Good morning. This time last week, a Ukrainian marine commander fighting in Mariupol posted a video message on Facebook saying that his soldiers were “maybe facing our last days, if not hours.” But the Ukrainian forces holed up at the Azovstal iron and steelworks are still there.
That might seem like the kind of story of extraordinary resistance that has coloured our view of the war in Ukraine – but the reality is much darker. And this morning the remaining Ukrainian soldiers and civilians in the city remain trapped after Vladimir Putin rejected a new appeal from UN secretary general António Guterres to allow the UN to help in an evacuation.
For today’s newsletter, I’ve spoken to Peter Beaumont, an experienced foreign correspondent for the Guardian and Observer who has been covering the conflict since it began. He gave us a hugely useful guide to what’s happening in Mariupol – and what the last days of battle there tell us about the wider war. That’s right after the headlines.
One other quick note – we’ve had loads of useful feedback on First Edition so far, most of it positive, which is a relief. (Thanks!) But one thing mentioned by a lot of people is that they’d like sport headlines, so we’re bringing that in from today – including a report on an incredible Champions League game which annoyingly I had to go to bed before the end of. You’ll find them right below In depth. If you haven’t already, please do hit reply and tell us what you think.
Five big stories
Music | The former BBC DJ Tim Westwood has been accused of sexual misconduct by seven women over 25 years, the Guardian and BBC revealed in a joint investigation. All the women who have come forward are black. Westwood denied the allegations.
Politics | The editor of the Mail on Sunday has refused a meeting with the House of Commons speaker over an article accusing Labour’s Angela Rayner of “Basic Instinct” tactics. Rayner said yesterday she had begged the newspaper not to run the story.
Russia | Moscow has told Poland and Bulgaria it will halt gas supplies from Wednesday, following their refusal to pay the Russian energy giant Gazprom in roubles, in an apparent warning shot to the rest of Europe.
Politics | Former Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan, convicted of molesting a 15-year-old boy, sat on an expert panel on grooming gangs while under police investigation. The Home Office said it had been unaware of the accusations.
Twitter | The UK and EU warned the social media platform must comply with new content rules or face sanctions ranging from fines to a total ban, as concerns were raised that hate speech will increase under the ownership of Elon Musk.
In depth: Lessons from the siege of Mariupol
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Mariupol is a crucial battle – not just a symbolic one
In the two months since Russia’s invasion, the battle for Mariupol has made the city famous. The devastation wreaked by the invading forces, exodus of hundreds of thousands of refugees and dogged resistance of a relatively small number of Ukrainian troops faced with siege tactics mean that questions over its future are central to how we think about the war.
“It’s simple to grasp some of this,” says Peter. “The particular circumstances of a city that was already partly cut off [by the Russian-occupied Donbas and Donetsk regions and the sea] mean that it was easier to encircle. Its treatment has been utterly brutal but it’s also ultimately consistent with Russian tactics elsewhere.”
But Russia’s siege is much more than symbolic. “You want your defensive positions to be able to support each other, and Russia is trying to kick away the legs on the chair,” Peter said. “It makes defending the rest of the coast much harder. Mariupol is a proper port, with big, deep berths designed for steel shipments and grain bulk carriers. You can use it to resupply your forces. And you severely damage the Ukrainian economy. They gain a significant advantage in the war and set terms for future peace negotiations by cutting Ukraine off from the sea.”
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To all intents and purposes, the city has already fallen
While some Ukrainian forces remain holed up in the city’s steelworks, local officials estimate that about 80% of Mariupol’s prewar population of 500,000 have fled, with 21,000 dead. About 90% of the buildings are destroyed. (“We are prepared to leave the city because there is nothing left to defend,” Captain Svyatoslav Palamar, one of the soldiers at the steelworks, recently told the New York Times.)
Meanwhile, the estimated 5-10,000 Russian forces in the area can act with impunity. Vladimir Putin said yesterday that there was no more fighting in the city. “There is no question to me that the Ukrainians are surrounded and cut off from supply lines,” said Peter. “There’s nobody coming to rescue them. It’s just a question of how horrible the end will be.”
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The risk of a ground attack on the last Ukrainian troops is high – and the reward is small
An estimated 1,000 Ukrainian forces – as well as hundreds of civilians – are thought to be located at the Azovstal steelworks, a sprawling complex covering about four square miles with a network of passages in its basement. Metinvest, which owns the steel mill, says that the bunkers below ground were used as shelters in 2014 during a previous attempt on the city by Russian-backed separatists and were stocked with enough food and water to last 4,000 people three weeks. This image suggests the intricacies of the site that would make a direct assault risky for an attacking force:
In those circumstances, says Peter, there may have been some misunderstanding of the reasons for Russia’s reluctance to go in on the ground even as it continues to shell the site. “Perhaps some people have slightly got the narrative wrong when the Kremlin said we’re going to seal it off, as if this was a Russian defeat.”
Peter points out that the presence at the site of the Azov battalion, a unit linked to the far right with a significant neo-Nazi contingent, means that “in propaganda terms, pictures of these guys stumbling out with their hands up would be a much bigger win than potentially losing hundreds of soldiers by trying to raise a Russian flag over the steelworks.”
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The news has dried up – but the suffering isn’t over
Mariupol has not had heat, power, gas, or electricity since the beginning of March. There have been claims – as recently as yesterday – of Russian attacks on humanitarian corridors as civilians have tried to flee, and Ukrainian officials say that about 40,000 people have been forcibly deported to Russia. Russia has also been accused of deliberately hiding evidence of war crimes by burying bodies in mass graves, like those shown just below the road in this satellite image:
While claims of atrocities cannot be confirmed by reporters on the ground, that speaks to another reason for a brief lull in reporting on the city: the difficulty of getting the story out. “People can’t charge their phones, and even the military are able to communicate less,” said Peter. “I haven’t been able to reach anyone there recently. There’s no functioning humanitarian corridor, and so people aren’t picking up stories outside because nobody is coming out to say what’s going on.”
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Russia’s strategy tells us how it aims to succeed in the war
Even after the situation at Azovstal is resolved, there may be insurgent resistance in Mariupol – “But that will take time,” Peter said. “Until then, this is the kind of fighting where Russia has the advantage. The blitzkrieg approach to Kyiv failed, and their vulnerability on logistics was a disaster. But here, it shows that when they can get around places, and bring artillery to bear with solid supply lines, it will take a long time, but they can prevail, at least for now.”
That dynamic is similar to the fighting now taking place in the east of Ukraine, and suggests that Russia has reshaped the conflict according to its advantages. “The Russian military is a big, cranky, horrible machine,” Peter said. “Bits may keep falling off, but it keeps grinding on.”
Sport
Football | Manchester City beat Real Madrid 4-3 in a classic Champions League semi-final first leg. City led by two goals three times but were pegged back by Madrid’s Karim Benzema. “The brain reeled taking this in,” writes Barney Ronay.
Tennis | Wimbledon chiefs have defended a ban on Russian and Belarusian tennis players from the championships in solidarity with Ukraine. Novak Djokovic will defend his title in June as the vaccination mandate has now been lifted.
Football | The Philippines qualified for the women’s World Cup in 2023 with a remarkable win against Taiwan in the Women’s Asian Cup. It’s the first time the country has sent any team to an international football tournament.
What else we’ve been reading
The front pages
The Guardian leads with its joint investigation with the BBC: “DJ Westwood accused of sexual misconduct by multiple women”. The Independent also carries the story on its digital front, above its splash: “Cabinet clash over plans to ease cost of living”. The Telegraph has “Sunak faces Cabinet pressure to cut tax” while the i newspaper says “Annual MOTs facing axe in new cost of living plan”. The Daily Express says “You’re paying record £718bn in tax..but for what?”
“No, Mister speaker!” is the Mail’s headline, referring to a request by the Commons Speaker for the The Mail on Sunday’s editor to appear before him over its Angela Rayner ‘Basic Instinct’ report. The Times leads with “Russia threatens strikes against western targets”, while the Financial Times say “Tesla dented as investors count on Musk share sale to pay for Twitter”. The Mirror reports on a Lotto winner who has given away half her fortune under the headline “Addicted to Giving”.
We want to hear from you
Are you back in the office or still WFH – and how do you feel about it?
Today in Focus
Searching for the shadow man – Part 1
Leaked footage documenting the 2013 execution of dozens of Syrian civilians led two genocide researchers on a painstaking search over three years to find the man responsible. The first of a two-part special.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
For the first time ever, the Proms will include a concert of video game music. The event, titled Gaming Prom, will be held on 1 August at the Royal Albert Hall featuring everything from Pokémon to Battlefield 2042. It seems like good news all round: the Proms will have a route to a new, much younger, audience, and maybe the regular patrons of classical concerts will be inspired to pick up a PS5 controller.
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