In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.
Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.
Week 10 Summary
NFL Week 10 Air Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) November 16, 2023
👑 Mike Evans
🎯 Noah Brown
🔥 CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks pic.twitter.com/5Zc6hwJjsY
Brandin Cooks Feasts in Cowboys Blowout
Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports
Heading into Week 10, the Cowboys offense was still searching for a standout secondary receiving option behind CeeDee Lamb. Enter Brandin Cooks. The 10th-year veteran set season highs with nine catches, 173 receiving yards and 133 air yards—and those 173 receiving yards were Cooks’s most in any game since 2016. He saw at least 10 air yards on seven of his 10 targets, and he eviscerated the Giants coverage unit as a speedy weapon out of the slot. His route chart tells the same story in fewer words:
The Dallas Cowboys remembered who Brandin Cooks was on Sunday.
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) November 13, 2023
(via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/g3vyeWVgpg
On that slot role: Cooks lined up in the slot 62.5% of the time, a season high, and out wide 32.5% of the time, a season low, and the Cowboys finally took advantage of his speed on free releases. A Sunday matchup against the Panthers and a Thanksgiving game against the Commanders should provide Cooks with opportunities to carry his performance forward.
The Sun God Extends His Hot Streak
Since Week 6, Detroit wideout Amon-ra St. Brown has more receptions and receiving yards than anyone other than Lamb. St. Brown’s latest performance included a season-high 30.5 PPR on eight catches, 156 receiving yards, one touchdown and a 12.7-yard average depth of target—his highest this season. He will be treated to the second-easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way.
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Mike Evans Is Humming Along Toward 10th Straight 1,000-Yard Season
Evans dominated the Titans secondary, literally. At one point, he dragged Tennessee corner Kristian Fulton five yards and powered his way into the end zone. Evans’s day could have been even better if he wasn’t underthrown on a 43-yard deep completion that could’ve been a 49-yard touchdown. Baker Mayfield hasn’t been perfect—the Bucs have only reached the red zone on a below-average 24.5% of their drives—but it hasn’t mattered too much for Evans. He’s only 263 yards away from his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard season and is the bonafide top wideout in Tampa with a massive 39.5% air yards share.
Week 11 Lookahead
Joshua Dobbs Can Take T.J. Hockenson Higher
No Kirk Cousins? No problem. Hockenson had his most receiving yards (134) in a game since Week 4 of the 2022 season and his most targets (15) and air yards (134) in a game since Week 16 last year. Dobbs has stepped in and served Hockenson back-to-back 12-plus target weeks, continuing to pepper his primary tight end as he did in Arizona.
Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports
Justin Jefferson’s eventual return will peel away some opportunity from Hockenson, but the fifth-year tight end looks as right as rain with Dobbs at the helm. Up next: Hockenson faces the Broncos, who have given up the second-most points per game to tight ends, and the Bears, who have given up the fifth-most points per game to tight ends.
Adam Thielen Cools Off Amid Panthers Train Wreck
Thielen raced out and became the overall PPR WR3 through the season’s first six weeks, but the veteran has fizzled since the bye week. His average depth of target has been sliced from 7.68 yards to 4.33 yards. Combine that with a lack of juice—Thielen ranks 81st out of 85 wide receivers in Next Gen Stats's yards after catch above expectation metric—and Thielen becomes nothing more than a target sponge with a limited ceiling. He has still been usable as the WR36 in PPR points per game over the last three weeks, but his days as weekly WR1 are probably behind him.
How Long Will Christian Watson’s Sophomore Slump Continue?
For the third straight week, Watson had more than 70 air yards and less than seven total fantasy points. He has struggled in contested catch situations, going 2-of-11 in those opportunities as charted by FTN Data, which exposes a flaw in his game: Watson thrives when he can wield his game-breaking speed to take the top off the defense, but he’s not a true go-up-and-get-it primary receiving option.
Opposing teams have also put the top back on their defenses. Watson has only faced Cover 1 on 13.7% of his routes, down from 22.3% last year. He has also only faced man coverage on 17.6% of his routes, down from 28.7% last season. In other words, Watson is receiving fewer opportunities where he can unleash his speed and not have to worry about a safety helping over the top.
Watson can begin to get out of his slump if contested catches start breaking his way. Beyond that, the Packers have one of the easiest remaining schedules and there is at least a chance Watson morphs into a high-end WR3 by season’s end.
Quick Prayer Yards Notes
NFL Week 10 Prayer Yards Leaderboard pic.twitter.com/i4AgPj2TTm
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) November 16, 2023
- Justin Fields’s return should help DJ Moore hop back into the WR2 tier.
- Davante Adams’s fantasy points per target is 1.14 PPR points with Aidan O’Connell, compared to 1.44 without him. The Raiders should find themselves in more negative game scripts with matchups against the Dolphins, Chiefs (twice), Vikings and Chargers in their next five games.
- Rondale Moore saw two targets of 23 and 37 air yards. None of his other six targets went for more than five air yards. He’s still being used close to the line of scrimmage and is the third receiving option behind Marquise Brown and Trey McBride.
Data Sources
- Yards, receptions, touchdowns, air yards and EPA pulled via nflverse
- Catchable air yards, prayer yards and play action data from FTN Data via nflverse
- Personnel data pulled from Joseph Hefner’s formations app
- Route participation pulled via Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report
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