There is now a 98 per cent chance that one of the next five years will be the warmest year on record for the globe, warn scientists.
For the first time ever, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming within the same period.
That is the finding from the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) latest report, which has been produced by the Met Office.
With a 66% chance of temporarily reaching 1.5C by 2027, "it's the first time in history that it's more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5C," said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre who worked on the WMO's latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.
Last year's report put the odds at about 50-50.
Dr Leon Hermanson, from the Met Office, said: “These new highs will be fuelled almost completely by the rise of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but the anticipated development of the naturally-occurring El Nino event will also release heat from the tropical Pacific.”
Partially responsible for boosting the chance of hitting 1.5C is an El Niño weather pattern expected to develop in the coming months. During this natural phenomenon, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures.
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The El Niño "will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory", said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
The report also warns that Arctic heating is predicted to be more than three times higher than the global average, approaching tipping point that could see a collapse of ice and cause huge rise in sea levels.
WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas explained what this means for the Paris Agreement, the legally binding international treaty on climate change with a goal to keep global warming well under 2C. He said: “This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years.
"However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency."
“Global temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” added the Met Office’s Dr Leon Hermanson.”
Another report issued today warns that climate change is causing the hottest days in North-West Europe to warm at double the rate of average summer days.
The difference in trends is most pronounced for England, Wales, and Northern France.
For England and Wales, the average summer day increased by approximately 0.26°C per decade, whilst the hottest day increased by around 0.58°C per decade.
However, this faster warming of the hottest days was not observed to this extent elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere.
According to lead researcher Dr Matthew Patterson, from the University of Oxford’s Department of Physics, the results indicate that extreme heat events – such as the UK’s record-breaking heatwave last summer – are likely to become more regular.
He said: ‘These findings underline the fact that the UK and neighbouring countries are already experiencing the effects of climate change, and that last year’s heatwave was not a fluke. Policy makers urgently need to adapt their infrastructure and health systems to cope with the impacts of higher temperatures.’
