Good morning. If your response to news that a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol could be on the verge of being struck is a sudden urge to take a long-term lease on a flotation tank, fair enough. It’s perfectly reasonable to want to tune this all out until something is signed and delivered, and grapple with what exactly it means then.
Unfortunately, there are quite good reasons to get your head round it now. Already, battle lines are being drawn over the significance of such a deal, with three obvious camps: Brexit is progressing; Brexit is a mess; Brexit is being betrayed. (Boris Johnson, inevitably, is looming in the background.) The contours of that phoney war are likely to have significant consequences for the final outcome, for the UK and EU alike – and especially for the residents of Northern Ireland.
Today’s newsletter takes you through it – as well as guiding you through a major new disinformation investigation that went live this morning. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Disinfo black ops | In a new investigation just published on the Guardian, a hacking and disinformation team which claims to have manipulated more than 30 elections around the world has been exposed. Scroll down for a quick guide on everything you need to read to understand the story.
Police | Two police officers are set to face gross misconduct hearings over the handling of indecent exposure allegations against Wayne Couzens, who on Monday pleaded guilty to three different criminal charges of indecent exposure, which all happened before he murdered Sarah Everard.
UK politics | Labour has been taken out of special measures by the equalities watchdog, 18 months after the Equality and Human Rights Commission found the party had acted unlawfully in its treatment of Jewish members under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
India | BBC offices in Delhi and Mumbai have been raided over two days by officials from the country’s income tax department, weeks after the release of a documentary that was critical of prime minister Narendra Modi. The offices have been sealed and documents and phones of several journalists were seized by the authorities.
UK news | Cheshire constabulary, the police force investigating the death of 16-year-old Brianna Ghey, have not ruled out the possibility that the killing was a transphobic hate crime. The force urged the public to “avoid speculation online and be wary of sharing misinformation relating to this case”.
Disinfo black ops: what you need to read
A new investigation published this morning – produced in partnership with an international consortium of journalists from 30 outlets including Le Monde, Der Spiegel and El País – exposes the activities of a unit of Israeli contractors run by Tal Hanan, a former special forces operative who appears to have been working under the radar in elections in various countries for more than two decades. Hanan, who used the pseudonym “Jorge”, did not respond to detailed questions, but denies any wrongdoing. Here’s what you need to click on:
The main story | How Hanan and “Team Jorge” claimed to make their services available to intelligence agencies, political campaigns and private companies that wanted to secretly manipulate public opinion
The software | How “Team Jorge” uses Advanced Impact Media Solutions, or Aims, which can control 30,000 fake online profiles on Twitter, Facebook, Gmail, Instagram, Amazon and Airbnb – and how Aims’ bots have been involved in everything from a #MeToo controversy in Canada to a Senegalese election
The undercover operation | How journalists stayed on the tail of “Jorge” for six months and finally caught him on camera
The footage | Watch a short video explaining how “Team Jorge” works and showing Tal Hanan meeting with undercover reporters
The project | How this special investigation came together – and why the Guardian is partnering with journalists around the world to examine the global disinformation crisis
In depth: Secret talks, compromises and tabloid chatter but – finally – a deal?
This is all quite chewy – so here’s the very short version: the Northern Ireland protocol put a customs border in the Irish Sea, which unionists and Eurosceptics hated, even though it was aimed at avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland. After the UK threatened to abandon the deal unilaterally, talks with the EU to reform it instead started to make progress. Now the talks appear to be reaching a conclusion.
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What is the Northern Ireland protocol again?
Here’s a fuller account. The Northern Ireland protocol is the part of the 2019 Brexit deal that governs post-Brexit trading arrangements in the region. In order to avoid having a trade and customs border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland – which many feared could be a source of instability on the island – it effectively allowed Northern Ireland to keep a place within the EU trade bloc by instituting some checks on goods arriving there from Great Britain. It also required the region to follow a swathe of EU single market rules. Rory Carroll’s explainer from last May remains a useful primer.
The protocol’s set-up is often described as a customs border in the Irish Sea, and while it is now enshrined in international law, it has been unpopular with hard Brexit supporters and Northern Ireland’s unionists, who view it as a threat to Northern Ireland’s place within the UK.
The Democratic Unionist party, the biggest unionist party at the Stormont assembly in Belfast, paralysed the power-sharing agreement with Sinn Féin last year over its opposition to the protocol, and said it would not return to devolved government until it was overhauled.
The DUP’s decision – and ongoing disquiet on the Tory right – prompted moves by the British government to give itself the ability to make unilateral changes to the arrangement through the Northern Ireland Protocol bill.
Ministers claimed that the British government’s preference was to reach a negotiated deal. The bill – which has still not been passed by parliament – also appears to be an attempt to create leverage with the EU: either reach a deal, or be stuck with the consequences of our unilateral decision.
Since that would be a clear breach of the UK’s treaty obligations under international law, the approach has been highly controversial. Meanwhile, talks on changing the deal that had re-opened in January 2022 picked up pace, and in recent weeks, it looks as if the two sides have found some common ground.
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What do we know about a possible deal?
Last week, the Guardian reported a breakthrough on food and animal health checks – part of a plan that would create green and red lanes at Northern Irish ports: lighter checks on goods staying in the region, stricter ones for those going on to the EU. That followed an agreement on real-time data sharing between the UK and EU, viewed as essential to making the plan work.
A few days later, the BBC reported that talks were “in their end stages”. Yesterday, the Daily Telegraph splashed on a similar story, which said that a new deal is expected within a fortnight. Then, a story by Jessica Elgot, Lisa O’Carroll and Jennifer Rankin for the Guardian quoted UK sources who said that talks could be finalised as early as next week.
The story also reported that a deal would mean the UK agreeing to drop the Northern Ireland protocol bill. The Telegraph reported that Rishi Sunak’s government had accepted that the European court of justice would be the ultimate arbiter on EU law in Northern Ireland – but that it would only be used as a last resort, with most legal clashes resolved in Belfast.
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How confident should we be that it will be finalised?
While reports of the last few days suggest that a deal is on track, significant barriers remain – above all, the headache for Sunak of getting the DUP and the European Research Group of Eurosceptic Tory MPs onside.
This morning, the Times reports (£) claims that the text of a deal has been sitting on Rishi Sunak’s desk for over a week, with a view in Downing Street that any announcement needs to be carefully handled lest it inflame Tory infighting over Brexit. Meanwhile, EU leaders have repeatedly said that nothing is settled until it is signed.
Even so, there are reasons to think that a deal has a good chance of making it across the line. It has been suggested that it could be ratified through the joint committee that manages the protocol, rather than requiring a new vote in London and Brussels. While the ERG does not have enough votes to derail a deal, given Labour would likely support it, that approach would further limit their influence – though they could still cause serious political trouble for Sunak.
There is one other irritant for Sunak as he seeks to conclude the negotiations. In this piece, Jessica Elgot explains that whether or not he can keep his MPs in line depends on whether Boris Johnson views the protocol as “his moment to stage a key intervention that could launch a potential comeback”.
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So would a deal mean the end of the Brexit wars?
Lol, no. Already, the prospect has drawn a threat in the Sun from a Conservative MP that unless it “ends the supremacy of EU laws and institutions in NI” – that is, removes any role for the ECJ – “there will be, as Robocop said, ‘trouble’”, whatever the hell that means.
For a more fleshed out sense of the mood, we might look to the response to the Observer’s report that an event was held at Ditchley Park to discuss how to “make Brexit work better with our neighbours in Europe”.
This morning, Martin Kettle writes: “For anyone who believes in trying to solve problems, the mature response to such a meeting is: ‘Good. Now, what’s the next step?’” Nonetheless, the event has been seized on by the most fervent Brexit supporters as fuel for a betrayal narrative. Nigel Farage called it “the full sell-out of Brexit”. In a Daily Mail story that led the front page under the headline, “SECRET PLOT TO UNRAVEL BREXIT”, Boris Johnson’s Brexit negotiator Lord Frost said it was evidence that “many in our political and business establishment want to unravel the deals we did to exit the EU in 2020”.
Those who regret Brexit probably shouldn’t rub their hands in glee at this: it could hardly be clearer evidence that however badly it goes in the years ahead, and even as popular support continues to shrink, the project’s most committed supporters will always view problems as evidence that we’re just not doing it hard enough.
What else we’ve been reading
Sassie Smith went to the LA police department for help when her husband was having a mental health crisis. By the end of the interaction with the police, her husband, Takar, was dead. Sam Levin spoke to Smith about what her life has been like since her husband’s death, examining why another unarmed black person was fatally shot when in need of aid. Nimo
After the shocking news of a German ballet director who smeared dog faeces on a critic’s face over a bad review, Guardian critics remember their own brushes with disgruntled subjects, who frankly come out of this pretty badly. Features violence, the C-word and a turd in a jiffy bag. Archie
After living in a Spanish eco-village for six years with his partner, relying on little else than sunshine and communal living, Andrew Wilson decided it was time to return home to London with its grey skies and exceptionally high cost of living. In this hopeful piece, Wilson explains why. Nimo
Eater London is ceasing regular publication – terrible news for anyone who liked finding places to eat in the capital that might not make the traditional critics’ picks. Here’s a piece about a David v Goliath trademark fight over the term “taqueria” that captures something of the spirit summarised in editor Adam Coghlan’s farewell: “to question who restaurants are there to serve”. Archie
Leonard Masauli examines how a lack of adequate healthcare has left people with albinism in rural Malawi in constant fear of getting skin cancer. Nimo
Sport
Champions League | AC Milan will take a narrow 1-0 advantage into the second leg of their last 16 tie against Tottenham Hotspur after an early goal from Brahim Diaz (above) at the San Siro. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich won the first leg of their tie against Bayern Munich 1-0 thanks to a goal from Kingsley Coman.
Boxing | Great Britain will not be sending a team to next month’s Women’s World Boxing Championships in India, after the decision to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete under their national flags despite the war in Ukraine. GB will be joining the USA and Ireland in not participating.
Football | Ahead of tonight’s crucial Arsenal v Manchester City fixture, Barney Ronay writes that amid the current adversity over the Premier League’s case against City’s owners, “there really is no better time to stuff the process and go full Haaland … perhaps this sudden force majeure, the addition of a little external jeopardy, is the nudge Guardiola needed to see Haaland as a loaded gun, not a question to be solved.”
The front pages
“Beijing could use police cameras to spy on Britain, warns watchdog” – our Guardian splash today. “Agony … & Joy” – the Daily Mirror has the story of sisters Teddi, who has been cured by gene therapy, and Nala, who has the same rare condition but is tragically too old to benefit. Teddi is also on the front of the Times which leads with “Back me or leave party, Starmer tells Labour’s left”.
“Sick note crackdown to boost workforce” – the Daily Telegraph says doctors would be told to sign fewer people off work “under plans to reinvigorate the economy”. “Defiant army chief says we can stand up to Putin” – that’s the Daily Express after questions were raised over the size of Britain’s army. Also on military matters, the Financial Times goes with “Russia masses aircraft within striking range of Ukraine targets, west warns”. “Nicola: stained glove found” the Sun reports as the search for Nicola Bulley continues. The i this morning has “Women face postcode lottery for HRT supply”. “Was it a hate crime?” the Metro asks about the killing of Brianna Ghey.
Today in Focus
Why is the review of the counter-terrorism strategy Prevent so controversial?
The UK scheme has long had its critics, but now even the review looking at how to overhaul it is facing criticism. Why is the debate around Prevent so heated?
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Romance can mean different things to different people. In this edition of My most romantic moment, a Guardian series chronicling unexpected everyday love stories, Morwenna Ferrier describes the tender and simple gesture of her boyfriend giving her a bowl of pasta after she gave birth to their son. He put the dish together at around 2am, cutting the linguine into little pieces, exactly as she would want it even though she had not mentioned that to him beforehand. “It was the best thing I’ve ever eaten and made all the better because I didn’t drop any of it on my son’s head,” Ferrier wrote.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Also try out the Guardian’s new daily word game, Wordiply. Until tomorrow.
