Good morning. Except for those who would laugh maniacally and insist everything was fine even if their beach-based ice-cream burst into flames, it’s been an unsettling couple of days in Britain.
The immediate impact of record 40C temperatures was severe enough in its own right: ask the residents of Wennington, where dozens of houses burned (pictured above) after a fire started on nearby shrubland, what they think of the Daily Mail’s disdain yesterday for “apocalyptic climate change pundits” who act as if “Britain was about to spontaneously combust”. But for most of us, the most alarming thing about the heatwave was the 48-hour preview it provided of what’s coming down the line.
By 2050, 35C summers will be commonplace in the south of England, and 40C days will come far more often. And yet even after a day like yesterday, it’s quite hard to imagine what that will be like. At this moment of sharpened insight to what’s in store, today’s newsletter offers three postcards from our diverging possible futures – tiny pieces of a much bigger picture. And while there’s a great deal to be worried about, there’s also a huge amount left to fight for. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Conservatives | Kemi Badenoch has been eliminated from the Conservative leadership race, setting up a contest on Wednesday between Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss to join Rishi Sunak in the party members’ vote. Truss narrowed the gap with Mordaunt, who appears to have lost momentum in recent days.
Labour | Labour under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn was riven by infighting, with his supporters and opponents using the issue of antisemitism “as a factional weapon”, a long-awaited report has said. The report describes “toxicity on both sides of the relationship” between Corbyn’s office and Labour HQ.
Public sector pay | Millions of public sector workers including teachers, doctors, nurses, and police officers are to receive a below-inflation pay rises this year, raising the prospect of industrial action.
Women’s health | Ministers have vowed to tackle decades of “systemic” gender health inequality in England with plans for compulsory women’s health training for doctors as part of the government’s first women’s health strategy.
Coronavirus | The World Health Organization has urged European governments to increase Covid-19 monitoring amid a surge in cases across the continent.
In depth: Postcards from 2050
***
Transport Crumbling infrastructure or electric dreams?
Over the last 48 hours, airport runways have melted. Two UK rail mainlines have closed, and others have run much slower than normal. Roads have buckled, or turned into “black goo”. Congestion has fallen as many people stay at home, but those working jobs that require them to travel have had to navigate a creaking and overheated public transport network.
By 2050, even if the worst case scenarios of climate change are avoided, regular long hot summers will place those same networks under acute pressure. It will take “decades” to update rail infrastructure designed to function below 35C, or to replace tarmac on roads that struggles at extreme temperatures, transport secretary Grant Shapps said yesterday. When multiplied by the remote-working trend that the pandemic accelerated, that suggests the emergence of an even more pronounced division between those who can stay at home – and those with hands-on, mostly low-paid jobs who have to brave crumbling infrastructure whatever the weather.
On the other hand, serious investment in that infrastructure – and the vehicles that use it – could help meet net zero targets at the same time as mitigating the effects of inevitable temperature rises. Producing zero-emission road vehicles could add £9.7bn to the economy by 2050 (and the cost of the batteries they need has already dropped by 85% between 2010 and 2018). Safer bike routes and better cycle parking could reduce the demand on trains and buses. Decarbonised “last mile” logistics using cargo bikes and electric vans would further reduce congestion and environmental impacts.
All of this would reduce air pollution and the more than 28,000 associated deaths each year, as well as bring down the number of fatal road accidents. These prospects aren’t some childish utopia – they’re part of the Department for Transport’s own plan.
***
Cities Urban drought or human-scale havens?
In London, the fire brigade declared a major incident yesterday because of what mayor Sadiq Khan said was a “huge surge” in fires across the capital. In Leeds, water bottles were distributed and bin collections ended early. In Liverpool, Bristol and Nottingham, pubs that normally relish additional business in warm weather instead closed because of dangerously hot kitchens.
Meanwhile, researchers found that people of colour are four times more likely to live in areas at high risk from heatwaves, in part because a higher proportion live in high rises, or in areas where there aren’t enough trees and green spaces to mitigate the heat.
All of these are symptoms of the heat island effect, which exacerbates heatwaves in urban areas. And the UK, used to temperate conditions and with ageing building stock, will not have an easy task to reduce or mitigate the problem in the future.
By 2050, the climate of Manchester in July will be similar to that of present-day Montevideo, Uruguay, a 2019 study found – about 6.2C warmer than it is today. That could mean extreme urban drought, heat exhaustion, increases in asthma and heart conditions. Manchester’s fate will be relatively mild compared to the 22% of cities, like Kuala Lumpur and Yangon, which will face extremes beyond anything previously experienced.
There are ways to address these problems. The Guardian’s architecture critic Oliver Wainwright wrote recently that painting rooftops a lighter colour (pictured above) can reduce daytime temperatures by up to 3C and reduce heat-related deaths by up to a quarter.
A bank of trees above concrete can reduce temperatures by a remarkable 20C in summer. New bodies of water can have a similar effect, while better building regulations to ensure new homes are properly insulated would make them cooler in the summer as well as warmer in the winter, and reduce their associated emissions.
Bob Ward, deputy chair of the London Climate Change Partnership, called last month for more external shutters which would keep the sunlight out in the first place, and more public cooling places – like shared air-conditioned buildings or naturally colder spaces such as churches.
One vision of the future was presented by the progressive thinktank Common Wealth’s proposed remodelling of Glasgow as part of its 2020 blueprint for a British Green New Deal.
Take a look at these alternative images of the city’s future: on the one hand, a cluttered and polluted urban environment where humans come second to even parked cars and there are few patches of green or ways for CO2 to be absorbed; on the other, a quieter, almost car-free urban space where people have space to move, cleaner air to breathe and trees to shelter beneath.
***
Health Tripling heat-related deaths or better health for everyone?
Final estimates for the number of excess deaths in the UK caused by this week’s weather will take time, but experts said yesterday that there may have been about 1,000 associated deaths in the last few days. Last year, two less intense periods of extreme heat caused about 1,600 fatalities in the UK.
Meanwhile, operations are being cancelled, ambulance callouts are up, and doctors who spoke to the Independent said that the heatwave coming on top of existing coronavirus pressures had “broken” the healthcare system.
Preparing the NHS for an era of longer periods of such intense heat will be a serious challenge. The number of heat-related deaths in the UK alone is expected to triple by 2050, while the arrival of dengue and Zika or tick-borne diseases, worsening asthma, and an increase in nutritional problems will all have a disproportionate impact on minority communities and those living in poverty. There will be significantly greater pressure on mental health services. Then there’s the fact that the NHS produces about the same emissions as Denmark on its own.
The NHS itself can only do so much to control the challenges on its plate in 30 years’ time. The good news is that many of the measures which will limit the worst effects of climate change will also do a lot to protect it. A report published by the Royal Society last year said that “the value of the health benefits of climate change mitigation has the potential to offset most of the initial mitigation costs”.
Among many other things, it found that replacing half of the UK’s meat and dairy consumption with fruit, vegetables and cereal would reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 19% – but also prevent 37,000 deaths a year.
If changes like these seem like profound adjustments to the way we live, that’s because they are. But faced with the prospect of many more days like yesterday, their urgency may be more obvious to more people than ever.
What else we’ve been reading
Conservative MP Andrew Murrison’s article about the Tory leadership is much more interesting than the average politician’s opinion piece. He rejects claims Rishi Sunak has betrayed Boris Johnson by recounting Sunak’s rejection of his entreaties to do so - and, noting claims that Johnson himself is behind the rumour, adds: “His chief lieutenants are most certainly at it.” Archie
In a week of extreme heat in the UK and beyond, Daniel Lavelle writes about how best to help those who are most vulnerable. Nimo
If you like Lisbon’s lurid green frogs and maximalist crockery, you’ll enjoy Larry Ryan’s paean to Portuguese style – and how it took over the UK. Also, check out the picture of a blue and pink ceramic lizard. Archie
They’re often described as the best day of your life, but weddings can be a headache too, not least when there are arcane and complex marriage laws to take into account. Prof Nick Hopkins of the Law Commission argues it’s time to end restrictions to where and how people in England and Wales can get married. Nimo
“There are lots of books on how to write for soap operas,” writes Stuart Jeffries, “but none, as far as I can see, telling you how to end one.” Ahead of Neighbours’ farewell next week, his tour of how soaps conclude is nonetheless full of gems. Archie
Sport
Athletics | Jake Wightman won Britain’s first gold medal of the World Championships with a shock victory in the men’s 1,500m. His father Geoff was the in-stadium commentator, and told fans: “That’s my son. I coach him. And he’s the world champion.”
Cricket | South Africa posted 333-5 before bowling England out for 271 to deny Ben Stokes a happy ending to his one-day international career. Stokes, who announced his retirement from 50-over cricket before the match, was out LBW for 5.
Golf | The growing split at the top of golf will widen significantly on Wednesday with the expected confirmation that Henrik Stenson will not captain Europe in the Ryder Cup next year, having accepted a lucrative offer to join the Saudi Arabia-backed LIV tour.
The front pages
The hottest temperature ever recorded in Britain call for a separate wrap of the papers today, courtesy of Martin Farrer. A summary follows.
The Mirror’s splash headline says “40C Britain’s burning” across a picture of houses on fire in Wennington on the eastern outskirts of London. A strap line says “Hottest day in history”. The Guardian shows the burning houses as well and its splash headline reads: “‘A wakeup call’: UK hits highest ever temperature”. The Metro picks out 40.3C in flaming orange and says “Burning hot Britain”. The Sun has “Hellfire” over a similar picture and says the heatwave “brings UK to standstill”, but adds “now bring on the rain” with some showers and storms forecast. “Britain ignites as temperatures break 40C barrier for first time” says the Telegraph, accompanied by the burning house. In a change of tone picked up by several observers on social media, the Mail has “Nightmare of the wildfires”, after it derided “snowflake Britain” the previous day. Its main story though remains the Tory leadership race: “Truss allies warn: no dirty backroom deals”. The Times leads with “Truss closing on Mordaunt”. A “hamper” story across the top says “Record high of 40.3C sparks wildfires in tinderbox Britain”. The Express says “Britain burns in 40.3C heat” but its lead is “Surging Truss: you can trust me to be bold and cut bills”. The i says “Tinderbox UK ignites at record 40.3C” while also reporting “Jubilant Truss revives her campaign to become PM”. It was also very hot in Scotland, the Daily Record notes, with a new record high of 34.5C set in Charterhall in the Borders. “Britain’s burning” the splash says. The Financial Times has a picture story to report the weather – “Burning Britain: Houses blaze in record heat” – but its lead is “ECB and BoE follow Fed lead with signal of more hawkish rate rises”.
Today in Focus
Sri Lankans forced their president to flee the country: now what?
President Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka last week after witnessing the storming of his official residence.
Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
A project has been set up in Athens to help refugees tell their stories of migration through comedy. The classes, organised by Counterpoints Art, allow communities to come together, connect and bond, helping participants to learn English, giving them self confidence and affording their stories a level of complexity and nuance that they often aren’t given. “If you just say horrible things [to an audience], it will be harder for them to digest because we’re all so tired of the bullshit going around the world,” says Jalal Joinda, one of the facilitators, “Comedy is a way you can send strong messages to people without them feeling bored.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
