Good morning. This week ought to be an excellent one for Keir Starmer, and a terrible one for Rishi Sunak: ONS figures just out which show no fall in inflation, the chance that another batch of ONS data on Thursday will show the UK in recession, and then the results of two byelections on Friday morning likely to shift two previously safe Tory seats into the Labour column.
But it isn’t working out like that. The reason: the buildup to a third byelection later this month, to replace the late Labour MP Sir Tony Lloyd in Rochdale. Labour’s candidate, Azhar Ali, was widely expected to stroll to victory. But the Mail on Sunday got hold of a recording of Ali saying that Israel deliberately allowed the 7 October massacre to happen so that it could attack Gaza. Labour stuck by their man for 36 painful hours. Then more comments at the same meeting in October were reported by the Daily Mail, revealing that Ali had blamed “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” for the suspension of the MP Andy McDonald for using the phrase “between the river and the sea”. At last, Labour disowned him.
But because the candidate selection deadline has passed, Ali will still appear on the ballot as a Labour candidate. Now Labour has suspended a second parliamentary candidate, Graham Jones, over remarks at the same meeting – and Starmer faces very difficult questions about why he initially backed Ali, and whether he applies a double standard on antisemitism depending on where he sees political advantage. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s political correspondent Aletha Adu, unpacks all of it. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Israel-Gaza war | Israel is in breach of international law as the occupying power if it fails to provide food and water to the people of Gaza, the UK foreign secretary, Lord Cameron, has said. Cameron also said that it was impossible for people in the Rafah area to leave, suggesting the UK would not endorse a full-scale attack there.
Retail | The Body Shop has collapsed into administration in the UK, less than three months after it was taken over by a private equity company, in a move that puts hundreds of jobs at risk at the cosmetics chain.
US news | After weeks of setbacks and delays, the US Senate gave final approval to a $95m wartime aid package for Ukraine, Israel and other American allies early Tuesday morning, sending the bill to the Republican-controlled House where its fate is uncertain. Read an explainer on the bill.
BBC | Tributes have been paid to the DJ Steve Wright, for decades the voice of the BBC on afternoon radio, who has died at the age of 69. Sara Cox told BBC Radio 2 listeners Wright was “an extraordinary broadcaster, a really, really kind person” and “a huge, huge part of the Radio 2 family”. Read Mark Lawson’s tribute.
UK news | One of London’s last remaining gentlemen’s clubs, the Garrick, has taken the highly unusual step of expelling a member, amid rising tensions over the club’s unwillingness to change its men-only membership rules. Colin Bough was expelled after sending a series of angry emails expressing his conviction that women should be admitted immediately.
In depth: ‘There are clearly questions of factionalism’
While there have been credible reports that Israel had obtained an undated Hamas battle plan in 2022 and was warned by Egypt of potential violence a few days before the 7 October attack took place, the failure to act on it appears to be the result of scepticism about Hamas’s capabilities. There is no evidence for the suggestion that Israel deliberately allowed the massacre to happen, a claim that bears the hallmarks of an antisemitic conspiracy theory.
Azhar Ali’s remarks would therefore appear to be subject to Keir Starmer’s promise of “zero tolerance of antisemitism”. Why wasn’t this the case? “What they say is that he had no record of antisemitism, that the comments were out of character, and he has been viewed as an ally to the Jewish community,” Aletha Adu said.
“There are clearly questions of factionalism too,” she added. “Ali is seen as having been aligned with the party leadership, and he knows a lot of Labour grandees.” Others have asked whether a different approach might have been taken if the deadline for replacing him as a candidate had not already passed.
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Why did the party leadership change its position?
By Labour’s own account, the new details brought to light by the Daily Mail – the claim that Jewish influence over the media had led to Andy McDonald’s suspension – took the case against Ali to a different level. And it is true that the idea that Jews exercise control of the media is a classically antisemitic trope, in balder language than the initially reported comments.
Labour initially said that Ali had fallen for “an online conspiracy theory and that does not represent his view”; they would argue that the second story revealed that this was more than a problem of gullibility, even if they were made at the same event. The claim from Labour sources reported by Aletha and Eleni Courea in this piece is that Ali’s comments were viewed as an attempt to show councillors on the brink of quitting the party over its stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict that he “understood their perspective”.
But it’s hard to ignore the fact that Ali is a loyal supporter of Starmer. And the Labour leader’s critics will reasonably ask if such a defence would ever have been viewed as mitigation for those on the left, who have been punished much more briskly for less obviously damning remarks. Andy McDonald was suspended from the parliamentary party for using the phrase “from the river to the sea”, a heavily contested slogan seen as antisemitic by some and as an expression of solidarity with Palestinians by others. Last month, Kate Osamor MP was also suspended for describing Israel’s attack on Gaza as a genocide on Holocaust Memorial Day, despite an apology for the timing of her comments. There’s more on these cases and others in this piece.
“There is a contrast with the speed with which those MPs lost the whip,” Aletha said. “Some people are asking how they weigh the severity of a case when the person aligns with them politically.” Another blunter explanation for the change in tack: as the story rolled on, it became more politically toxic, and the party leadership decided that it had to cauterise the wound. The removal of Graham Jones as a general election candidate, for saying “fucking Israel” and arguing Britons who fight in the Israel Defense Forces should be jailed, has proceeded on a significantly accelerated timetable despite his remarks being less flagrant than Ali’s.
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Who’s going to win in Rochdale?
The other significant factor in this byelection is that George Galloway (above), the one-time Labour MP with a reputation for standing in seats where he can capitalise on ethnic and religious divides, is running as a Workers party candidate and seeking the votes of those opposed to Israel’s invasion of Gaza. He has beaten Labour twice before, in 2005 and 2012. The decision to back Ali initially, Aletha says, may partly have been motivated by a view that “it was more important to stop Galloway”.
Meanwhile, Helen Pidd writes, Simon Danczuk – who was Rochdale’s MP until he was brought down by a series of scandals including sending explicit messages to a 17-year-old girl – is running for the rightwing populist Reform party and now presenting himself as Galloway’s main rival. A Green party candidate also lost his party’s endorsement over remarks he made on social media about Gaza and “the Islamic religion”. Rochdale voters might reasonably wish there was a way to call it off and start again. (Helen Pidd heard from some of them yesterday.) “This,” writes Marina Hyde, “is one of those byelection campaigns that makes you yearn to immerse yourself in sheep dip just from reading about it.”
While Ali will now lose the support of Labour’s campaigning and turnout machine, he may well still win: Tony Lloyd had a big majority, the polls are now in Labour’s favour nationally, and some voters may not be aware of the current controversy. There is no doubt that the outcome in the 29 February byelection is now much less clearcut than it had appeared – but it’s also worth remembering that Rochdale will have the chance to send another MP to Westminster before the end of the year.
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What about the wider impact on the polls?
Labour’s immediate problem is perhaps somewhat mitigated by its prospect of a more positive story to tell after two byelections later this week. And since it already held Rochdale anyway, it is not losing an opportunity to claim a Tory scalp.
With most people who will vote in the general election still some months from focusing on politics, the party may hope that the polling impact of Ali’s case will be limited. “It’s up for debate how much people will be following it,” Aletha said. “But it’s been leading radio news bulletins, and on the front pages. And Rishi Sunak has already been saying that this shows it’s a con that the Labour party have changed – that’s a line he’ll be using all the way up to the election, and it fits into his wider narrative of Labour as a party that can’t be trusted.”
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What does all this tell us about Labour and antisemitism?
Starmer has told the public that Labour had an antisemitism problem under Corbyn, but that his leadership has rooted it out. Whatever the origins of that undertaking, his internal critics say that project is more about purging his opponents on the left than anything else – and now have powerful evidence for their case. Yesterday, Martin Forde, who was asked by Starmer to investigate allegations of bullying, racism and sexism within the party in the wake of the antisemitism crisis, said that the change of stance “appears shambolic”, and added: “One of the things that concerned us when we talked about weaponisation was certainly the perception that antisemitism was along factional lines.”
Once again, Labour is facing serious questions about the transparency and fairness of its processes when dealing with such cases. The situation is further complicated, said Aletha, by fears the party is facing a loss of support among Muslim voters over its stance on the war in Gaza.
“A lot of Black and Asian members have felt for a long time that antisemitism is indefensible, but that meanwhile nothing is really done about Islamophobia and anti-Black racism,” she said. “They resent the feeling that the leadership is allowing people of different minorities to be pitted against each other. Labour really needs to find a way to challenge all of these perceptions of bias, because these issues aren’t going away any time soon – and if they win the election, the spotlight of being in power is only going to make it harder.”
What else we’ve been reading
Devastating wildfires have been ripping through South America (one of which is pictured above in Vina del Mar, Chile), killing people and destroying large swathes of land. Sam Meadows details the impact and the need to create more robust environmental protections. Nimo
Happy Valentine’s Day! Here’s a piece about what to do when you don’t want to have sex with your partner any more. Archie
Emma Dabiri artfully disproves the conspiracy theories being pushed by Russell Brand, Steve Bannon and other far-right pundits about Ireland’s history. Nimo
How does GB News get away with peddling lies about coronavirus vaccines causing “turbo cancer”? Because Ofcom has become “overreliant on the belief that any intervention could have a chilling effect on creativity”, writes Jane Martinson. Archie
When a lecturer used an AI detection software to scan his students work it came back “100% AI-generated” for one of the essays – but the student in question denied cheating. Robert Topinka writes that the hype around AI has led to a culture of heightened suspicion. Nimo
Sport
Champions League | Goals from Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden (above) led Manchester City to a 3-1 win at FC Copenhagen in the first leg of the round of 16. Meanwhile, Brahim Díaz stepped up in the absence of Jude Bellingham and scored to lead Real Madrid to a 1-0 first leg win away to Leipzig.
Football | Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s 25% purchase of Manchester United has been ratified by the Premier League. The Football Association is yet to complete its part of the process, though this is considered a formality.
Cricket | Mark Wood is poised to return to England’s attack for the third Test against India, with Rehan Ahmed’s visa status the one remaining question for the tourists as they look to wrest back momentum in the series. Ahead of tomorrow’s opening day, Mark Ramprakash writes that the performances of England’s young spinners have changed his mind about the team’s ability to cope with the loss of Jack Leach.
The front pages
The Guardian’s splash headline this morning is “Labour in turmoil as party ditches second candidate over Israel views”. The Daily Telegraph has “Labour faces fresh crisis over anti-Israel remarks”. “Labour in crisis after a second suspension” says the Times and the i puts it quite well: “Starmer fights to limit damage after second candidate rants about Israel”. “What on earth is Britain coming to?” asks the Daily Express, as it reports that Tory MP Tobias Ellwood’s home was besieged by a “‘bullying’ pro-Palestinian mob” while police stood back.
The Sussexes have done a website again, and the Metro says it is “A click in the teeth for Charles”. The Daily Mail also leads with the “Row over Harry’s ‘Royal’ website rebrand” saying it breaches a deal with the late Queen Elizabeth. “Radio wonder” – the Sun joins other papers in mourning Steve Wright, radio DJ, who has died aged 69. The Daily Mirror reports on the trail of Piran Ditta Khan over the “PC Sharon murder” that allegedly pinpoints him as “The gang ‘organiser’”. PC Sharon Beshenivsky was shot dead responding to an armed hold-up in 2005.
Today in Focus
What on earth is going on in the Rochdale byelection?
An antisemitism row has led to Labour withdrawing its support for its candidate; a disgraced former Labour MP is running for Reform – and a political troublemaker is back. Helen Pidd reports on the chaos
Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In December, the French government launched an electric car leasing scheme designed to help low income households cut their carbon emissions. Twenty-five-thousand electric cars, built in Europe, were to be offered to lease from €100 (£85) a month. The three-year leasing contract could be renewed once with the option to buy the vehicle.
The French government was pleased with the proposal but did not anticipate its popularity: by the end of January it had received more than 90,000 applications and has had to suspend the scheme to keep up with demand. Ministers are now encouraging manufacturers to increase production of electric vehicles in France and have promised to relaunch the scheme next year. They are also increasing the offering. “It [the scheme] is a victim of its success. It all happened quicker than we thought. We’ll perhaps slow down a bit to give the French manufacturers some time and then, accelerate, accelerate, accelerate,” the industry and energy minister, Roland Lescure, said.
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