Walmart stock dived and dragged on the Dow Jones industrials futures Thursday, after its Q4 2025 results included a narrow miss on revenue as well as soft guidance. Shares of big box retail rival Target also traded lower.
Walmart reported earnings of 66 cents per share adjusted on $180.6 billion in revenue.
FactSet expected an 8% increase in earnings to 65 cents per share on about 4% revenue growth to $180.07 billion.
Comparable sales for Walmart U.S. rose 4.6%, edging out analyst views for 4.4% growth. Global e-commerce sales grew 16% during the quarter. The company's global advertising business grew 29%.
Walmart expects Q1 2026 earnings to range from 57 cents to 58 cents per share adjusted on 3% to 4% sales growth. That was below FactSet consensus of 64 cents per share on 3.4% revenue growth.
For the year, Walmart predicts earnings of $2.50 to $2.60 per share on 3% to 4% sales growth. Analysts expect full-year earnings of $2.75 per share on about 4% revenue growth.
The Dow Jones component also raised its dividend by 13% to 94 cents per share, marking its largest increase in over a decade.
The results also marked the first time that Amazon beat Walmart in terms of quarterly revenue, as the Magnificent 7 member reported $187.8 billion in sales earlier this month.
Walmart has topped lists of largest companies by revenue, such as the Fortune 500, every year since 2014. It will extend that crown for 2024, with Walmart's total sales of $680.99 billion staving off Amazon's $637.96 billion.
Analysts React
D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Baker called the results "solid" in a Thursday research note, adding that momentum is similar to previous strong quarters last year. The guidance was below consensus, which was likely due to including dilution from the VIZIO deal, which wasn't in estimates. Still, Walmart has a track record of beating expectations, guiding low the next quarter, then beating that, Baker said.
"Thus, we are not overly concerned with the guidance, and to us, the bottom line is that WMT's business trends remain strong," Baker added. D.A. Davidson has a 117 price target on Walmart stock with a buy rating.
Amazon Takes Walmart's Revenue Crown (For Now)
Meanwhile, Edward Jones analyst Brain Yarbrough noted that Walmart is gaining market share and driving positive traffic, at a time when many retailers are struggling to do so. The company continues to benefit from high-income shoppers trading down to Walmart, but that benefit may ease as inflation slows. Walmart also has a huge e-commerce opportunity as customers shift to buying more online, Yarbrough noted. But Walmart's e-commerce profitability will never reach the same as its retail stores, which limits earnings growth. The firm also noted concerns about business investments limiting operating profit growth.
Edward Jones lowered its 2025 earnings estimate for Walmart to $2.55 per share.
Walmart Stock
Shares fell 6.5% Thursday. Rival Target eased2%.
Before earnings, WMT stock had rallied more than 15% since the start of the year, and was extended above a buy zone for a flat base following a late-January breakout. Shares hit a record high of 105.30 on Feb. 14.
That move was part of a larger rally, which saw Walmart advance 89% from a February 2024 breakout.
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