Day four of the 2023 Tour de France concluded with a stopover in the Pyrenean gateway city of Pau and, while it may traditionally be a rest day host, this year the town will instead herald the arrival of the first mountain stages of the race.
The highest peak on Wednesday is at 1,540 metres above sea level and with a flat finish in Laruns, stage 5 of the Tour is far from the queen stage this July. However, after several days of GC attacks to kick things off in the hilly stages of the Basque Country, it looks likely that we'll see more action among the top favourites on the 8.6% slopes of the Col de Marie Blanque.
The 162.7km stage is the first of a Pyrenean double-header, with Thursday's stage 6 bringing a summit finish at Cauterets along with the high-mountain test of the Col du Tourmalet. If nothing else is guaranteed in the coming days, then second-placed Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) is primed to go on the attack, at least, having already gained 11 bonus seconds on his maillot jaune rival Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) through the opening four stages.
"We'll attack in the Pyrenees. The Tour de France is long, but we'll be a little safer if we can gain seconds here and there," Pogačar said earlier this week.
What else to expect on the first of the two stages is somewhat up in the air, with his own teammate Adam Yates in the race lead and various members of UAE Team Emirates giving conflicting stories as to whether the duo are co-leaders or not.
Vingegaard will, as he has done so far, be watching Pogačar like a hawk. Jumbo-Visma directeur sportif Merijn Zeeman told Cyclingnews on Tuesday that the team has to stay ready day after day in case the Slovenian two-time winner makes a move.
"He tries to attack everywhere, eh?" he said ahead of the sprint stage 4 to Nogaro. "We have to be ready for that always because he's an attractive bike racer. He goes for it and it means that we as a team have to always be ready.
"We'll try to avoid him taking too many bonus seconds, of course," he added, echoing the point that the Dutch squad have been happy to limit the damage in that regard so far.
Beyond the 'big two' and the Yates brothers (Simon is also riding high in third overall level with Pogačar) there is already something of a sense that the battle for the rest – both in the Pyrenees and through the remainder of the Tour – is for third place.
Jayco-AlUla directeur sportif Mat Hayman told Cyclingnews that the team's tactic with Simon is to keep a watching brief on the two main favourites and hopefully get away with them once the carnage begins.
He also warned against spending too much energy doing things like chasing bonus seconds, advice which Pogačar is unlikely to listen to.
"With those two guys being so strong and having such dominant teams, I think we're happy to sit back and just keep an eye on how it goes," Hayman said. "Hopefully Simon is climbing with them on one or two days, and he can distance the other guys.
"At the moment it's a bit of a two-man race. I think we'll keep trucking along as we are – we're in a good position. There's been quite a bit of talk about the third spot on the podium but for the next two weeks, we'll have to see how Simon keeps going. They're hard stages, so we'll know a lot more."
Wednesday's stage 5 might end with an 11km descent and then 8km of false flat into Laruns – maybe not ideal for GC attacks – but riders still see various opportunities to make headway along the route.
After stage 4 concluded, Ineos Grenadiers' Tom Pidcock spoke about the possibilities of attacking the descent of the Tourmalet (15.2km at 7.2%), the peak of which comes over 70km from the line on stage 6. Meanwhile, self-professed breakaway candidate Jack Haig of Bahrain Victorious noted that the bonus seconds up for grabs on the final climb of the Col de Marie Blanque (7.7km at 8.6%) on stage 5 could host another Pogačar-Vingegaard battle at the expense of said break.
"There are opportunities in everything if you look at it in a certain way," Pidcock, who lies 43 seconds off the lead, said. "There's the task of getting over the climb with the front guys first and then we can look at the descent a bit. Tomorrow is certainly an opportunity."
Others will also be looking to make up time if the chance arises. Teammate Egan Bernal is lying equal on time with Pidcock, while Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) and Ben O'Connor (AG2R Citroën Team) are a further minute back. A cluster of riders, including Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), and Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe), lie at the edge of the top, 22 seconds down on Yates.
"I don't think the gaps will be super big, but I think there will be some gaps for sure," Hindley said at the start of stage 4. "Maybe on stage 5 – it's a really hard climb before the finish there. Maybe it regroups a bit, though. On stage 6 I think the final climb is really tough, actually a lot tougher than it says on paper.
"The Marie Blanque is really solid, really steep, and it stays consistently steep for a long time. Then you've got this technical downhill and after that, there's quite a big road and some flat before the finish. I could see it being controlled, but it's hard to say actually."
Little is set in stone before the Tour de France hits the mountains for the first time.
