As these things usually are, it will be decided with hindsight. If the Australian men’s team does any less than reach the 50-over World Cup final this November, the players will be described as the old stagers who hung on for one tournament too many. If they challenge for the trophy, it will be described as the value of experience and big-match temperament. Nobody who writes these things will be concerned about how close they were to writing the other. Neat stories are the easiest to tell.
However it goes, Australia’s selectors have chosen consistency and stability as their guiding principles. Seven of the likely best XI at this year’s tournament were in the 2015 World Cup squad: David Warner, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood played in the winning final while Mitchell Marsh and Pat Cummins got medals from the bench. Throw in Marnus Labuschagne, Cameron Green and Alex Carey after Travis Head returns from injury and you could have a team with 10 Test players from this year’s Ashes. England, by contrast, have a maximum of six.
Of the rest, Marcus Stoinis and Adam Zampa started their own international careers within a year of that 2015 World Cup and have been fixtures since. The only players who are anywhere close to new, Sean Abbott and Josh Inglis, are 31 and 28 years old respectively and have played mountains of domestic cricket. It is a squad well seasoned to the point of becoming jerky.
But a one-day World Cup is a long voyage, eight weeks end to end once you throw in the warm-ups, and toughness might well be what survives. Right now, though, what has surprised is just how fresh Warner and Smith in particular look after what has been a gruelling year. Both have laid into bowlers in the last fortnight with clarity and aggression, Warner passing 50 five times out of seven ODIs but more strikingly doing so with his full range of shots rather than his cagey strike rotation of recent years.
Not every match will offer friendly pitches and small boundaries, as conditions change from venue to venue through the tournament. Australia’s early matches in Chennai and Lucknow especially are likely to be on pitches more conducive to turn, where accumulation is more the approach. But no visiting player has more IPL runs than Warner, and only a couple have played more matches. He knows these venues like the back of his bat.
The shortage of spin in general is a point of interest, given slow bowling’s role in all limited-overs cricket. Changing pace to force changes of approach when batters look to attack is one of the key weapons of successful sides, but Zampa will be suiting up as Australia’s lone specialist with his leg breaks. Maxwell’s off spin is much improved but will be the only clear reserve, with a bit of part-time from Labuschagne or Smith to plug the gaps until Head returns. It is a substantial gamble in a squad with three frontline quicks and four seam all-rounders.
The use of those fast bowlers will also be key. While the full Test attack of Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood did work in the T20 World Cup of 2021, a campaign this much longer needs rotation. But Starc’s ability to swing the new ball should see him start every match he can – 49 wickets in the last two one-day World Cups seal the argument. And Cummins as captain is unlikely to be rested, although less orthodox things have happened. Then there’s the option of extra batting from Abbott or Green at No8 to give the top order a buffer. It’s a tricky configuration.
At least the top order is fairly well set: Warner with Marsh to open given the latter’s clean striking of the new ball, Smith and Labuschagne as the engine room, Stoinis or Green at five with Maxwell floating depending on the stage of innings, perhaps coming in earlier if the middle overs involve a lot of spin. Once Head recovers from his broken hand, Marsh would shuffle to three and squeeze out the existing three or five, leaving Smith to continue marshalling the innings while hitters work around him.
Run-scoring in the afternoons is probably going to require a fireman’s chain: given the current heat and humidity, few players will be batting through an innings. The night will be cooler but bowlers might struggle with dew. If the latter suggests that fielding first is attractive, then all 11 of your players have to spend 50 overs in the heat before they bat. There are no easy answers for a difficult tournament. The only path is through it.
