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Netflix (NFLX) has established a strong presence in the digital media and entertainment industries. As a result, it has been able to demonstrate resilience in the face of market volatility and intense competition from rivals such as Disney (DIS) and Amazon (AMZN), among others. While Disney has long been a dominant player in this space, Netflix is on track to dethrone it. In fact, Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne recently chose Netflix as his “top media” pick over Disney, describing it as a more “defensive” play in the current macro environment.
Valued at $394 billion, Netflix stock is up 3.4% year-to-date. Let’s find out if NFLX stock is a good buy now.
Wall Street Analysts Call Netflix a Defensive Play
Morgan Stanley analyst Swinburne believes that momentum in its subscription business and a weakening U.S. dollar could act as positive tailwinds, helping to de-risk 2025 earnings projections despite a potentially softer advertising market. Swinburne maintained a price target of $1,150 for the stock.
Swinburne’s optimistic outlook was not the only vote of confidence. JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth maintained his “Overweight” rating on NFLX stock but lowered his price target to $1,025 from $1,150, citing broader economic headwinds and a looming tariff environment.
“We believe Netflix is likely most resilient within our coverage — but it’s not immune — and therefore we are trimming our estimates,” Anmuth stated in a client note. The analyst believes that high user engagement, low subscriber churn, and the appeal of its ad-supported tier will help it grow in the coming years.
However, Anmuth also acknowledged that as the economy softens, consumers may become more cost-conscious, scrutinizing their monthly bills and cutting back on digital entertainment. JPMorgan economists predict a 60% chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, and they believe subscription-based business models like streaming, cloud services, and food delivery are more resilient.
Separately, TD Cowen’s John Blackledge reaffirmed his “Buy” rating for Netflix, maintaining a price target of $1,150. He anticipates a strong first-quarter earnings report from Netflix next week.
Strong End to 2024, With More Growth Anticipated
Netflix added 19 million subscribers in Q4, with revenue up 16% year-over-year to $10.2 billion. For the full year, the company had 302 million subscribers. Diluted earnings increased by 102.4% to $4.27 per share in Q4.
Management stated during the Q4 earnings call Q&A that the performance was more than just a content story, citing improvements in product, pricing, marketing, and advertising. Furthermore, Netflix’s ad-supported tier has continued to gain popularity. In Q4, this plan accounted for more than 55% of new sign-ups in ad-tier countries. Ad revenue doubled year-over-year in 2024 and is projected to double once more in 2025. Netflix’s foray into live sports also continues to produce standout results.
The company’s overall goal is to increase live content while maintaining profitability. With about 60% of Netflix’s revenue generated outside the U.S., management believes currency headwinds could present some temporary challenges. However, the company remains committed to long-term operational discipline and global expansion.
Management announced a robust 2025 slate that includes new seasons of Wednesday, Stranger Things, Squid Game, You, The Night Agent, and films by Oscar-winning directors. Going into 2025, Netflix is firing on all cylinders, navigating production challenges, executing on global subscriber growth, expanding its advertising arm, and approaching its sports strategy thoughtfully. On April 17, the company will release its first-quarter results for 2025. Management expects revenue to rise by 11.2%, followed by a 5.7% increase in earnings. Analysts covering the stock expect a 13% increase in first-quarter revenue, followed by a 9% increase in earnings.
Furthermore, analysts predict that revenue and earnings will rise by 13.6% and 25.3%, respectively, in 2025. Revenue and earnings are expected to increase by 11.9% and 21.8% in 2026, respectively. Netflix appears to be somewhat expensive, trading at 30 times forward 2026 earnings. However, with strong user engagement, flexible pricing, and an ever-expanding ad-supported tier, the streaming giant is seen as better positioned than most rivals to weather potential macroeconomic turbulence.
Is Netflix Stock a Buy Now on Wall Street?
On Wall Street, overall, Netflix stock is a “Moderate Buy.” Of the 43 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it a “Strong Buy,” two say it is a “Moderate Buy,” 12 rate it a “Hold,” and one suggests it is a “Moderate Sell.” The average target price of $1,081.33 implies upside potential of 18% from current levels. Additionally, the high price estimate of $1,494 suggests the stock could rally as much as 63% over the next 12 months.
The Bottom Line
Netflix’s fourth-quarter results showed a mature, disciplined company navigating complex headwinds while maintaining subscriber growth, monetizing new revenue streams, and experimenting with live events and advertising. All of this is happening while the company remains focused on its core strengths, which are content and innovation. The company appears to be on track to maintain its current momentum through 2025. Netflix stock is down 13.6% from its 52-week high, owing to tariff-induced market fears, making it a good buy now on the dip.
