The Conservatives risk being seen once again as the “nasty party” by trying to win votes with a divisive attack on human rights, senior party figures have warned.
Rishi Sunak is under increasing pressure from his party this weekend over his pledge to stop the boats crossing the Channel. It follows another week that ended in Channel deaths after the capsizing of a boat, while the total number of people making the dangerous crossing since 2018 rose above the 100,000 mark.
Cabinet ministers are now said to be among those expecting the party to back quitting the European convention on human rights (ECHR) as part of its next election manifesto, should their plan to deport migrants to Rwanda be blocked in court.
Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, said the government would do “whatever is necessary” to force its plans through.
However, the increasingly hostile rhetoric from the right has led to growing alarm on the party’s moderate wing. Its MPs warn that any threat to leave the ECHR will put off more voters in the “blue wall” seats in the south-east, where support is already under threat.
David Lidington, the former justice secretary and de facto deputy prime minister under Theresa May, said the talk risked damaging Britain’s global standing, aiding its international enemies and causing electoral damage.
“In raw political terms, I think they are ignoring the risk that a lot of people who traditionally have voted Conservative would find such a move very offensive,” he said. “They will want to see a Conservative party that sticks by treaties and which is seen as on the side of human rights at a time when human rights are under attack from our genuine ideological foes around the world.
“There will be a subsection of the electorate who will like this and want a hard line, however rational or irrational that policy is. But I think that they will be at least matched and probably exceeded by the number of people in seats, particularly suburban seats and home counties seats, who will be at best unimpressed and at worse seriously repelled by this kind of rhetoric and such a policy …
“The risk of us being tarnished then as the nasty party again, I think, becomes very real.”
Alistair Burt, the former Tory foreign minister, said: “It’s difficult to see where the advantage lies, apart from those who believe that the more often you say something, and the more disagreeable you are to others, that somehow the more successful you appear to be. I’m not sure that argument holds political water.
“There have been so many good Conservative voices, including that of the prime minister and the foreign secretary, saying that this is not something they support. I think that’s the right answer and I think that they’ve looked at the risk to the brand in that way.
“I think it’s a real one. It would be quite firmly attacked by opponents and by a very wide spread of society. Then it would be mercilessly attacked on whether it would actually be effective.”
Tory supporters of staying inside the ECHR are taking comfort from the fact that just three months ago, Sunak endorsed the convention at a meeting of European leaders. There are also legal implications for the Good Friday agreement and the the Brexit deal with the EU.
While No 10 sources said they believed their migration plans could be achieved inside the ECHR, the prime minister is expected to come under renewed pressure to back leaving the European court of human rights when MPs return to the Commons next month.
John Howell, the Tory MP nominated as the UK’s candidate to become the Council of Europe’s human rights commissioner, said there had “never been a more important time to have a good grouping of human rights”.
“It is a completely different thing if you’re part of the convention and then you pull out,” he said. “That sends a very bad signal to the rest of the world and it makes it very, very easy for people to compare us with [Vladimir] Putin and [Belarus’s president, Alexander] Lukashenko. In my conversations with Conservative MPs, I do not think that in this parliament, there would be a majority for that.”
The news comes with other senior moderate Tories signalling they will battle to stop the party veering further to the right on culture war issues, or using green policies as a dividing line with Labour.
In an interview with the Observer, Andy Street, the West Midlands mayor and the most senior Tory outside London, said he and others needed to show their brand of Conservatism would be electorally successful.
“It’s my job as a moderate Conservative, who believes in inclusivity, believes in the whole notion of everyone in society succeeding together, and particularly believes in the green agenda - it’s my responsibility to stand up and demonstrate that our way of doing it can win through for the party,” he said. “I am convinced by the ballot results in the West Midlands that there is a real sweet spot of being pro-growth, pro-net zero.
“There are lots of people in parliament who share my [view]. The lobby should not convince itself that our wing of the party is necessarily quiet. It’s actually very influential on this government.”
A No 10 source said: “We’ve always said that there’s no overnight fix to this [small boat crossings] challenge. Our new stop the boats bill will play an important part in our effort to break the cycle, end exploitation by gangs and prevent further loss of life.
“We’re making progress but we’re not complacent. That’s why it’s so important that we change the law to make sure people know if they come here illegally they will be swiftly detained and removed.”
