Good morning. A few months ago, it seemed as though there were no clear viable alternatives to Boris Johnson – but following his dramatic resignation last week, there are now eight candidates left vying to be the next prime minister.
In a move to cut the fat and speed up the process, the 1922 Committee announced earlier this week the candidates would need at least 20 MP nominations to get through to the second round. Only three of the potential candidates were eliminated in the end. To wrap my head around all of this, I spoke to Aubrey Allegretti, a political correspondent at the Guardian. First though, the headlines:
Five big stories
Uber files | Emmanuel Macron has said he is “proud” to have helped the US cab-hailing company break in to the French closed-shop taxi market, and that he would “do it again tomorrow and the day after tomorrow”.
Weather | The Met Office has issued an amber heat warning, as they predict that temperatures will continue to soar into the mid 30s until Monday. The heatwave threatens to disrupt public transport and schools and may even cause fires and deaths.
BBC | The Ministry of Defence has said that the BBC has engaged in “irresponsible, incorrect” journalism, in response to a Panorama documentary that will accuse SAS soldiers of killing Afghan civilians in cold blood.
Crime | An inquiry has found that more than 1,000 children were sexually exploited in Telford over decades. The three-year-long inquiry also found that authorities failed to properly investigate the crimes, which “emboldened offenders”.
Economy | The average British household is £8,800 a year worse off than those in France or Germany, according to a report by the Resolution Foundation. It also found that Britain’s income inequality is higher than all other large European countries.
In depth: Who’s in the running – and who might win
With Britain set to have a new prime minister in less than two months, the Tory hopefuls who will be competing to reach the final two, and then for the votes of their 200,000 membership, are trying desperately to differentiate themselves from each other and the outgoing prime minister. Listed below are their promises, their track records and how likely they are to actually win – along with their number of public supporters among MPs so far (which is in some cases fewer than the 20 nominations they received yesterday to stay in the race).
***
Rishi Sunak 45 public supporters
Former chancellor (and 222nd richest person in the UK), Rishi Sunak is the bookies’ favourite in the leadership race. Sunak has been billed as the grown-up candidate, Aubrey Allegretti tells me. “He’s trying to present himself as the adult in the room, both on standards and integrity,” says Aubrey, an attempt to cast himself as a significant symbolic departure from the Johnson era despite having been chancellor. The slickness of Sunak’s campaign – from his speeches to his videos – show a candidate who is “trying to extol a kind of professionalism by looking a bit like a bank manager or a CEO”. In some ways it’s working: he’s had the most support from backbench MPs and has been endorsed by some of the most senior Tory MPs, including deputy prime minister Dominic Raab.
Like any good professional, Sunak is armed with a stellar CV: he rose rapidly through the ministerial ranks before becoming chancellor. He will be less enthusiastic about mentions of his wife’s previous “non-dom” status and the US green card he hung on to even in his time as chancellor.
“His main policy platform is being the sole voice that is resisting the siren calls for tax cuts,” Aubrey says. By sticking to the plan that he had implemented as chancellor, Sunak runs the risk of exposing himself to the very criticisms that led to a rapid decline in popularity a few months ago.
***
Penny Mordaunt 27 public supporters
The international trade minister has been an MP since 2010 and is presenting herself as the unity candidate. After an awkward launch that started with a video that has since been edited after multiple complaints from people who were featured in it, Mordaunt seems to have found her footing as a serious rival to Sunak. And one survey found that she was the new favourite to become Conservative leader among grassroots party members.
“She’s very, very, very close to the grassroots parts of the party,” Aubrey says, “She’s very good with the members and that’s why she’s done so well with them.” While Mordaunt is not the most high-profile MP in Westminster, to the members, Aubrey says, “she is very impressive, very visible and they really like what she stands for.”
To her supporters, she represents the best of both worlds: an ardent Brexiteer, who’s younger and therefore seems fresher. “Her softer conservative approach on social issues, paired with the classical rightwing approach to economics is why she’s proving to be a really interesting character,” Aubrey says.
***
Tom Tugendhat 21 public supporters
With his military background and praise for Queen and country, Tom Tugendhat represents a recognisable, traditional, one-nation Conservatism. His unwavering criticisms of Boris Johnson, and the fact that he has never served in his cabinet, also offers him a safe distance from the current administration. And this Johnson fatigue could work in his favour: a few weeks ago at a conference for the Northern Research Group (NRG) pressure group of MPs in Doncaster, Tugendhat stood in for Boris Johnson after he pulled out. “I can’t tell you the fury from the NRG MPs when Johnson wasn’t there,” Aubrey says, “and how pleased they were that Tugendhat was, because they felt that he was so understanding of their concerns and was ready to listen to their policy ideas.” But he has a mountain to climb to reach the final two.
***
Liz Truss 21 public supporters
Hawkish foreign secretary Liz Truss is representing the right of the party, and with backing from Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries, she has become the continuity candidate for the Johnson administration. Unfortunately for her, this is no guarantee of success; 54% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 wanted Boris Johnson to resign last week. “It feels as if people are crying out for a relatively drastic change,” says Aubrey, “but Truss only seems to offer incremental change rather than wholesale ones at a higher level.”
Truss hasn’t set herself apart from other candidates, either. She is primarily pledging to implement tax cuts, which would include reversing Sunak’s national insurance increase, if she became prime minister. Nonetheless, if the most avidly Brexit-supporting MPs on the right of the party coalesce around her candidacy, she will believe she is in with a good chance.
***
Kemi Badenoch 19 public supporters
Former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch is relatively new to parliament, having become an MP in 2017. Badenoch has not let this curb her ambitions, however, and has earned the backing of Michael Gove and has significant support from the membership. Badenoch sees the problem with her party as more fundamental, Aubrey explains. (“What she really wants is to take the country apart and put it back together,” he says).
She is firmly on the right of the party both culturally and economically, arguing for much smaller government, lower taxes and an intensification of the so-called “war on woke”. But while other candidates are focusing on tax cuts, Badenoch sees the answer to Britain’s problems in a “fundamental shift in the culture and behaviour of the workforce across the state”, Aubrey says. “She talks about economic realignment in a way that I don’t think a lot of the other candidates are.”
***
Jeremy Hunt 14 public supporters
Former health secretary Jeremy Hunt ran in the last leadership election and lost, but he’s giving it another go. Hunt centred taxes in his pitch to be prime minister, pledging to immediately cut the 19p rate to 15p in an autumn budget. He has also said that he is the “only major candidate” who did not serve in Johnson’s cabinet, clearly signalling that a Hunt administration would look radically different to the government we’ve had for the last three years. However, his chances aren’t looking great. “The simple answer is that he’s fighting to remain relevant,” Aubrey says – and people aren’t very interested in a repeat of the same battles that happened in 2019.
***
Nadhim Zahawi 14 public supporters
Former vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi has been a very busy man. Between batting off numerous allegations about his taxes, being appointed chancellor of the exchequer, and then announcing a bid to be leader of his party, you’d be forgiven for wondering when he ever sleeps.
For his campaign, Zahawi has offered some ideas to generate revenue without upping taxes, but not many. Controversially, he has pledged to cut 20% of jobs from every government department. Zahawi’s claim is simple: by chopping jobs and spending in Whitehall, he will have what he calls the “headroom” to cut taxes and bring down inflation. Zahawi is a well-known government figure, who can boast about the success of the vaccine rollout to shore support, but his decision to take the position of chancellor and then 48 hours later demand Boris Johnson resign has hurt his reputation, Aubrey says: “there are a lot of people who have raised with me that he has major credibility issues.” Zahawi’s leadership bid now carries the stink of opportunism – and that could cost him.
***
Suella Braverman 12 public supporters
Attorney General Suella Braverman has managed to shore up enough votes to solidify her candidacy. A controversial figure, Braverman is firmly on the right of the field. Aubrey explains that while playing for the hardest Brexit position in the party might get her some support, “it probably won’t get her terribly far into the race because she is pushing so far down in a particular direction rather than seeking to be a unifying figure.”
While Braverman has outlined some economic policies, such as cutting government department budgets and implementing long-term public service reforms (what these reforms will actually look like is, as of yet, unclear), she is also more than happy to play into “culture wars” topics. She also lambasted “welfare dependency”, claiming that there is “still a stubborn tail of the population that refuses to enter into economic activity”. In the current economic climate however it’s unclear who these comments are supposed to appeal to. “I don’t think during a cost of living crisis this is a viewpoint that many would share. In fact, many in the party would probably say it’s bad optics,” says Aubrey.
What else we’ve been reading
Unless you’ve been living in the Upside Down, you’re probably aware that Kate Bush’s Running Up That Hill has been given a chart-topping boost thanks to the Netflix series Stranger Things. Eamonn Forde’s smart piece considers the power of a good TV – or even TikTok – sync deal. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
As the second heatwave of the year starts to sweep the country, many are wondering what to wear to work that is appropriate but won’t cause heatstroke. Fleur Britten goes through the dos and dont’s of appropriate heatwave office wear. Nimo
From Kendrick Lamar to Johnny Marr, big names are releasing double albums. New York magazine’s Vulture (£) digs into the trend for BOGOF records. Hannah
In this incisive piece, Helena Horton worries that important commitments to net zero are getting pushed to the wayside among Tory MPs who are in the race to become the next prime minister. Nimo
Andy Beckett writes that the Tory leadership candidates are “swapping one set of illusions for another” – not grappling with the legacy of the Johnson era, but reverting to their Thatcherite “comfort zone”. Archie
Sport
Cricket | England were thrashed by India in their first one-day international, being bowled out for 110 after Jasprit Bumrah took 6-19. India reached their target without losing a wicket.
Cycling | Senior officials from the Tour de France organisation were seen dragging climate‑change protesters into a ditch during the 10th stage of the race. The protesters sat on the course and set off red flares around 36km from the finish.
Football | Germany beat Spain 2-0 with goals from Klara Buhl and Alexandra Popp to go top of their Euro 2022 group.
The front pages
“Leadership battle leaves eight Tory rivals scrapping for votes” – the lead story on the Guardian front page today, which also carries an image from the James Webb telescope. The Times has a version of that picture while its splash is “Sunak and Truss lead race”. The Telegraph has “I will run the economy like Thatcher if I win, says Sunak” while the Express says “Boris loyalists backing Truss to ‘stop Rishi’”. Similar angle in the Financial Times: “Eight make Tory ballot as allies of Johnson step up ‘stop Rishi’ push”. The i reports “Eight Tories in today’s vote to become PM, as Sunak leads”. “Rishi blasted on ‘socialist’ taxes” says the Daily Mail, headlining a front-page writeoff of an attack piece inside by Jacob Rees-Mogg. “Britain on red alert” – the heatwave is the Metro’s top story. The Mirror reports on “Our recycling … dumped abroad” and its front page displays a smouldering tip in Turkey.
Today in Focus
The Uber files: the drivers (part 3)
Uber launched itself into cities across the world, selling a dream in which drivers could earn more than elsewhere – and customers could pay much less. But it wasn’t a model that was built to last, as one London driver, Abdurzak Hadi, tells us
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Pictured above: Albert Jonas and John Xiniwe of the African Choir, photographed in 1891.
Getty Images, which has one of the largest photo collections in the world, is launching the Black History & Culture Collection . The initiative will provide free access to 30,000 historical and cultural images of the Black diaspora in the US and UK over the last two centuries. The project began after the murder of George Floyd and was curated with various academics, organisations and educational institutions. “This project is really important because it’s about access and education and empowerment,” says Kwame Asiedu, the collection’s project manager. “For so long, those three words – regardless of whether it’s an image collection – have been missing from a lot of black communities around the world.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
