Shares of retail giant Walmart (WMT) are up about 79% over the past year. This uptrend in WMT stock reflects the company’s strong financial performance and upbeat guidance over the past three quarters.
In its latest quarterly report, Walmart exceeded analysts’ expectations, showcasing strong transaction counts and positive unit volumes across all segments in Q3. The company also expanded its market share in the U.S., particularly in grocery and general merchandise categories. Following this impressive performance, Walmart’s stock price experienced a notable increase.
Looking ahead, Walmart is scheduled to announce its Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings on Thursday, Feb. 20. Let’s explore whether Walmart’s Q4 financial results will propel its stock higher.
Walmart: Q4 Expectations
Walmart’s top line could continue to grow in Q4, driven by its expanding product assortment, strong holiday-driven demand, and a value pricing strategy that resonates with consumers. The retail giant will benefit from the continued strength of its e-commerce platform, which is the key driver of its revenue growth. In addition, Walmart’s thriving advertising segment and rising membership income will boost its overall financial performance.
In Q3, the company’s global advertising segment saw a notable 28% growth, fueled by a 50% increase in the international market. Membership trends remained robust, with Sam’s Club expanding its membership base in the U.S. and enhancing its penetration among plus members, leading to a 50% rise in membership revenue. Additionally, Walmart+ experienced double-digit growth in membership revenue during the same quarter.
Walmart focuses on improving operating efficiency, which will support its bottom line. One notable area of progress is the narrowing losses in its global e-commerce business, particularly in the U.S. The company has seen core e-commerce margins improve, driven by delivery densification, a higher percentage of paid expedited delivery orders, and increased automation within its supply chain.
The popularity of expedited delivery has become a key profit driver, with more than 30% of orders now coming from customers willing to pay a convenience fee for faster delivery. Meanwhile, Walmart has made substantial advancements in automating its supply chain, with over 50% of its fulfillment center volume now automated. This shift is yielding tangible benefits, such as a significant reduction in per-unit delivery costs. In fact, Walmart has achieved three consecutive quarters of approximately 40% lower U.S. net delivery costs per order.
As Walmart continues to refine its business mix and scale growth drivers — including advertising, memberships, marketplace operations, and fulfillment — its profit composition is undergoing a transformation. The company’s strategic investments are paying off, positioning it well for future earnings growth.
Thanks to these efforts, Walmart’s bottom line is expected to improve. Analysts project earnings of $0.64 per share, marking a 6.7% increase year-over-year. The company’s impressive track record of beating earnings expectations — most recently exceeding forecasts by 9.43% — further highlights its strong execution and operational momentum.
Analyst Sentiment: A Strong Buy
Wall Street analysts remain bullish on Walmart’s future prospects. The stock has earned a “Strong Buy” consensus rating, reflecting their confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.
Final Takeaway
Walmart continues to grow its market share with a compelling value proposition built on a diverse product range, growing convenience, focus on leveraging technology, and operational efficiency.
As the retail industry increasingly shifts toward digital channels, Walmart’s e-commerce platform will likely deliver solid growth. Its investments in delivery and automation will lower delivery costs per order and drive transactions. Further, its newer revenue streams, such as advertising and membership fees, further strengthen its financial outlook.
With sustained business momentum and seasonal catalysts, including heightened holiday demand, WMT stock appears poised for potential gains following the Q4 earnings release.
