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Steffan Thomas

Warren Gatland's likely new Wales team as Biggar under threat, veteran handed lifeline and new boy ticks all boxes

Warren Gatland's sensational return to Wales has sent shockwaves throughout the game.

The New Zealander was hugely successful during his original 12-year stay in Wales and will undoubtedly have to make significant changes if he is to turn around the fortunes of a side who have won a mere three games out of 12 this year.

But how will he approach it? We take an in depth look at how Gatland's selections might differ from those of Wayne Pivac as he looks to get Wales in shape ahead of the Six Nations.

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Back three

This is arguably the strongest area in the Wales squad, one where they compare favourably to every other tier one nation. In all honesty it is unlikely Gatland will tinker too much with Pivac's first-choice back-three.

READ MORE: The things Warren Gatland has to sort immediately with tactics to be changed and contracts to be nailed down

Liam Williams will undoubtedly regain the number 15 jersey when he recovers from injury, while Josh Adams is nailed on for one of the wing spots. Gatland took some convincing on the merits of selecting Williams at full-back during his first spell in charge, often favouring him on the wing with the more reliable Leigh Halfpenny at 15.

The thinking was Williams was too unreliable for Gatland's liking, would sway off the game-plan, while also losing the ball too often. But towards the end of Gatland's first tenure as Wales coach Williams was an automatic pick in his starting XV, and given Halfpenny's age and recent injury woes, the Cardiff full-back will be his first choice.

Adams is everything Gatland wants in a wing, he's quick, a tremendous finisher, and is secure as houses defensively and under the high ball.

Gatland has worked with Louis Rees-Zammit on the Lions tour in 2021, but opted for the size of Duhan van der Merwe in his Test team. However, Rees-Zammit has developed into arguably the most prolific finisher in the Northern Hemisphere over the past couple of years and will surely be one of the first names on Gatland's team-sheet.

The new coach will also like the look of Rio Dyer and you'd expect him to select Alex Cuthbert in his wider squad.

Likely Gatland back-three - Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams. (Others Alex Cuthbert, Rio Dyer)

Centres

This is one area where you'd expect to see a significant shift in selection. Gatland sees the game in a very different way to Pivac, who wanted Wales to play an expansive game but didn't quite know how to get the best out of his players. Gatland will want Wales to simplify their attack with a more direct approach required.

With that, Saracens centre Nick Tompkins could be a casualty here. Pivac was a big fan of Tompkins but Gatland is likely to want more size in his backline. Whereas he may stay part of the wider squad, Tompkins could get overtaken by someone who suits the change in style.

George North will continue to play an integral part in midfield but who lines up at 12 is the question. Wales U20s star Joe Hawkins is likely to be the long-term answer with his size, ball carrying ability, and distribution skills ticking all the boxes for Gatland.

Owen Watkin is a reliable presence, so he will remain in the mix but one bolter could be Cardiff man Max Llewellyn. At over 16 stone Llewellyn could give Wales go forward and is the sort of raw talent Gatland has been prone to selecting in the past.

Likely Gatland centres - Joe Hawkins, George North. (Others Owen Watkin, Max Llewellyn, Nick Tompkins)

Half-backs

Many are expecting Gatland to stick with Dan Biggar as captain but it isn't as clear cut as it may seem. There is no doubt that Biggar will play an integral role in the build-up to the World Cup but cast your minds back to 2019 and it was Gareth Anscombe in the hot-seat.

During the 2019 Six Nations Grand Slam campaign Gatland started with Anscombe with his game management and kicking game suiting his tactical plan, but it was his distribution skills and peripheral vision which won him the nod. When he was cruelly ruled out of the 2019 World Cup with a knee injury, Gatland couldn't stress how much of a blow his loss was for the men in red.

Since then Biggar has taken his game to the next level and started all three Tests under Gatland on the 2021 Lions tour but his selection at 10 for Wales is not a foregone conclusion. One potential shock selection might be that of Rhys Webb who was out of favour with Pivac. Webb might be a bit long in the tooth at 33, but there isn't a great deal of depth in the number nine shirt, and Gatland will want more leadership from his half-backs.

Tomos Williams will certainly be in the matchday 23 having performed well under Gatland in 2019 while Kieran Hardy is not a bad player. But expect to see Webb back in the frame.

Likely Gatland half-backs - Rhys Webb, Gareth Anscombe. (Others Tomos Williams, Kieran Hardy, Dan Biggar, Sam Costelow)

Front-row

Every successful Gatland side has been built on a strong set-piece. One player who should benefit from the return of the former Chiefs coach is Nicky Smith. The Ospreys loosehead is the most destructive scrummager in Welsh rugby, and Pivac's reluctance to select him has been a real mystery.

Gatland was always a fan of Smith, and over the past three years he has taken his game to the next level. Rhys Carre, who was inexplicably left out of Pivac's autumn squad, will certainly come back into the mix. He's rough around the edges, but Wales lack carriers, with his size and explosiveness right up Gatland's street.

Tighthead is the weakest position in Wales so Gatland will stick with Tomas Francis and Dillon Lewis but he will also be keen to see Leon Brown get back to full fitness because he is another player with the size and ball carrying ability which was lacking in Pivac's squad.

Gatland will likely stick with Scarlets pair Ken Owens and Ryan Elias at hooker, but the Kiwi will be rubbing his hands at the prospect of working with Dewi Lake. Lake is everything Gatland wants in a tight-five forward. He's a powerful carrier, who is solid in the tight but his point of difference is his work at the breakdown. Under Gatland's watch Lake could develop into one of the best hookers in world rugby.

Likely Gatland front-row - Nicky Smith, Dewi Lake, Tomas Francis. (Others Rhys Carre, Wyn Jones, Ryan Elias, Ken Owens, Dillon Lewis, Leon Brown)

Lock

Gatland will surely do everything in his power to make sure Will Rowland's is available for the World Cup, the Dragons man having signed a contract to join French giants Racing 92 at the start of next season. Theoretically that rules him out of a place in Wales' squad for next year's tournament in France. Wales lack depth in the front-five so he will need to find a solution for Rowlands.

Gatland will stick with Adam Beard who performed well for him in 2019 while he is also the man to ensure Alun Wyn Jones is in peak condition by the time the World Cup kicks-off. Exeter Chiefs second-row Dafydd Jenkins is also the type of lock he will need at his disposal with his size and leadership at such a young age in short supply in Wales. But the ace up his sleeve is Christ Tshiunza.

Pivac was unsure whether the Exeter star was a lock or a blindside but given Wales' depth in the back-row the smart money might be on Gatland moving him into the second-row. Tshiunza has attributes which few players in Wales possess with his size, physicality and athletic ability a rare mix. Expect to see Tshiunza come to the fore over the next year.

Likely Gatland second-rows - Adam Beard, Alun Wyn Jones. (Others Dafydd Jenkins, Will Rowlands, Christ Tsihunza)

Back row

Expect to see another dramatic shift in terms of the dynamic of Wales' loose-forward trio. Pivac's selections at the back of the scrum were poor, with the balance never quite right.

Gatland has always like a traditional six like Dan Lydiate or Ross Moriarty. Even though Lydiate was an integral part of Wales' success under Gatland it must be remembered he was dropped by for last few years of his tenure with Pivac recalling him for the 2021 Six Nations

It is more likely Gatland brings abrasive Dragons man Moriarty back into the mix after he was left out of Pivac's autumn squad. Gatland has been waxing lyrical of Jac Morgan of late so it would be a surprise if he wasn't there, with November captain Justin Tipuric under threat.

He will be excited at the prospect of linking up with the imperious Taulupe Faletau again but Aaron Wainwright could also come back into the mix. Wainwright was superb during the 2019 Grand Slam and the World Cup but has fallen away over the past few years.

Gatland will want to get him back up to speed while Cardiff man James Botham is a dark horse to force his way into the World Cup squad. Historically, he's exactly what Gatland wants to see in a loose forward. He has a relentless work ethic, is ultra-physical, good over the ball, athletic, but most importantly he's an explosive ball carrier.

Likely Gatland back-row - Ross Moriarty, Jac Morgan, Taulupe Faletau. (Others Justin Tipuric, Aaron Wainwright, Josh Navidi, James Botham).

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