The increasing speed of sea level rise hardly seems to register with policymakers in Britain – even though with the UK weather getting more violent, destructive storm surges are increasingly likely. The future looks bleak for properties on fast-eroding cliffs and large areas of rich agricultural land on the east coast, already at or even below sea level.
The evidence that things are rapidly getting worse is clear. Sea levels have risen 24cm (9in) since 1880 but the rise has accelerated from an average of 1.4mm a year in the 20th century to 3.6mm annually by 2015. Previous conservative estimates of sea level rise of 60cm by the end of this century now look very optimistic and on current emission levels will be 2.2 metres by 2100 and 3.9 metres 50 years after that.
With a large percentage of the British population living on the coast or on estuaries and subject to storm surges, it is remarkable that mortgage companies and governments continue to act as if coastlines were fixed. Perhaps, as with the recent river flooding in many parts of the country, it will take another disaster on the scale of the 1953 east coast floods before policymakers catch up with reality and accept that Britain’s coastlines are about to change their shape.
