When the dust settles on the 2022 NFL season, Week 14 may be recognized as its breaking point.
This was the week where contenders operating in the mid-to-upper crust of this year’s Super Bowl contenders laid their flaws bare for the world to see. The New York Jets couldn’t recreate the magic of Week 9’s upset win over the Buffalo Bills. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dug a hole not even Tom Brady could dig them out of.
New York Giants and Tennessee Titans continued their downward spiral. The Dallas Cowboys had the least convincing win of any team in the NFL this fall.
So while the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, three teams with the shortest title odds, all won with varying degrees of comfort the teams chasing them mostly stumbled. What went wrong for the teams who had their Lombardi Trophy dreams dented in Week 14? Let’s run down the list and point out the fatal flaw that floated to the surface — or, in the case of the Seahawks, Giants and others, breached it like a hyperactive whale.
New York Giants: A fading offense and more heart than talent
Things were not pretty in northern New Jersey Sunday. The Eagles scored on eight of their first 10 drives and Philly’s win probability hit the 97 percent mark with eight minutes left in the second quarter. A 48-22 loss means a New York team that was once 7-2 is now 7-5-1 and fighting for its playoff life.
Brian Daboll’s changes were always going to have a shelf life. The Giants won games despite a talent disparity by leaning hard on the run, winning the time of possession battle and allowing opponents as few chances as possible to beat them. Daniel Jones cut his turnover rate and all was well.
That turnover luck has fallen back to earth. While it’s still not bad a sudden slump from Saquon Barkley means New York has to rely on Jones to throw this team to victory. That’s a tall task to begin with, but even more so when his top wideouts are:
- Darius Slayton
- Richie James
- Isaiah Hodgins
This has put more stress on an undermanned defense. That unit has responded by giving up 31.8 points per game on the Giants’ 0-3-1 skid.
Tennessee Titans: Pantsed by the 4-8 Jacksonville Jaguars behind self-inflicted wounds
The Jaguars hadn’t won in Nashville since 2013. They hadn’t led at any point in a road game against the Titans in more than seven years.
This the first time the Jaguars have led the Titans in Nashville since the fourth quarter of a game the Titans won 42-39 on Dec. 6, 2015. That lead lasted 1:39 and was erased by Marcus Mariota's 87-yard TD run.
— Michael DiRocco (@ESPNdirocco) December 11, 2022
The Titans didn’t just lose Sunday. They were thoroughly demoralized by the little brother they’d picked on for years. The defense that was supposed to be the salve to heal the wounds of a low octane offense was carved up not by Travis Etienne or Christian Kirk but by, of all people, Evan Engram. The former first round pick, arguably the worst non-quarterback Pro Bowl selection of the last decade, had 11 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns as Trevor Lawrence threw for 368 yards, three scores and took zero sacks.
This could have been survivable, especially on a day where Derrick Henry ran for 100-plus yards on more than seven yards per carry. But Henry fumbled twice and Ryan Tannehill turned it over two more times (one fumble, one interception). The Jaguars turned that into 20 points in a game Tennessee lost by 14.
Forcing the Titans off script puts the onus on Tannehill’s shoulders. While he’s done a nice job elevating young guys like Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo this season, there’s no reliable presence in his passing game to lift him when the momentum surges against Mike Vrabel’s team — you know, a guy like AJ Brown. Tennessee couldn’t fight the tide Sunday and rode to a third-straight loss as a result.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott's powders and Mike McCarthy's play calls
The Cowboys beat the Houston Texans. They are 10-3 and tied for the second-best record in the NFC. They have better than 99 percent odds to be in the 2022 NFL Playoffs.
But, hoooo buddy, this was not the performance of a playoff team. Mike McCarthy and Lovie Smith’s coaching efforts combined to turn this game into a blindfolded fencing match. McCarthy’s red zone play calling was predictable and stifled by the league’s 28th-ranked run defense. Dak Prescott found himself out-dueled by the XFL-adjacent combination of Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel.
The Cowboys were eventually bailed out by Smith’s decision to give Rex Burkhead goal line carries in the year 2022 and Ezekiel Elliott’s ability to grind out the tough yards McCarthy so desperately needs him to do. But so much of the playmaking Dallas relies on suddenly disappeared against the league’s worst team. To wit:
Cowboys defense sacks per game before Sunday: four (tops in the NFL)
- vs. Houston: 0
Cowboys defense third down conversions allowed rate before Sunday: 33.8 percent (fifth in NFL)
- vs. Houston: 47.6 percent
CeeDee Lamb: receiving yards per game before Sunday: 77.3
- vs. Houston: 33
The Cowboys was sloppy, inconsistent and needed a furious rally to beat a team who was a 17-point underdog at kickoff. Were these lapses the result of overlooking an inferior opponent? Or were they a preview of the disappointment yet to come in the postseason?
Minnesota Vikings: Like an O-Town concert, too reliant on All-or-Nothing (and the defense stinks)
The Vikings came into Week 14 stricken by injuries and had to play without key members of their offensive line or star safety Harrison Smith. That could be an excuse why this team gave up 454 yards to the Detroit Lions and gained only 22 rushing yards. But ultimately those things could have happened even with a totally healthy lineup, because that’s who this year’s Vikings team is.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 24th in passing DVOA, so it wasn’t surprising to see Jared Goff continue his comeback story by throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns. Goff attempted eight passes that traveled at least 14 yards downfield and completed seven of them. Many of these were great throws to good receivers, but they were made undoubtedly easier by the fact the Vikings’ coverage is a mostly theoretical exercise.
FIRST NFL CATCH IS A TOUCHDOWN FOR @bigsgjamo!#MINvsDET | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/2vd9oiRmYe
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 11, 2022
The other issue is that an offense full of stars has fallen into a Wily Mo Pena trap of either striking out or mashing dingers. Dalvin Cook got stuck in the mud against the league’s 25th-ranked rushing defense to the tune of 23 yards on 15 carries. And that’s not especially surprising!
There are a lot of jarring Vikings stats after this one. But here's one that really caught my eye. In the last five weeks, 33.9% of the Vikings' runs have gone for zero yards or negative yards. Most in NFL by a gigantic margin.
— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) December 12, 2022
This doesn’t matter when you’ve got Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to bail you out with big plays or a runner like Cook who can get hit behind the line of scrimmage and still create magic. That’s not a sustainable practice, however. Minnesota beat the Bills because of some borderline witchcraft from its stars. It couldn’t pull that off in Week 14 because those guys are mortal — even with Jefferson racking up more than 200 receiving yards. That led to a loss and a little more room to doubt a Kirk Cousins team come playoff time.
New York Jets: Still a quarterback (and some blocking) away from being taken seriously
Mike White is the best quarterback on the Jets’ roster. Mike White is tougher thank Bazooka Joe gum.
But Mike White is, fundamentally, Mike White. He’s a passable backup quarterback willing to take risks downfield but ultimately one with a low ceiling. He was batted and bruised by a Bills pass rush that sacked or hit him 11 times Sunday, including one of the most brutal tackles of the 2022 season to date:
prayers up for Mike White's ribcage, or whatever remains of it pic.twitter.com/TgWYAwkKeB
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 11, 2022
While the New York defense was able to keep this close, White and a depleted offense lacked the firepower to close the gap and rally for a comeback win. His 2.7 seconds from snap to throw was the fifth-lowest number in Week 14, allowing little time for his wideouts’ routes to develop downfield. He managed to more or less keep pace with Josh Allen’s passing, but that’s not saying much on a wintery day where no one was particularly good.
That’s going to define New York’s limitations in 2022. Its defense can create room to compete for 60 full minutes. Its young playmakers can turn small creases into big gains. But none of that matters if the guy in the middle of it all can’t provide the foundation they build from.
White is a great story. but he hasn’t shown he’s capable of sustaining championship NFL football. Even in his better-than-expected 2022 he’s still putting up fairly modest efficiency numbers.
Because the Jets are a Robert Saleh production, they’re built to win around a shaky quarterback — it’s a trick he picked up in San Francisco. New York has the chops to be a playoff team. It could even win a couple games there. But getting any farther is going to mean getting massive improvements from Mike White.
Seattle Seahawks: Can't stop the run
The Panthers ran the ball 46 times for 223 yards Sunday afternoon. This allowed them to take the ball out of Sam Darnold’s hands and effectively batter the Seahawks’ glaring weakness with shovels.
This is not a strategy endemic to Carolina. Anyone can do it.
Each of the following players has recorded his season-high in rushing yards against the Seahawks:
Cordarrelle Patterson 141
Jamaal Williams 108
Taysom Hill 112
Alvin Kamara 103
Kyler Murray 100
Rachaad White 105
Josh Jacobs 229
Chuba Hubbard 74— Stacy Jo Rost (@StacyRost) December 12, 2022
While the importance of the run game has waned in recent years, it’s still a massive part of a team’s playoff push. Green Bay’s inability to control opponents on the ground led to a decade of frustration for Aaron Rodgers in the postseason. Seattle’s similar flaw could mean missing the playoffs and fading down the stretch in what had been an optimistically surprising year.
Miami Dolphins: Inefficient passing defense, Tua Tagovailoa's regression and over-reliance on Tyreek Hill
Tua Tagovailoa’s breakthrough has given Miami a dynamic, occasionally unstoppable passing offense. Much of that is thanks to Tyreek Hill and, yes, cracks are beginning to show as that reliance convinces Tagovailoa to do things like throw into quadruple coverage in his own territory.
This broke down when Hill was hobbled in the second half. The All-Pro receiver struggled to get open, the Chargers’ generally milquetoast secondary bottled up Jaylen Waddle and Tagovailoa had his least accurate game of 2022 and completed only 10 of 28 passes. Literally every throw to his left was a failure.
Tua Tagovailoa Derek Zoolander
🤝
not going left pic.twitter.com/26SPTjC1Hl— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 12, 2022
The bloom is beginning to come off Tagovailoa’s rose. His MVP campaign is fading and now after an 8-0 record in games he started and finished he’s lost two straight.
This is an issue, but so is the pass defense that gave up 300-plus yards for the fifth time this season in Week 14. These are the quarterbacks who have crossed that threshold in 2022:
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
- Jared Goff
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
Four of the five are guys Miami is likely to see on the AFC side of the bracket (I am not ruling out a Dolphins-Lions Super Bowl. In fact, this would make me giddy. It’s just unlikely). They only lost two of those games, but two of those three wins required a metric ton of offense (i.e. at least 476 total yards) to pull out a close victory. That’s a lot tougher to pull off when your quarterback is only completing 35 percent of his passes.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The world is burning around Tom Brady
Brady has been sacked on a league-low 3.3 percent of his dropbacks. This seems impressive until you watch a game and see just how reticent the 45-year-old is to getting hit. His average target distance is down to 6.7 yards — his lowest mark since SIS began tracking that stat eight years ago. This has nothing to do with arm strength (OK, maybe a little) and everything to do with getting the ball the hell away from him when his line disintegrates. His 2.47 seconds between snap and throw is the lowest among qualified starters by a decent margin.
Brady doesn’t have time to throw deep. His run game is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and ranks 32nd in a 32-team league. That’s out too. His defense gave up touchdowns to Brock Purdy, the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, on four of its first six drives. These weren’t laser beams slid into tight windows; they were lobs to open wideouts thriving against lapsed coverage.
Aiyuk kidding me?! 🤯#ProBowlVote @THE2ERA
📺 #TBvsSF on FOX
📱 NFL+ // https://t.co/d2FDeaE8pp pic.twitter.com/QNPqo4spjm— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 11, 2022
There’s nothing to like about the Buccaneers except the veteran quarterback still capable of conjuring epic rallies from the ether. Tampa Bay will probably still make it to the postseason because the NFC South is a wreck. It will probably be competitive in a Wild Card game at home because Brady rises to the occasion and the home fans will be losing their minds for him. But asking him to push this team to something more than that is a big ask, even for the winningest player in league history.
The Buccaneers are broken. But they’ve still got Tom Brady, so it’s a fun kind of broken.
