WASHINGTON — Over the next month, President Joe Biden will try to get his stalled policy agenda moving again, prevent a harmful government shutdown and raise the nation’s debt ceiling to avoid economic catastrophe.
It’s a tumultuous stretch that could define — and possibly derail — his presidency.
Biden, who was already grappling with the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and rising wave of coronavirus infections, is now plunging headfirst into a multitude of thorny challenges on Capitol Hill, testing his administration at a time when his approval rating has already hit new lows in recent polls.
“Every president goes through rocky times,” said Julián Castro, a former Democratic presidential candidate. “And it’s how they handle those rocky times that defines whether they move up in esteem and accomplishment, or they fall victim to whatever political maelstrom they get caught up in.
“That’s the question mark right now, now that he’s hit these rocky times,” added Castro, who also was the secretary for Housing and Urban Development in the Obama administration. “Which direction is it going to go?”
Republicans in Congress plan to vote next month against raising the debt ceiling, which would cause the U.S. to default on its already-appropriated financial obligations, unless Biden can ensure full cohesion among his fellow Democrats.
Meanwhile, parts of the Democrats’ progressive and centrist factions have engaged in a running argument over the two bills that constitute Biden’s agenda — a proposed $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill and $3.5 trillion spending package focused on social programs — that threatens to sink both measures.
And if Biden’s party can’t coalesce around a stopgap measure before federal funding expires on Sept. 30, he will face a government shutdown. It’s a scenario that would be politically embarrassing when Democrats control both chambers of Congress, requiring reduced services from federal agencies and delays in pay for federal workers.
Even the White House acknowledged that Biden faces an ever-growing list of challenges, both in Washington and abroad.
“We’re in the middle of navigating and weathering storms and dealing with crises,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Thursday. “That’s what a president should do. That’s what an administration should do. We’re not going to shy away from that.”
POLLING SLIDE
Biden’s political foes have seized on the convergence of crises as a theme in Senate floor speeches and social media attacks at a time when the president looks increasingly vulnerable.
“This looming government shutdown is just another crisis created by this administration. They’ve created a crisis at our southern border, in Afghanistan, with the labor shortage, and now in the pocket books of America,” Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., one of eight senators who voted to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory, said on the Senate floor Wednesday.
A new Gallup poll showed that just 43% of Americans approved of Biden’s job performance, his lowest number in the survey since taking office and a 13-point drop since June.
Biden has experienced a broad-based drop in support among varying demographic groups and even members of his own party. A recent Pew Research Center survey found that his support had dropped from 85% in July to 67% in mid-September among Black voters, for instance, and from 92% to 83% among Democrats.
The polling dropoff comes before the potentially dire consequences of failing to raise the debt limit.
Republicans readily admit that a failure to raise the debt ceiling would be financially calamitous, but they’re not seeking to use the threat of default to obtain policy concessions as they did under former President Barack Obama.
Instead, Republican lawmakers are open that their goal is to punish Biden’s party for circumventing them on spending bills earlier this year.
“The Democrats have the House, the White House and the Senate. They can do this on their own. If they don’t raise the debt ceiling, they’re making this choice by themselves,” said Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., compared possible default to playing “Russian roulette with our economy,” but he denied that Republicans would be responsible if that happens.
“The facts are indisputable. This is a totally Democratic government. They have an obligation to raise the debt ceiling,” McConnell said.
Psaki slammed Republicans’ brinkmanship on the issue, noting that they are refusing to vote for something they agree needs to happen.
“So what are we doing here exactly? They are playing with the faith and credit of the United States’ Treasury. This is not a game to the president. This is our economy,” Psaki said.
DEMOCRATIC DIVIDE
A protracted standoff on the debt ceiling will create hurdles for the rest of Biden’s agenda during a period where Democrats are deeply divided on government spending.
The party’s narrow majorities in the House and Senate leave little room for error heading into October as Biden also looks to prevent a government shutdown and regain momentum for his infrastructure and budget plans.
The converging series of challenges will test Biden’s ability to strike compromises in a Senate that has grown significantly more polarized since he left the chamber in 2009. As a presidential candidate, Biden often argued that his 36 years in the Senate provided him the legislative know-how to deliver major policy victories.
“I know a lot of people were open for his experience — all those years in the Senate — to be meaningful on the big negotiations like this,” said freshman Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif.
Biden met separately Wednesday with groups of moderate and progressive Democrats in Congress to discuss a path forward on his economic agenda. Psaki promised Thursday that the president will continue to “have his sleeves rolled up.”
To some veteran Democrats, Biden’s ability to drag his legislative agenda across the finish line remains the most important question for his administration, as long as he can also avoid breaching the debt ceiling.
Even if the president has been hurt politically by the events of the last month, they say, he and his party can recover if they have accomplishments to show voters during next year’s midterm elections.
“If he can get results, he’ll be fine. Democrats will be fine,” said Mo Elleithee, a former Democratic strategist who is now executive director of Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service. “If they can’t get results, then it’s going to be a more steep climb for them to make their political case.”
Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, who attended one of the meetings with the White House, said he’s optimistic Democrats will be able to avert the crises on the horizon and pass Biden’s agenda after negotiations.
“I just think that if the expectation is that they’re going to pass on Monday, that’s not realistic,” Schatz said. “If the expectation is that they’re going to pass this fall, I’m extremely confident in that.”
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(Sacramento Bee reporter Gillian Brassil contributed.)
