One of Wales' top doctors believes the public should expect "one or more waves" of coronavirus over the coming months. Consultant epidemiologist Dr Chris Williams, of Public Health Wales (PHW), said the vaccination uptake and overall population immunity were helping to keep serious illness at bay for most people.
However he warned that community transmission, hospitalisations, and deaths had risen over recent weeks which could indicate the start of an early autumn wave. But he stressed that the number of severe infections, compared with overall infections, is much lower compared to what Wales has seen at other stages in the pandemic.
The latest infection survey from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the week ending September 26, which is based on a random sample, suggested that 2.09% – or one in 50 – of Wales' population had Covid-19 that week. That is up slightly on 2.07% the week before but a much slower rate of change than in the preceding weeks.
Read more: Covid infections jump 25% across the UK - but not in Wales
Meanwhile the number of patients in acute hospitals with coronavirus has risen rapidly in Wales, up from a low point of 172 on September 15 to 437 on October 4, the most recent day for which figures are available. However it must be noted that only 29 (7%) of these patients are actively being treated for the virus.
Commenting on the current situation, Dr Williams said: "We've had a double-wave of infection in the first part of 2022 and then the large wave in July. As time has gone on the community waves have resulted in fewer and fewer hospital admissions per case and fewer and fewer deaths. We don't see those big spikes in hospital admissions anymore, which is really good and testament to the vaccination uptake and population immunity through infection.
"What we're seeing now, if I 'look out the window' so to speak, is that there's an uptick in community incidents such as in care homes. Other reports are also indicating a rise in community infections – lateral flow tests are more likely to be positive, the Zoe symptom tracker and ONS surveys are showing increases in prevalence, and the wastewater testing is also showing an upward trend.
"We've seen an increase in hospital admissions towards the latter part of September which looks like it may have peaked but could continue to rise. There's also been a small increase in Covid deaths but the overall mortality is around five-year average."
Dr Williams admitted that Wales has reached "an uncertain point" in the pandemic where infection rates are at a crossroads. He added: "There are some variations in the virus which seem to be showing convergent evolution, with lots of variants that are quite similar. We're not seeing, we think, one single variant causing this current wave.
"We've also had the schools go back and other changes of behaviour which could be causing the rise in cases. We also know that the last big vaccination campaign ended earlier in the year and the vaccine effectiveness tends to wane after about three or six months, even against hospitalisation. That's why the autumn booster vaccination campaign is so important in preventing these infections from becoming a serious problem.
"So we could be at the start of an early autumn wave or it could just be a temporary increase with a large wave coming later on. With a good booster programme, providing there are no radical changes in the virus, the worst harms should be prevented.”
But Dr Williams admitted that it could be a tough winter for the Welsh NHS with the combination of Covid, flu, and general winter pressures causing increased demands on the system. Public Health Wales warned last month that they are anticipating a significant flu season for the first time since the pandemic and have described it a "major public health issue".
The NHS trust said cases of flu are already being detected in Wales. Scientists say that the flu season could be as severe as the 2017-18 outbreak where 16,500 thousand people in Wales were diagnosed by their GP and 2,500 people were hospitalised. There was also a high level of seasonal excess deaths that year – the worst for around 20 years. The NHS trust is now urging anyone who is eligible for a free flu vaccine to take up the offer to protect themselves and others from serious illness.
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