A Greens’ upset in Wellington Central looks possible, with a Labour hold more probable in Rongotai and Ohariu remains a toss-up
Opinion: The three Wellington electorates – Wellington Central, Rongotai and Ohariu – rarely excite much interest at election time. Sitting members are usually long-serving. The last MP to lose a Wellington seat was ACT’s Richard Prebble in Wellington Central in 1999. But that stability could change this year with the sitting members for Wellington Central and Rongotai standing aside, and a tight contest looming in Ohariu.
To make things even more interesting, after Chlöe Swarbrick’s success in Auckland Central at the last election, the Greens have dropped their previous approach of seeking the list vote only and are now going all out to win Wellington Central and Rongotai. This could have implications for government formation if the election result overall is close and one or other of these seats fall to the Greens, or, far less likely, to National.
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Of the three electorates, Wellington Central is the most fascinating. Finance Minister Grant Robertson is following the precedent set by his two immediate predecessors, Sir Michael Cullen and Sir Bill English, in becoming a list-only candidate, so that he can concentrate more fully on the finance portfolio. It also means he can leave Parliament quickly after the election if Labour loses, without causing a by-election, again following the precedent set by Cullen and English.
National’s Nicola Willis has also vacated Wellington Central, where she stood at the previous two elections, for next-door Ohariu, which she considers offers better prospects. Last week, the Greens’ James Shaw announced that, after three elections in Wellington Central, he too was moving on – to the party list – saying ambiguously it was time for “new blood”. Given Shaw’s leadership difficulties last year, he could well be referring as much to his time co-leading the Greens as to his nominated successor in Wellington Central, city councillor Tamatha Paul.
The absence of Robertson, Shaw and Willis leaves the race for the safe Labour seat wide open. But at this stage it looks likely to be between Labour and the Greens. Health Minister Ayesha Verrall or list MP Ibrahim Omer have been suggested as possible Labour nominees, but other high-profile names, including other sitting list MPs, could yet emerge.
There is no clear frontrunner to be National’s candidate, but a strong choice is likely, and in Rongotai also, given the longshot possibility that a split vote between Labour and the Greens might let National through the middle in both seats. In that event, and assuming Willis wins Ohariu, Wellington’s transition from the current sea of red to a sea of blue would be complete, and a change of government probably assured.
National will be going all-out to win Ohariu, probably at the expense of Wellington Central and Rongotai. But Labour will not be able to divert resources to Ohariu without compromising its efforts in Wellington Central and Rongotai
Far more likely, though, is a close contest between Labour and the Greens. Following the Greens’ Tory Whanau mobilising a strong coalition of progressive, inner-city voters to achieve a stunning come-from-nowhere win in the Wellington mayoralty last year, the Greens will be looking to follow the same campaign strategy in Wellington Central.
If Tamatha Paul can match Whanau’s groundswell, there is every chance she could be the next MP for Wellington Central. It will still be an uphill battle though, as Wellington Central is also the home of many of Labour’s strongest activists and staunchest supporters, who will be determined not to concede anything to the Greens.
It is a similar situation in Rongotai where pedestrian local Labour MP and failed mayoral candidate Paul Eagle is standing down. Former city councillor Fleur Fitzsimons has long been identified as his heir apparent, although Ayesha Verrall is also a possibility, especially if she does not stand in Wellington Central. Whomever Labour selects will be up against high-profile former Greens’ Minister Julie Anne Genter.
Another close contest looms, although a Greens win here looks less possible. Genter is assured of a high place on the Greens’ list so will make it back to Parliament anyway. Also, the Greens’ activist base may be stretched to work effectively over two contiguous electorates. Their efforts are far more likely to concentrate on Wellington Central, especially as Paul has said she is solely focused on winning the seat and will not be seeking a place on the party list. However, if the Greens’ tide starts to roll strongly in Wellington Central, it could well spill over into Rongotai and propel Genter to victory, although it would need to be of tsunami scale to do so.
Either way, Labour will be forced to devote far more attention and resources to retaining these previously safe seats, at the expense of holding seats it won unexpectedly elsewhere in 2020.
And then there is Ohariu, last held by National nearly 40 years ago, where deputy leader Nicola Willis fancies her chances. Labour has a large majority there, mainly because of the weakness of the previous National candidate and the large nationwide swing to Labour at the last election. Ohariu is among the country's wealthiest and most-mortgaged electorates, with 30- to 49-year-old householders the largest population group. Ohariu matches Willis’ profile far more closely than the incumbent, the oldest MP for the area since Harry Combs 70 years ago.
National will be going all-out to win Ohariu, probably at the expense of Wellington Central and Rongotai. But Labour will not be able to divert resources to Ohariu without compromising its efforts in Wellington Central and Rongotai. It may need to persuade the Greens to stand aside in Ohariu if it is to win there again.
Overall, at this stage, a Greens’ upset in Wellington Central looks possible, with a Labour hold more probable in Rongotai. Ohariu remains a toss-up, although if there is a clear mood for a change of government it will most likely fall to National.
And that would end the sea of red, leaving a three-way split in the Wellington electorates for the first time in nearly 25 years.
