How to respond to the avalanche of record-breaking extreme weather and temperatures terrorising the planet? For many scientists it is a moment of genuine despair, but also a time to resist climate doomism.
For British tourists still flying to Greece while it is on fire, and a few holdout news organisations, the answer seems to be to look away or deflect. We shouldn’t join them. Equally, as Michael Mann and Susan Joy Hassol have argued, there is no need to inflate the magnitude of what is happening. The reality is confronting enough.
Here’s some of what we know. Mediterranean Europe and northern Africa are burning. Wildfires in at least nine countries, particularly Greece, Algeria and Italy, are killing people and wrecking lives, livelihoods and nature. They follow historic blazes in Canada a few weeks ago.
There have been bad fires before, of course, but these have been exacerbated by what is almost certainly the hottest month on record due to the extreme northern summer. Across the globe, the average temperature for most days in July has been hotter than any previous day that we know of. The list of records broken is itself unprecedented. A heat dome in the US south-west has pushed the temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, beyond 43C for 27 days straight. Beijing usually has 11 days a year hotter than 35C, but has already had 27 scorchers. If these trends continue this may be the hottest year on record.
That seems particularly likely for sea temperatures, where records have already been smashed. Zeke Hausfather, a US-based climate scientist and writer, calculated that the heat in the northern Atlantic Ocean has now pushed beyond what climate models predicted. It suggests something extraordinary is happening in that part of the world. Similarly, the amount of sea ice around Antarctica continues to be far below previous record lows.
But Hausfather found for the planet as a whole – both on the land and sea surface – temperatures were within what most climate models projected, just at the hotter end of it. Put another way: this is not actually worse than we expected. It is the brutal reality of what scientists told us would happen.
A quick study published this week by the World Weather Attribution group suggests the heatwaves over Europe, the US and China would have been virtually impossible without human interference – that is, our burning of fossil fuels. The researchers found the run of extreme heat in China had been made 50 times more likely by the carbon pollution we have collectively pumped out.
This is happening when the world is, on average, about 1.2C hotter than pre-industrial times. If the temperature rise hits 2C we can expect these brutal heat waves every two-to-five years.
No, this does not mean better beach days for those of us who live at higher latitudes. Even though they receive less immediate attention, heat waves kill more people than fires, floods and cyclones. A study found extreme heat killed more than 61,000 in Europe alone last year. Imagine the headlines if we knew about that in real time.
Caveats are everywhere in science, and we need some here. Climate systems are complex, and a number of factors could be helping inflate current temperatures. An obvious one is that, according to the World Meteorological Organization, the world has moved into an El Niño event, which generally makes it hotter. The last El Niño in 2016 was, for now, the hottest year on record.
Hausfather says a couple of other factors, such as a phaseout of sulphur in shipping fuels and water vapour released during the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in the South Pacific last year, may also have played a role (sulphur masks underlying heating, water vapour increases it).
Underneath it all is a clear long-term warming trend that is driven by us. Human emissions are permanently adding the equivalent of an El Niño to the global system every five to 10 years.
Another study published this week gives a further insight into what this might mean. It suggests the climate system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could shut down faster than previously thought – by about 2050, or possibly as soon as this decade – if emissions are not cut soon.
Some scientists have responded cautiously about the methods used and pointed out it is just one study. However, many agreed with the general point, that the risk of an earlier ocean circulation breakdown has increased, with potentially disastrous and rapid ramifications for temperatures, rainfall and sea level rise. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation last collapsed 12,000 years ago.
A logical response to all this would be to acknowledge it is an unfolding emergency, and act accordingly. The good news from scientists is that rapid action can still make a significant difference and limit future damage.
It would mean ruling a line under new fossil fuel developments where there are alternatives – that is, virtually all of them – and taking a war-footing approach that genuinely prioritised accelerating the transition that every major scientific body and government agrees is necessary.
It wouldn’t mean pretending the gas industry is a climate solution, or that nuclear energy is a serious climate solution in Australia given the costs, timescales and social licence challenges. Nor is carbon capture and storage on track to be more than a niche technology, and paying for carbon offsets can’t justify fossil fuel use.
It would mean leaders acting as though they could persuade the public of what’s required, rather than living in fear of how they might respond. Polls suggest a majority in many countries are open to action. Now’s our chance.
Alternatively, politicians could continue not delivering on the commitments made in Paris eight years ago and wait for another month as devastating as July 2023 before doing more. One thing we can say with confidence: it is likely to come around soon enough.
Adam Morton is Guardian Australia’s climate and environment editor
