Read Paul Rees’ report from Cardiff:
A fully deserved win for Wales there. They won the battle at the breakdown, matched Ireland tackle for tackle and, despite Jonny Sexton’s best efforts, were sharper in the backs thanks especially to Webb, Biggar and North. Their chances of winning the title are slim – they would almost certainly need Italy to beat Scotland on the final weekend and a lot of other results to go their way – but they can sleep a whole lot easier over the World Cup draw now.
As for Ireland, they’re going to need some picking up after that. They will rue the number of times they went into the Welsh 22 and came away with nothing, conceding turnovers, penalties or knock-ons far too often for a side that wants to have a tilt at winning the next World Cup. They put bodies on the line and were battered and bruised in a tough old match and have the small matter of England next weekend.
And of course it might not matter. It’s all rather simple now for England: win tomorrow and the title is theirs. Do join me for that one and cheers for reading tonight. Bye!
Full-time: Wales 22-9 Ireland
That’s it! Rob Howley has a very vindicated smile on his face as Sam Davies knocks on and Wayne Barnes blows his whistle. And just to rub salt in Irish wounds, Tommy Bowe – he must have been one of those who just came on – is taken off on a cart with what looks like an ankle injury. No comment.
80 min Ireland make a load of changes. I can’t see who they all are but it really doesn’t matter now.
Conversion (Halfpenny 79) Wales 22-9 Ireland
Halfpenny chips it over from under the posts. Wales have won this – obviously.
Try! (Roberts 78) Wales 20-9 Ireland
Sexton tries to chip it cutely over the top and Faletau charges him down! It sits up into the hands of Jamie Roberts, who crashes over from 10 metres!
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78 min Poor passing along the line and Ireland have been forced all the way back into their own 22. Still they refuse to put boot to ball. “Discipline!” is the shout and to be honest it could have been from anyone on either side. We’re through 12, 13 phases and still there’s nothing happening...
77 min Tipuric takes the throw, 15 metres inside his own half, and Davies goes high. Earls takes it very well on his own 10 metre line and Ireland look to run it but Wales are up so quickly – Ireland’s backs are taking it standing still every time thanks to that line-speed.
76 min Biggar boots it into touch on the left.
75 min Solid scrum from Ireland, but it’s knocked on in midfield by Earls under a great hit from Roberts. And to make it worse, the ball is played by a man in front of the ball, so Wales have a penalty.
74 min Ireland really need to score here, you feel.
73 min Lovely cross-field chip from Sexton finds Zebo in the 22 and North makes the tackle. They recycle and Sexton goes high again, across to the other wing and Earls and Liam Williams take each other out jumping for the ball. It bobbles into touch for a five-metre lineout. Tipuric taps it down but Gareth Davies can’t gather it cleanly and O’Mahony scrags him, winning his side a five-metre scrum! Brilliant work from the replacement flanker. Is there a better replacement flanker in the world than that man?
72 min Baldwin on for Owens. My fantasy rugby team is being gutted out there.
71 min Sexton goes high but too deep and it’s easy for Halfpenny to take 12 metres inside his own half. The ball goes loose at the back of the ensuing ruck though and Ireland are all over the scrum-half Davies. Scrum Ireland as they win the turnover.
70 min Ireland have been woefully inefficient when in the Welsh 22. Biggar kicks to touch midway inside his own half as Lee replaces Francis. From the lineout, Gareth Davies kicks to Zebo.
69 min Taken at the front by Henderson and here comes the maul. Up to the line and over.. Wayne Barnes puts his arm up ... but it’s for a penalty to Wales for obstruction! The maul separated then reformed with Henshaw coming in to block off the Welsh defenders, so that’s a great call.
68 min The maul comes to nothing but Ireland reset and go through the phases once again. Nothing on so Sexton stabs the kick through and though Halfpenny gathers, Zebo drags him into touch right by his own goal line!
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67 min Scott Williams off, Jamie Roberts on. Nicky Smith, Gareth Davies and Faletau are all on too. Ireland win the lineout and Henshaw crashes it up on the 22, where they form a maul. I’m surprised Stander went off so early, by the way.
66 min High from Kearney and his opposite number knocks it on. As Barnes calls advantage over Sexton kicks across and Biggar is struggling badly under intense pressure. Halfpenny can’t get it away so in come the forwards. Back to Biggar and his kick from deep is charged down and it slips through Earls’ fingertips as he jumps trying to catch the ball! It comes back to Wales and they clear to touch, but it doesn’t leave the 22.
65 min Lovely kick through from Ringrose and Halfpenny has to turn and sweep up, which he does well inside his own 22. Slowly, calmly, Wales clear through Webb.
64 min Tipuric takes the lineout and Webb goes high, for Biggar to chase and reclaim. Davies spins it long out to Halfpenny and the full-back makes good ground down the Welsh right. Back left but Healy, I think, wins an excellent turnover.
63 min Another change for Ireland as Henderson replaces Devin Toner. Wales make a similar change, replacing Ball with Charteris. Back on the pitch, AWJ steals another lineout but then L Williams boots it straight to Kearney. Recycled and Sexton sprays it beautifully to Earls. He scoots down the right but then knocks on. Stander off, O’Mahony on.
62 min High from Sexton and Halfpenny can’t gather, but Warburton dives on the loose ball and secures it inside his own 22. Top work there from the former captain, who has been outstanding in defence, against the marauding Stander especially, tonight.
61 min Webb goes high and the ball bounces to Henshaw. Ireland go right and Tipuric stops Ringrose, so back left they go and Zebo gains 20 metres with a run down the left touchline.
60 min McGrath goes off, Cian Healy on. Oof that’s some sub to bring on. Sexton goes shallow with his restart and Tipuric gathers it before breaking past the first tackle. He goes to ground in the tackle and then plays the ball when it comes back his way, and gives away a stupid penalty though. Sexton clears to touch but AWJ steals the lineout on halfway.
59 min What a pass from the loosehead Evans, from midfield wide and allowing Liam Williams to shoot down into the 22! Wales go through the phases now, under the posts and with Biggar in the pocket ... and he hits the outside of the post with his effort from 30 metres. Should have got that one.
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58 min Kicked to Zebo and North smothers him immediately. Wouldn’t it have been good if he’d played like this while Wales could still win the title, Wales fans? Under pressure, Earls kicks it straight down the throat of Biggar and here come Wales again!
Penalty (Sexton 57) Wales 15-9 Ireland
From 13 metres, dead in front, Sexton makes it a one-score game.
“George North has decided he’d quite like to go to New Zealand again after all,” wrote Matt Dony, even before Halfpenny had converted his second try.
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56 min Taken by Toner but there’s no maul this time. Ringrose is tackled high by Biggar and that’s a very harsh penalty as the Wales No10 immediately pulled out of the attempted tackle when he realised how high on Ringrose he was going. Sexton should knock this over.
55 min 25 phases but then a poor pass from Sexton sees them lose ground. It’s turned over but illegally, with hands in the ruck, and Ireland get the penalty for that. Sexton sticks it in the right-hand corner.
54 min Back come Ireland, hammering away and Best nearly knocks on five metres out from the posts. He holds on after juggling though and Ireland keep the pressure on, O’Brien to the fore at every phase it seems.
53 min Back right now and Ireland are up to the five metre line. Sexton has made such a difference with his passing since his return from the bin. He loops and gets it to Kearney but North stops him in his tracks.
52 min Now Ireland find a bit of space thanks to Ringrose’s footwork and Ryan carries into the 22!
51 min Great clearing kick from Sexton, into touch a metre inside his own half on the left. Ball gave 20 metres away needlessly there. Wide go Ireland from the lineout and Earls takes it into Welsh territory down the right.
50 min Moriarty goes for a drive down the right but is tackled into touch well by Marmion. Sexton returns and oh how Ireland need his hand on the tiller. Ireland lineout, 10 or so from their own line, on their left. Heaslip takes it and eventually Ireland get a penalty for Ball collapsing the maul.
49 min Drop goal coming? Not for the moment as Ball carries it on, then Owens and he’s driven back by Stander. They’re too wide for the drop now ... but back inside it comes. Williams, S, steps past Ringrose and they go right now.
48 min Wales lineout on the 22 and Webb darts towards a gap, which shuts quickly. Owens takes it on, then AWJ, then Warburton. Right now and Davies is stopped taking a short pass. Ireland have done well to slow it down here.
47 min The ball goes loose on halfway and Webb stabs a kick towards the left-hand corner for Liam Williams to chase. Henshaw is back and gathers on his own line, but Zebo can’t make much distance with his clearance. Ireland are rattled right now, although Sexton is about to return.
46 min It gets worse for Ireland: Murray sadly slumps off, his head bowed, to be replaced by Marmion.
Conversion (Halfpenny 46) Wales 15-6 Ireland
From wide on the right, Halfpenny nudges Wales further in front. I should mention that was awful defence from Ireland on the short side.
Try! (North 44) Wales 13-6 Ireland
Jones takes at the front and the maul forms. It crabs infield and Webb pops it right for North to slide over! He’s back!
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43 min It goes loose and Webb and North hack ahead. Webb then chips ahead and Murray picks it up in his own bottom left hand corner, where Halfpenny gets up and drags him into touch! Great chance now for Wales.
42 min Earls and Stander slowly make a few metres down the left then Ireland send it back inside. Stander has, alongside Kearney, been Ireland’s most impressive player so far but he’s driven back now by AWJ, so Ireland go right and Henshaw carries up to almost the 22.
41 min North takes Zebo’s restart. After a couple of phases it’s cleared and Toner is driven back by Tipuric just the Welsh side of the Welsh 10 metre line.
“Now watching game but I’d say having come in at end hard to see how sexton could get out of way seems harsh to me and I don’t care who wins tonight my game is tomorrow,” writes JDT mobile.
The players are back.
Half-time: Wales 8-6 Ireland
And it’s knocked on. I’m going to get a cup of tea and nip for a comfort break, and hopefully make it back before the second half.
40 min Wales clear through Webb, Ireland run it back and McGrath makes excellent ground with a pick and go from the 10 metre line. Not much ground but he did very well to do it. Left now and Earls slips away from Webb to get to within 10 metres of the 22. Now we go through the phases as the clock ticks over into the red.
39 min Actually Sexton wasn’t really able to roll away from the ruck at all, so a penalty try was out of the question I suppose. As he’s off the pitch, Zebo restarts.
Penalty (Halfpenny 39) Wales 8-6 Ireland
Wayne Barnes says Wales can pick which penalty they want: the one in front of the posts or the one wide on the left. You can guess what they went for.
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38 min With a penalty advantage Biggar stabs a cross-kick left and Liam Williams takes it! Inside to Halfpenny, then Jonathan Davies, who gets to within a metre! Sexton kills the ball and is sent to the bin. Not sure why that’s not a penalty try to be honest.
37 min Wales go left and Williams, L, goes scuttling past Earls and into the 22. Shovelled right now and Webb pops it short to Tipuric but it’s well read by Ireland’s defence.
36 min It doesn’t look like Murray is going to last much longer ... he’s ok for now, though he looks uncomfortable. Look, Conor, if some of us can come into work on a broken, untreated ankle...
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35 min Ah there we go, the scrum is completed. Henshaw drives it out of the 22, Stander is driven back then Sexton goes high down the middle and Kearney takes it well. That didn’t make a lot of ground, then a few phases later Furlong drops a pass.
“Did I see Murray get stamped on when he was on the ground there, or is it my green goggles?” asks Conor Murphy. I didn’t see anything and no one has said anything on the telly.
34 min ...
33 min Wales have stalled a bit now. Tipuric grinds into the 22 but then Webb’s pop pass inside for Liam Williams is forward. The Wales scrum half once again looks distraught at the correct application of the laws.
32 min Good scrum and North makes it over the gainline in midfield before Moriarty does likewise. North has been very sharp so far. Wales keep battering away, through the phases and Biggar takes it up to the 22.
Murray is fine to continue. Which is good news for Ireland/Munster/the Lions/my fantasy rugby team.
31 min Conor Murray is hurting, think it’s his hand or wrist. Meanwhile Biggar goes high and Earls knocks it on just outside his own 22.
30 min Wales scrum a couple of metres inside the Irish half. They go right from it and barrel up to the 10 metre line but it’s slow ball.
29 min Yet again Biggar’s pass is intercepted but Sexton is immediately turned over. Wales go left and Scott Williams sends out a long looping pass ... which Earls intercepts. The centre, stretching, knocks it on though.
28 min Again it’s kicked to Zebo. Again Murray box kicks clear to touch on the left. I’m not going to bother reporting on these Welsh restarts any more – just assume that happened.
Penalty (Jackson 27) Wales 5-6 Ireland
From just to the left, inside the 22, Jackson makes it 14 successful kicks in a row for him. And then goes off for Sexton to return.
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26 min That’s a great bit of defence from Wales at the maul but then Stander sends Tipuric staggering backwards. Tipuric doesn’t release his man and that’s a penalty, from which Jackson will restore Ireland’s lead.
25 min Stander, Toner, Best, Heaslip. All go but the latter two are driven back and we go back to a penalty to Ireland for collapsing the original maul. Jackson nudges it into the corner again.
24 min Jackson finds a good touch with the penalty, on the left and around 10 metres from the Welsh line. This time Toner takes it and here comes the big Irish driving maul. Stander has it at the back as they get to within two.
23 min Taken in by Ryan on his own 10 metre line and Ireland try to drive it this time. Murray goes high when that doesn’t go anywhere and Wales are penalised for crossing in front of the chasers.
22 min Kearney takes the restart but Jackson knocks on a few phases later and Wales can clear. Kearney then regathers his own high ball and kicks on again but Biggar sends a wonderful clearance to touch on the right well inside the Irish half.
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21 min Halfpenny shanks the conversion from out wide. “Now, that was a substantially better try than I was expecting from this game,” says Matt Dony.
Try! (North 20) Wales 5-3 Ireland
What a move! Williams makes a half break in midfield and offloads out the tackle to Webb in support. He bursts through midfield and does brilliantly to spot Halfpenny wide on the right. He finds him with a long pass, Halfpenny on to North and the Northampton man shows great strength to finish in the corner!
Photograph: Andrew Boyers/Reuters
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Not even that, says Barnes. We’re going to continue, with a Welsh lineout a metre or two inside the Wales half.
We’re going to the TMO, presumably for Barnes to have a look at the Davies/Sexton incident. Just a penalty I reckon.
19 min That’s because Jonathan Davies came charging in as Sexton went down to collect the ball, and kneed him in the head. Didn’t look intentional, but Sexton is off for an HIA. Paddy Jackson is on.
18 min It’s on the Welsh 10 metre line, I should add. A good scrum for Wales and the two centres get it out to Williams, who chips it back inside for the supporting runners to chase into the 22. It’s recovered by Sexton on the floor and Murray clears, but the No10 has stayed down.
17 min The linespeed of the two defences is something to behold. Ireland batter away, Wales get up on them so, so quickly and Sexton eventually kicks poorly, his milquetoast garryowen bouncing over the dead ball line and ceding a scrum.
16 min This is getting a bit breathless. The 5m lineout goes wrong though and Moriarty comes away with it. Biggar clears but poorly and it bounces in no-man’s land.
15 min Biggar knocks on a high ball and Stander comes down the left, shrugging off the challenge of North and making great ground! Recycled and there are hands in the ruck. Sexton pops it in the bottom left-hand corner.
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13 min Sexton’s penalty finds touch 11 metres inside his own half, on the left. They go right and Zebo’s looping pass under pressure means Earls has to kick it away. Jonathan Davies and Tipuric take it over halfway but then when they come right Zebo intercepts and skips away from Evans! He kicks ahead from the 22 and Biggar does very well, sliding, to watch it over the try line before safely dotting it down.
12 min Wales are 10 metres out, in front of the posts. They go left from there and Biggar pops it short to Liam Williams, then it comes back inside and Best drives his opposite number Ken Owens back. Still they come, but then it’s dropped and subsequently played from an offside position.
11 min Lovely grubber wide from Biggar and Liam Williams takes it up almost to the 22. Wales recycle and go right but these are some enormous collisions. North carries into the 22 then Ball drives it on. Rob Evans looks to have made a double movement but Barnes lets it go.
10 min From the lineout, Wales get the driving maul going and then go right. Jonathan Davies throws the first pass of his life and North goes charging up but he’s well downed by Zebo. Wales recycle though, inside the Irish half.
9 min Strangely Ireland don’t challenge at the lineout. Tipuric wins and Stander is miles offside at the ruck. What have you done, Italy? Biggar kicks to touch down the left, 10 metres inside his own half.
8 min Again Zebo takes the restart with Ireland ready to lift Henshaw and Ringrose. North wraps him up, Murray clears to Halfpenny and the full-back runs it up to the 10 metre line. But then Biggar’s pass is intercepted by Sexton and Henshaw spins it wide fast! Earls stabs a kick ahead and into the corner to put Owens under pressure.
Penalty (Sexton 7) Wales 0-3 Ireland
In fact it’s more like 48 metres with the angle. Or rather it is 48 metres with the angle. In any case, Sexton nudges it through with no difficulty at all.
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5 min Zebo comes in off his wing from the lineout but is stopped in midfield. Sexton sends it looping left to Stander, who knocks on but the tackle from Webb was high. Sexton will have a crack from 40 metres, just to the left.
4 min Clean ball and both Irish centres bash it up over the gainline. They recycle right and Kearney looks to step his way through but there’s no room for him. Eventually Sexton puts up the first bomb of the night and North knocks it backwards, but Webb sweeps up this time six metres out from his own line. Eventually they make their exit through Biggar, who clears to touch on the right.
Sean O'Brien shouting 'tackle only, tackle only.' Such a hipster.
— Murray Kinsella (@Murray_Kinsella) March 10, 2017
2 min Left it goes to Zebo and he chips it over North. Tipuric attempts to sweep up but can’t and eventually it’s the big wing who has to go back and clean up the messy ball. Webb clears and Earls brings it back. Wales go for the turnover but knock it on on the floor, about 12 metres inside their own half.
Here we go!
1 min Wayne Barnes – sigh – gives the signal and Dan Biggar kicks off, going long into the 22 where Zebo collects. Murray box-kicks to touch down the Irish left, 11 metres inside his own half. Tipuric, winning his 50th cap, wins it and there’s nearly an interception by Henshaw, but Wales keep it ... for a couple of phases, before Jones turns it over on the 10 metre line.
The players are out. Before the anthems, we have a minute’s applause, set to piano music, as a tribute to Elli Norkett, who sadly died in a car crash last month.
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A few more predictions
“Heart says Wales, head says Ireland by eight,” writes Matt Dony. “Howley-ball still not convincing. Not the most fun winter I’ve ever had, and at the moment, not hugely excited about Welsh Lions prospects. Ah well, heading out for a cheeky half of shandy, so not all bad.”
@DanLucas86 Very hard game to call. Both teams under pressure. Both teams can be accused of a one-dimensional attack. But I can't wait!
— John Rogers (@JohnRogersShow) March 10, 2017
Yes I imagine this will be close and exciting, but not because of the flavour of rugby on offer.
Time for the musical battle
v
The only injury worry tonight is right here at Guardian Towers, where your MBMer got a phone call on the way in to say that the x-ray he had three days ago showed his ankle is broken – and has been since last Saturday – after all. But anyway, predictions!
@DanLucas86 huge battle of the back rows awaits that'll be the key area all top class & on form. An Ire win even if Sexton only lasts 65mins
— John McEnerney (@MackerOnTheMed) March 10, 2017
I reckon today comes down to the kicking from hand and that there Ireland have a massive advantage. Wales will be up for this but it won’t be enough. Narrowly.
Preamble
Evening, folks. Did you have a nice time off? Good. Now settle down because this one is, as the kids say, an absolute doozy.
Both sides are desperate for a win here, for different reasons. Wales, if they lose, are in danger of slipping out of the top eight in the World Rugby rankings and the likelihood therefore is a pool of death in the World Cup draw later this spring. Admittedly that happened at the last World Cup and we all know what happened then, but it’s not exactly a situation they would be happy with.
As for Ireland, defeat wouldn’t quite end their chances of winning the Six Nations title but it would mean that England would be the hot favourites to secure it at Twickenham against Scotland tomorrow. Win and they face the English for the title at the Aviva next Saturday, although the Scots and the French are still in the race.
Both sides are unchanged from two weeks ago. For Ireland that’s no great surprise, as they were impressive in securing their biggest ever Six Nations win against France. For Wales, you imagine some players are in the last-chance saloon. Ross Moriarty was some way below his best and Taulupe Faletau is one hell of a player to have breathing down your neck. Dan Biggar has also failed to convince and many are calling for his Ospreys colleague Sam Davies to take over the No10 shirt, while George North was abysmal in the defeat to Scotland and is perhaps only still there because of a lack of options on the right wing.
The head-to-head between these two sides is an interesting one. Last year’s meeting at the Aviva was a draw but Wales have the chance to win back-to-back home games against Ireland for the first time since 1983. The Irish though have won here five times in eight Six Nations meetings, although you have to go back a decade to find the last time there was a double-figure margin between them at the Millennium Stadium.
Kick-off is at 8.05pm GMT, which means that on a Friday night Cardiff should be buzzing. Here are your teams.
Wales
15-Leigh Halfpenny, 14-George North, 13-Jonathan Davies, 12-Scott Williams, 11-Liam Williams, 10-Dan Biggar, 9-Rhys Webb; 1-Rob Evans, 2-Ken Owens, 3-Tomas Francis, 4-Jake Ball, 5-Alun Wyn Jones (captain), 6-Sam Warburton, 7-Justin Tipuric, 8-Ross Moriarty.
Replacements: 16-Scott Baldwin, 17-Nicky Smith, 18-Samson Lee, 19-Luke Charteris, 20-Taulupe Faletau, 21-Gareth Davies, 22-Sam Davies, 23-Jamie Roberts.
Ireland
15-Rob Kearney, 14-Keith Earls, 13-Garry Ringrose, 12-Robbie Henshaw, 11-Simon Zebo, 10-Johnny Sexton, 9-Conor Murray; 1-Jack McGrath, 2-Rory Best (captain), 3-Tadhg Furlong, 4-Donnacha Ryan, 5-Devin Toner, 6-CJ Stander, 7-Sean O’Brien, 8-Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: 16-Niall Scannell, 17-Cian Healy, 18-John Ryan, 19-Iain Henderson, 20-Peter O’Mahony, 21-Kieran Marmion, 22-Paddy Jackson, 23-Tommy Bowe.
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