The mayor of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city, has extended the region’s state of emergency declared on 27 January, with further extreme rainfall expected. The country has been hit by a catastrophically wet January, with particularly intense flooding around the city.
Tropical cyclone Gabrielle, currently out in the Coral Sea off the north-east coast of Australia, is heading straight towards the North Island of New Zealand over the coming days. Gabrielle is tracking south-eastwards with winds gusting to 127mph, making it a category 3 cyclone.
Despite the storm mostly staying out in open water during its most intense period, through the weekend Gabrielle will transition into an extratropical cyclone as it pushes south-eastwards before barrelling into New Zealand. The centre of the cyclone is expected to pass over Norfolk Island on Saturday evening.
Gabrielle is forecast to bring further extreme heavy rain across northern and western parts of the North Island, and by midweek cumulative rainfall totals are expected to hit 200mm-300mm (8in-12in).
These rainfall totals would be damaging as a standalone event, but with soils already waterlogged after January’s extreme rainfall, there is a risk of more flooding, landslides and damage to vital infrastructure. The remnant low from Gabrielle will also bring strong winds.
This is not the only tropical cyclone currently affecting the Oceania region. There are currently two different tropical storm systems in the Indian Ocean. Off the north-west coast of Australia, tropical cyclone Freddyreached winds of 110mph on 7 February, a category 3 strength, and despite weakening for a time is forecast to return to category 3. However, Freddy will continue to track westwards and remain out in open ocean through the remainder of its lifetime.
Similarly, tropical storm Dingani has also been meandering through the Indian Ocean and is tracking westwards. Dingani is expected to intensify into at least a category 1 cyclone this weekend, and perhaps intensify further, although there is some uncertainty over this.
