Rishi Sunak has found out the hard way what it is like to become embroiled in the cycle of the Brexit forever wars. Despite desperate attempts to keep his party in line, a row that plagued his predecessors is at risk of erupting again over a reworking of the Northern Ireland protocol which he hopes to announce next week.
The wariness of some in government was betrayed by the foreign secretary, James Cleverly, who told a group of journalists at the start of the week – when momentum towards getting a deal on the protocol appeared to be stalling – that it would be announced at some point between “now and the end of time”.
For nearly a fortnight, insiders say, No 10 has been turned into a “bunker”. The prime minister used a break in the parliamentary calendar while MPs were away on recess – and attention was focused on Scotland’s political future – to prepare for the biggest challenge of his premiership yet.
Most of Britain’s negotiating team in Brussels had been brought home last week, and John Bew, the top foreign affairs adviser in Downing Street, was dispatched to tee up talks with the Democratic Unionist party.
Sunak was stuck in a catch-22, however. The prime minister did not want to announce any deal had been reached until he was certain that what had been agreed with Brussels would not be torpedoed back home. But the DUP and hardline Brexiters in the European Research Group of Tory backbenchers were refusing to give their blessing until the final text was nailed down.
“We’re all ready,” a source close to the negotiations sighed as the deadlock set in over the weekend.
Already, MPs who serve as ministerial aides are said to be on resignation watch. “If it’s an utter betrayal, if it’s no good, then I can see myself quitting,” said one parliamentary private secretary. “I know at least two others who share my sentiment.”
Given fears of a backlash, the hoped-for timetable of an announcement last Monday and a vote in parliament on Tuesday slipped. When it became clear that momentum was draining away, Keir Starmer sought to tactically apply pressure.
All of the Labour leader’s six questions to the prime minister on Wednesday were on Brexit and Northern Ireland, each designed to deepen the unease on the government’s green benches. Will parliament get a vote on any deal? Will Boris Johnson and Liz Truss’s bill overriding the protocol be scrapped? Will the European court of justice have any continued role?
“It was rope-a-dope,” winked a Labour source. “We knew the headbangers would take the bait, so Keir just wound them up a bit and then used the howls of indignation back against them.”
The source, with a nod to the prime minister’s aim to increase numeracy in schools, said Sunak’s weakness was “ironically, partly about maths”. “He doesn’t have the numbers to control his party – and he’s doing none of the work that we have done to fix his party,” they asaid. “Until he does, he will always put his party above the country.”
The benefits of removing checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and the political prize of re-establishing power sharing at Stormont are obvious. But a successful revamping of Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit arrangements would also make a virtue of what some critics see as the prime minister’s weakness: his detail-heavy managerialism.
One government source said they hoped Sunak’s ability to focus on the intricacies of complex negotiations and his pragmatism could prove the difference, providing the prime minister with a personal reset as well as a political triumph.
He has been deeply involved in the talks and efforts to sell a deal, hosting a group of MPs associated with the Conservative union research unit for breakfast in No 10. There was a Tuesday evening call between Sunak and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, suggesting knottier issues that can only be untangled at a political level had been passed up the chain of command.
Northern Ireland business leaders were briefed personally by Sunak on the state of talks in a conference call on Thursday, but were kept in a holding pattern. One Whitehall source said it was in part to “give the impression of being busy”, while those on the call said his engagement was encouraging and impressive but “the content wasn’t necessarily new”.
Despite the fervour gripping some parts of the Conservative party, others seem happy to avoid rows about the leaked details of a deal, or whether Sunak will drop the protocol bill. Only about 20 MPs turned up to hear Cleverly address the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs and field their questions.
“My colleagues should probably read and understand the deal we did, and that they voted for, before commenting on how awful it is,” said one who is keeping their counsel.
There remains a debate in No 10 about whether to risk deepening divisions by holding a vote. Sunak promised parliament would be able to “express its view”.
A senior Tory believed it would be “near impossible” for the government to rely on Labour votes. “We would be crucified,” the adviser said. “That’s not in the PM’s mind at all. It gets us nowhere.”
Downing Street sources have emphasised that their goal is not necessarily to win firm backing from the DUP, but for the party to at least not openly denounce it. That may secure enough support in the Conservative party, they believe.
Sunak initially held off pushing ahead with the deal, but appears on the brink of trying to face down its prospective critics. “You can’t wait for ever for these people, they’ll never be 100% onboard,” said a source close to him.
It is no coincidence that the drive to announce a deal coincided with ministers being given new instructions to open talks with trade unions on public sector pay.
A senior official admitted there was now a consensus that little could be achieved without addressing some fundamental issues that were “gumming up” the process of government – relations with Europe and preparations for industrial action being two key black holes for resources.
“The PM wants to get involved in these difficult problems,” they said. “This is where his personality is a real asset. He works incredibly hard to absorb the detail. If we can demonstrate he is a prime minister who is fixing seemingly intractable problems, we begin to buy ourselves some breathing space to talk about bigger ambitions.”
