The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.81%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.95%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.97%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH25) are down -0.84%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH25) are down -1.15%.
Stock indexes today are under pressure due to some weaker-than-expected corporate earnings reports. FedEx, considered an economic barometer, is down more than -10% as it cut its profit outlook, citing cost pressures and weaker demand. Nike is down over 7%, blaming tariffs and geopolitics for its earnings woes. Also, Micron Technology is down more than -7% to lead chip stocks lower after forecasting Q3 adjusted gross margin below consensus. The downbeat earnings results add to concerns over the global economic outlook ahead of President Trump's April 2 deadline for a series of broad reciprocal tariffs.
New York Fed President Williams said, "The current modestly restrictive stance of the Fed's monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still running somewhat above our 2% goal."
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee signaled he favors steady Fed policy when he said there's a lot of strength in the hard economic data and the Fed needs to be a steady hand and take the long view.
Market volatility may increase, and volume could be higher than normal today due to the expiration of nearly $4.5 trillion of March options and futures contracts tied to stocks, indexes, and exchange-traded funds in an event known as "triple-witching." The event has caused sudden price movements as contracts disappear and traders roll over existing positions.
Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East are negative for stocks. Israel on Tuesday launched a series of airstrikes across Gaza, ending a two-month ceasefire with Hamas, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to act "with increasing military strength" to free hostages and disarm Hamas. Also, the US continues to launch strikes on Yemen's Houthi rebels. US Defense Secretary Hegseth said strikes would be "unrelenting" until the group stops attacking vessels in the Red Sea. The Houthi rebels said they would respond by attacking US vessels in the Red Sea.
Stocks have been under pressure over the past two weeks due to fears that US tariffs will weaken economic growth and corporate earnings. On March 4, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and doubled the tariff on Chinese goods to 20% from 10%. On Sunday, Mr. Trump reiterated that he would impose reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on foreign nations on April 2.
The markets are discounting the chances at 21% for a -25 bp rate cut after the May 6-7 FOMC meeting.
Overseas stock markets today are lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.89%. China's Shanghai Composite Index fell to a 1-week low and closed down -1.29%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.20%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) today are up +5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.9 bp to 4.218%. June T-notes today are moderately higher, as weakness in stocks boosts safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, the strength of 10-year German bunds today is providing carryover support to T-notes. Gains in T-notes were limited after New York Fed President Williams and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee signaled their support for steady Fed policy.
European bond yields today are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.7 bp to 2.753%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +1.1 bp at 4.656%.
Swaps are discounting the chances at 59% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the April 17 policy meeting.
US Stock Movers
FedEx (FDX) closed down more than -11% to lead losers in the S&P 500 as it cut its full-year earnings guidance for the third consecutive quarter, citing inflation and demand concerns. The company cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $18.00-$18.60 from a previous estimate of $19.00-$20.00, weaker than the consensus of $18.95.
Nike (NKE) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after the CFO said it sees digital traffic down double digits in fiscal 2026, and its inventory remains elevated across categories, citing tariffs on products from China and Mexico.
Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and chip stocks lower after forecasting Q3 adjusted gross margin of 35.5% to 37.5%, the midpoint below the consensus of 37.4%. Also, KLA Corp (KLAC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), GlobalFoundries (GFS), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Lam Research (LRCX), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are down more than -2%.
Economic concerns are weighing on travel stocks. Marriott International (MAR) is down more than -5%, and Carnival (CCL) is down more than -4%. Also, Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) and Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) are down more than -3%. In addition, Delta Air Lines (DAL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), United Airline Holdings (UAL), and Booking Holdings (BKNG) are down more than -2%.
Lennar Corp (LEN) is down more than -4% after reporting Q1 home sales gross margins of 18.7% versus 21.8% y/y. It also forecasts Q2 new orders of 22,500 to 23,500, weaker than the consensus of 23,800.
Valmont Industries (VMI) is down more than -7% after William Blair & Co. downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is up more than +10% after winning expanded approval for its heart drug, Amvuttra, to treat transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy.
Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after CEO Musk assured employees to weather the storm and hang on to their stock after its recent 50% plunge.
Defensive food and beverage producers are moving higher today with weakness in the broader market. Hershey Co (HSY) is up more than +1%. Also, Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) is up +0.86%, Campbell's Company (CPB) is up +0.74%, General Mills (GIS) is up +0.73%, Kraft Heinz (KHC) is up +0.72%, and J M Smucker (SJM) is up +0.70%.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up more than +1% after Bloomberg reported that the White House is poised to announce today the winner of its contest to build the next-generation fighter jet.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up more than +1% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to neutral from underweight.
Earnings Reports (3/21/2025)
Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc (ALDX), American Realty Investors Inc (ARL), Cabaletta Bio Inc (CABA), Carnival Corp (CCL), Gencor Industries Inc (GENC), Humacyte Inc (HUMA), Nkarta Inc (NKTX), Savara Inc (SVRA), Transcontinental Realty Invest (TCI).
