A recent set of Washington Post-Schar School polls conducted in seven key states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - has revealed a close split among likely voters in each state between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the race for the presidency.
The polls, which were carried out from September 30 to October 15, took a unique approach by not asking a traditional horserace question. Instead, they measured voters' likelihood of voting for each candidate separately.
Across all seven states, the percentage of likely voters indicating they will 'definitely' or 'probably' support Harris is neck and neck with those who express the same level of support for Trump, with the results falling within the margin of error for each state.
Comparing the current findings to a previous Post-Schar poll conducted in May in the swing states (excluding North Carolina), it appears that Trump's level of support has remained relatively stable. However, the data shows that the proportion of voters likely to support Harris now surpasses those who previously indicated they would back President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate.
The survey also highlights that approximately 21% of likely voters in swing states have not firmly committed to either Harris or Trump. Interestingly, this group of undecided voters tends to skew towards younger demographics or voters of color.
