Grand National aged 10 and in 2015 and 2017 we had 11 and 13 year-old winners too.
However, despite this trio of double-figure aged winners, the Welsh Grand National trends tell us that 19 of the last 22 winners were aged 9 or younger.
We can also take this age stat a bit further by knowing that 16 of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or younger.
The 2024 runners aged 8 or younger are – Monbeg Genius, Galia Des Liteaux, Stuzzikini, Iron Bridge, Where It All Began, Your Own Story, Jubilee Express, Val Dancer, No Hubs No Hoobs, Atlanta Brave and Evies Vladimir.
Look For Run Within The Last Seven Weeks
Coming into the Welsh Grand National fit from a run within the last seven weeks is another trend to look for.
Yes, a lot of the Chepstow runners will fit the bill here, but entries like 2021 winner Iwilldoit fall down here – having last run 314 days ago.
Horses Carrying 11st Or Less Tick The Welsh Grand National Trends
Next up for the Welsh Grand National trends is the weight as this race is a handicap.
12 months ago, in 2023, Nassalam won the race carrying 11st 3lbs, but since 2011 (13 runnings) 10 winners had just 10st 10lbs or less on their backs.
If you want to whittle down the runners here a bit more, then 15 of the last 22 winners also carried 10st 8lbs or less in weight.
Those with 10st 10lbs ore less are – Your Own Story, The Newest One, Val Dancer, Jubilee Express, Amateur, No Hubs No Hoobs, Evies Vladimir and Atlanta Brave.
Look For A Top Four Finish Last Time Out
Heading to Chepstow off the back of a top four run has also been a good way of finding the Welsh Grand National winner in recent times.
This is backed up with 20 of the last 22 winners (91%) recording a ‘top four’ run in their most recent outing.
These had a top 4 finish last time – Fontaine Collonges, Monbeg Genius, Stuzzikini, Iron Bridge, Your Own Story, Val Dancer, No Hubs No Hoobs and Atlanta Brave.
Chepstow Course Winning Form Worth Noting
The Welsh track of Chepstow is not an overly complicated one, but the stats also tell us that 8 of the last 22 winners ran at the course last time out.
Plus 12 of the last 22 winners had won before at Chepstow – so course form is certainly worth looking back for.
How Have The Welsh Grand National Favourites Fared?
The Welsh Grand National favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK don’t have a bad record in the race – considering it’s a very competitive contest.
Over the last 22 runnings, there have been five winning market leaders, which equates to a 23% return.
Last year, Nassalam was sent off as the 9-2 joint-favourite.
This year’s favourite is set to be Monbeg Genius, who is 3-3 at Chepstow.
Who Are The Best Welsh Grand National Trainers To Look For?
There hasn’t really been one standout trainer in the Welsh Grand National in recent times.
Gary Moore took the race in 2023 with Nassalam – which was his first success – while Welsh-based handlers Christian Williams and Evan Williams were on the roll of honour in 2019 and 2020.
The only multiple winners since 1997 have been Nigel Twiston-Davies, Jonjo O’Neill, Venetia Williams and Paul Nicholls – who all have two wins each to their names.
Venetia runs Fontaine Collonges, Jonjo has Monbeg Genius and Iron Bridge, while Nigel Twiston-Davies has The Newest One.
The Last Welsh Grand National Repeat Winner Was Bonanza Boy
If you were thinking of backing last year’s winner Nassalam, then you’ll also have a big Welsh Grand National trend for the horse to overcome.
This is because the last horse to win back-to-back races was Bonanza Boy in 1988 and 1989. However, the 2023 hero DOESN’T run in the race in 2024 anyway.
Yes, since then, we’ve had Mountainous win in 2013 and 2015 – but not consecutive seasons.
The 2021 winner Iwilldoit, who was also third in 2023, will be looking to be the first horse to regain his crown.
Welsh Grand National 2024 Details
📅Date: Friday 27th December 2024
⌚Time: 2:50pm
🏇Racecourse: Chepstow
🔄Trip: 3m 6 1/2f
💷Winning Purse: £85,425
📺 TV: ITV / Sky Sports Racing
See the full Welsh Grand National race details here, with the Chepstow race live on ITV Racing.
Welsh Grand National Winners – Last 10 Years
- 2023 – NASSALAM (9/2 jfav)
- 2022 – THE TWO AMIGOS (16/1)
- 2021 – IWILLDOIT (13/2)
- 2020 – SECRET REPRIEVE (5/2 fav)
- 2019 – POTTERS CORNER (8/1)
- 2018 – ELEGANT ESCAPE (3/1 fav)
- 2017 – RAZ DE MAREE (16/1)
- 2016 – NATIVE RIVER (11/4 fav)
- 2015 – MOUNTAINOUS (9/1)
- 2014 – EMPEROR’S CHOICE (9/1)
