The dogs are going down. That has been the theme for several weeks as the pickings have been slim in H-Bomb eligible games with an underdog of 6.5 points or more.
With this the final week of the regular season, Jess Root and I are in danger of finishing with a .500 record after we both were 7-3 following games in Week 10. It doesn’t take a math wizard to figure out we are both 2-5 since then.
Last week, only two of six covered: the Cardinals and Giants with the latter winning outright over the Colts. Jess lost last week on the Cowboys and my loser was the Panthers.
Consider this: After underdogs covered in 12 of the first 13 games of the season and had a record of 17-2 entering Week 6, there has been a total reversal.
The 2-4 record last week dropped the overall record to 40-33 (54.8 percent) and there have been only 23 covers in the last 54 eligible games (42.6 percent). In the last four weeks, the record is 5-13.
Here are the seven eligible games for this week with five underdogs playing with backup quarterbacks:
- Ravens -20 vs. Browns
- Falcons -8 vs. Panthers
- Buccaneers -14 vs. Saints
- Packers -10 vs. Bears
- Seahawks -6.5 at Rams
- Broncos -10.5 vs. Chiefs
- Commanders -6.5 vs. Cowboys
Making these picks difficult are the players on playoff teams sitting out.
Jess is going with the Rams despite the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo will be the quarterback and be without running back Kyren Williams, wide receiver Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with left tackle Alaric Jackson, right guard Kevin Dotson and right tackle Rob Havenstein.
I will go with the Chiefs against Denver even though Kansas City will have Carson Wentz at quarterback and probably not play tight end Travis Kelce and defensive lineman Chris Jones. While the Broncos are playing for a possible wild-card spot, it’s still difficult to envision Kansas City losing by 11 points or more.
STANDINGS AFTER 17 WEEKS
Jess 9-8 (3 direct hits)
Howard 9-8 (3 direct hits)
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