Warren Gatland left as Wales head coach in 2019 with a reputation as the man who had tamed the impossible job, but the job appears to be biting back after his return.
The New Zealander could be forgiven for wondering if his call to take on a second stint as Welsh team boss was his wisest move.
Welsh rugby is in a mess, on and off the pitch.
Apart from that, everything is fine.
“Has it always been like this?” someone newish to proceedings asked on Saturday.
Certainly, Welsh rugby has rarely seemed more than a couple of weeks away from a crisis.
Turn back the clock to 1998 and even then the governing body were rowing with leading teams, back then over the union's insistence that clubs sign a 10-year loyalty agreement, Swansea and Cardiff left for a season of friendlies against English opposition and others were fearing for their futures. “Off the field, Welsh rugby is a complete shambles,” thundered that year’s edition of Rugby Annual for Wales. On it, Wales crashed 96-13 to South Africa. A complete shambles there, then, as well.
They sent for Graham Henry, then, a New Zealander who offered a sugar rush before the problems became overwhelming. “I hit the wall, people call it pressure, I just didn’t want to talk to people,” reflected Henry later. “I read books all day. Is that a sign?
“I resigned from Welsh rugby and got out of there."
Henry was a man who used to get up at 5am to study videos of the opposition. He had an encyclopaedic knowledge of the sport and was prepared to put in the hours. But he could see no way forward amid the structural problems and made a call to head for the door as the stress built.
Fast-forward a quarter of a century and another Kiwi is searching for answers. If he fails to find them, Welsh rugby being Welsh rugby, some will invariably wonder if it was worth the expense of the WRU dispensing with the services of Wayne Pivac, Stephen Jones and Gethin Jenkins and hiring replacements.
Such matters cost, and the professional game is not exactly awash with the folding stuff.
But let’s see if Gatland can turn the situation around. What’s gone wrong so far?
Where do you begin to start?
Wales’ attacking game misfires
Do they even have an attacking game? Just three tries in three games suggest it is a work in progress, if we are being charitable.
The irony was they played some superb attacking rugby for 55 minutes in the last game overseen by Wayne Pivac and Stephen Jones, with Jac Morgan busting tackles, Alun Wyn Jones everywhere around the field along with Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau, and Joe Hawkins quite looking the part outside Gareth Anscombe. They only lost after indiscipline and questionable substitutions late in the game.
But out went Pivac and Jones. Alex King now oversees the attack and it’s fair to say he hasn’t exactly got off to a flyer.
Wales look predictable and shy of players who can deceive opponents with guile and skill. They also lack power with their carrying game. And they struggle to convert chances. It's an undertatement to suggest he sight of Welsh players becoming isolated and getting turned over within metres of the opposition line would have frustrated Gatland.
It’s been rather desperate.
They have a Rolls Royce of a wing in Louis Rees-Zammit but the challenge is to bring him into play more often. Wales kicked a lot of ball away against England and were again hit by lineout issues.
From somewhere they need to find an attacking game.
Anyone with ideas on how to help, should contact Mr W. Gatland, C/O the WRU.
Selection inconsistency
Take a look at these figures: 9, 7, 7, 3, 5, 1, 6, 3, 3.
And these: 4, 4, 8, 1, 5, 8, 0, 6, 1, 6.
They are not the numbers on Gatland's National Lottery ticket but the changes made in selection per game in three years from 1988 to 1991.
Unsurprisingly, Wales lurched from bad to desperate, culminating in a 63-6 hammering at the hands of Australia.
They had the excuse back then that they had lost a generation of players to rugby league.
Now they are experimenting with an eye on the World Cup, with Gatland making six changes for the Scotland game and nine for the match with England.
He can justify such turbulence by saying he’s having a look at players, but it’s been hard to keep up with some of the picks: Gareth Thomas being left out of the matchday 23 completely for Scotland, then returning as a starter for England, with the same applying to Owen Williams and Alun Wyn Jones.
Nick Tompkins hadn’t seen a single minute of action before appearing off the bench and bringing some overdue spark to the Wales backs on Saturday. Many thought Rhys Webb might figure in the run-on side against the old enemy. Instead, he had to settle for being a travelling reserve.
And so it goes on. Gatland doesn’t need anyone to tell him about the importance of continuity in selection.
But it seems the assessment process he appears to be conducting will continue in the hope that it will achieve gain at the World Cup.
It looks chaotic. Time will tell if it’s been worthwhile.
Players who could come in
There are players off limits to Gatland right now.
Will Rowlands is one, and unless the WRU find a way he could be permanently off limits, with the lock two caps shy of the 25 he’ll need to continue as an exiled Wales player under the newly tweaked selection rules.
When his contract with Racing 92 starts is key. If it’s before Wales begin their summer friendlies then he may be ineligible for the World Cup.
That would be a major blow to Gatland because Rowlands, who is currently sidelined by injury, is a quality player.
There’s a chance two other locks, Jake Ball and Cory Hill, might also come back into the fold for the global tournament after the move from 60 caps on the exiles. They are 31, seasoned and theoretically in their prime as players. They would give Wales more depth in an area that needs bolstering.
Alun Wyn Jones had a solid game against England and Adam Beard remains in favour. With the young locks coming through, there’s the outline of a potential decent second-row pool there if the stocks are able to be topped up.
Dewi Lake will also add significantly to the forward mix when he returns from injury.
Ken Owens is captain and will presumably continue as a starter, but Lake is powerful as a carrier and immensely physical on both sides of the ball. To have him in the matchday 23 would be a huge plus for Gatland, for Lake is a player with almost limitless potential.
The coach will also be pleased to see Josh Navidi playing again, although when he’ll return from injury appears up in the air.
The Cardiff player is invariably first in the queue for unglamorous jobs, while Dan Lydiate, Johnny Williams and Gareth Anscombe are other options for the selectors. Wales successfully used Anscombe and Dan Biggar at fly-half in their 2019 Grand Slam campaign and Gatland won't have forgotten as much.
The problem is Anscombe has had such terrible problems with injuries since. Just maybe his luck will improve on his return from the shoulder injury that's kept him out for this Six Nations. That will be the hope.
Each of the above are good players. There again, players’ reputations tend to soar when they are out of the Wales set-up. Always have done, with those on the outside wanting easy answers.
Still, there is case for wondering if there’ll be a selection rethink on Nicky Smith, Ross Moriarty, Johnny McNicholl and Jarrod Evans. Might Keiran Williams yet get a chance to show his worth in midfield in this campaign?
Might Moriarty be piloted back into the set-up this summer? He is a player few opponents relish playing against, a Test animal who plays every game with attitude.
Wales were perceived to have lost the breakdown battle against England, with their clear-outs not as efficient as the visitors’ work in that area. Ball and Navidi are certainly capable of clearing out opponents quickly and ruthlessly?
It also needs to be said for the 100th time it was a questionable call to omit Smith from the squad for this tournament. Not only can he scrummage, he can also contest ball at the breakdown. When Wales beat Australia in 2018, Smith helped Justin Tipuric combat the threat of Michael Hooper and David Pocock.
Lots of things for Gatland to ponder as he seeks to come up with the answers.
What can be done to avoid Wooden Spoon?
The likelihood is Italy will start as favourites for the game in Rome a week on Saturday.
Why wouldn’t they? It’s not altogether clear Wales could beat a drum at present, and the Azzurri gave Ireland a hurry-up over the weekend.
Defeat would leave Wales on course for the kitchen utensil no-one wants to be left holding. Does Gatland use the game to continue looking at young players and hand out further opportunities, or does he field what he considers his very best side? What the degree of overlap is between those two scenarios is known only to the head coach.
If bright efforts off the bench are rewarded, Nick Tompkins will push hard for a place. Dan Biggar is also a candidate for an upgrade back to the starting line-up.
But there are so many areas that need to be shined up, whoever Wales pick it will be hard for them to take a great leap forward.
Maybe the best that can be hoped for is that Wales eke out a result. From a Welsh perspective, anything else would be a bonus.
Gatland's biggest challenge
“It’s one of the hottest jobs in the world. There is very little forgiveness.”
So said Chris Wyatt about the Wales coaching job. Gatland is in the thick of it.
The problems he faces are deep-rooted and concerning. He is, of course, a serial trophy winner as a coach.
But if he turns this situation around it will rank up there with anything he has achieved in rugby.
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