Public blustering aside, NSW Liberals are privately worried a group of independent candidates will paint northern Sydney teal at the March state elections.
Several Liberal sources who spoke to Crikey on condition of anonymity said the party was taking too long to preselect candidates — fearing protracted infighting would lead to a repeat of the federal fiasco where the Coalition didn’t put candidates into winnable seats until it was too late.
“It’s a real problem if we don’t have candidates in the field — we need to be out there campaigning,” one Liberal said. “What we need is time, and the teals will be very happy that we’re running out of time.”
NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet had told party faithful he wanted preselections done by October 1, a deadline that has come and gone. Liberal sources also pointed to the fact that the composition of the party’s NSW state executive, which has a say in preselections, was voted on in August but not announced until this week.
“We have a club within the Liberal Party that is more interested in who doesn’t get to be in Parliament than who does,” one of them said. “We’re not going to get any of them in if they keep this up.”
Perrottet told reporters earlier in the week that he believes the state government’s record on the environment, embracing the “economic opportunities” of renewable energy rather than waging “climate wars”, would shield them from teal attacks.
“I’m less concerned — the reason we saw the rise of the teals in the federal election campaign wasn’t based on a preferential ticket situation, it was based on policy,” Perrottet said.
“And when it comes to integrity, when it comes to women, when it comes to climate, on those key issues, the NSW government leads the way.”
Perrottet repeated the message to business owners on Wednesday during a private luncheon in state Parliament, according to people in the room.
“The premier said he reckons they’re not going to be much of a threat,” a source said.
But the optimistic message hasn’t necessarily convinced everyone.
“Of course they’re dangerous,” one Liberal said. “It’s considered very cool to vote for them. They’re seen as neutral and not the typical candidates.”
Another Liberal put it blunter: “The teals are a threat not because of climate change, but because of how bad the Liberal Party has become.”
“Liberal voters don’t want Labor, so they’ll vote teal because it’s a safe way to protest,” the person continued.
However, another Liberal said independent candidates wouldn’t pose a bigger challenge than any other opposition candidates.
“Every single campaign is concerned about its opposition,” the person said.
They also pointed out Sydney independents haven’t gotten very far in selecting candidates either.
In the past federal election, several NSW seats previously considered safely Liberal fell to independents, including North Sydney and Mackellar, north of Sydney Harbour, and Wentworth, in the city’s east.
Independents hoping for a state version of the May bloodbath have their eyes on a number of northern Sydney seats, including ones where high-profile Liberal MPs have said they won’t run again.
They include NSW Infrastructure Minister and Pittwater MP Rob Stokes, NSW Legislative Assembly speaker and Davidson MP Jonathan O’Dea, and NSW Customer Service Minister and Ryde MP Victor Dominello.
In Pittwater, a community group is actively searching for an independent candidate to stand for the seat.
“The federal election showed a lot of people in the area were happy to vote for an independent, and we see no reason why it would be different in a state election,” independent Pittwater campaign spokeswoman Rebecca Clarke said.
In another seat where the sitting Liberal MP is leaving — the affluent Vaucluse, represented by former NSW attorney-general Gabrielle Upton — an independent challenger, Karen Freyer, has already launched her campaign.
“From the lack of community input into development decisions and the real need for a second public high school in Vaucluse, to protecting our beaches and open spaces and changing the ‘jobs for mates’ culture in government, I want to represent our interests — not a political party line,” Freyer said.
Other seats being eyed by independents include Willoughby, North Sydney, Lane Cove, Wakehurst and Manly.
Denise Shrivell, co-director of the political group North Sydney’s Independent, which is on an active hunt for teal candidates to run in the seats of North Shore, Lane Cove and Willoughby, said the local community had “huge concerns” about the government’s record on climate change.
“They’re certainly making a lot of noise about their actions to address climate change and renewables, but on the other hand they’re still opening new fossil fuel projects, clearing land and destroying habitats,” she said.
“It’s not good enough.”
Teal campaigners believe community members will want to send the government a message on other issues as well, including integrity and local input into planning decisions.
However, both teals and Liberals agree independent challengers will have a tougher time than they did federally, because of spending caps in state campaigns and the state’s system of optional preferential voting.
That system means that voters aren’t required to number every square on the ballot, which makes it harder for candidates to win if they don’t lead on first preferences.
