Maybe the only thing certain about a Wales v England rugby match is the uncertainty.
One side might seem overwhelming favourites on paper, as England were when they arrived in Cardiff in 1993, for instance. They had won back-to-back Grand Slams and were formidable in all areas, but Wales were able to shock them as they secured their only win of the tournament.
It had been the same four years earlier, again in Cardiff, when a Welsh side battered by losses to rugby league somehow fashioned a win, with Robert Jones inspiring them with wonderful box-kicking in the rain and Robert Norster, Phil Davies and Paul Thorburn also playing dominant roles. "Don't ask me about emotions in the Welsh dressing room. I'm someone who cries when he watches Little House on the Prairie," Norster once said.
But passion and emotion always play a part in this fixture.
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The manner of Welsh defeats has been troubling, with Ireland strolling to victory at the Principality Stadium and Scotland handing out a record hiding at Murrayfield.
Below are the head-to-head ratings.
Leigh Halfpenny 7 v 8 Freddie Steward
Steward was just seven when Halfpenny made his Test bow in 2008. Now the England man is seen as one of the best full-backs in the world while at 34 his Welsh rival is in the twilight of his career.
But England won’t underestimate Halfpenny, whose ability to read play can sometimes make it seem there are three Leigh Halfpennys on the pitch. The Scarlet’s goal-kicking could also be important.
For Wales, the golden rule will be not to waste time sending bombs the way of the 6ft 5in Steward, with the Leicester Tiger world class in the matter of soaring high into the air and claiming high kicks.
Josh Adams 7 v 7 Max Malins
Adams’ challenge is to transfer his club form onto the Test stage once again. In fairness to him, opportunities haven’t exactly been piling up. He has held his place presumably because Warren Gatland feels he has what it takes to come good, but he’ll know there’s scope for him to be better.
Malins is dangerous and has been in form. He couldn’t halt Duhan van der Merwe for his second try in England’s defeat by Scotland, but maybe nothing short of a tranquiliser dart would have done the job there.
Mason Grady 6 v 7 Henry Slade
It takes a lot to get Gatland excited, so his praise this week of Grady underlines the 20-year-old’s potential. The 6ft 5in, 17st 5lb, Test debutant doesn’t just have size and power on his side, he is also quick and skilful, a player who can do more than just truck the ball up. You can read here about the new Welsh rugby 'monster' who's already bigger than George North.
But of course he is inexperienced. He is up against a classy operator in Slade, a player who has 53 caps and quality to spare, but if Grady hits the ground running it could be a good contest.
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Joe Hawkins 6 v 7 Ollie Lawrence
Gatland’s retention of Hawkins in a much-changed backline is a significant show of faith in the youngster. Wales’ backs didn’t fire against Scotland and they have been missing too many tackles, but the Osprey is a nice passer of a ball and a player who will look to create, even if, like Mason Grady, he is very much an L-plater at this level.
Lawrence is also still putting miles on the clock but he has been playing in the English Premiership for close on half a decade. He will run straight and hard and keep the Welsh defence honest. Italy struggled to deal with him. Wales have to cut down his space and, if possible, limit his opportunities to run at them, but it’s easier said than done.
Louis Rees-Zammit 8 v 8 Anthony Watson
The sight of Louis Rees-Zammit causing panic in Harlequins’ defence last week would have cheered Gatland at a time of otherwise relentless gloom for the New Zealander. It was the wing's first game back after eight weeks out, and he looked as if he hadn’t been away. The 22-year-old has electric pace, and such a quality settles a lot of arguments on a rugby field.
That said, England have a Rolls Royce wing of their own in Anthony Watson. Indeed, his performance for Leicester against the Ospreys at the Swansea.com Stadium in December this term was one of the classiest individual displays of the campaign at the ground. Injuries never seem far away from him, but there are not many better back-three men in Europe.
Owen Williams 6 v 7 Owen Farrell
Outside Leinster, Williams is that rare breed as a player who has won every game that he has started this season. He has a cool head and he has given the Ospreys structure and direction.
A drawback is that this is his first Test start at fly-half, so there is an element of the unproven about him in this environment, but it would be no surprise if he coped. The challenge for Wales will be to present him with front-foot ball.
Farrell isn’t the quickest, nor is he the most creative and his dodgy tackling technique has seen him hauled before the beaks more than once, but team-mates relish having him alongside them in the trenches.
“He has been a leader since I have known him at 14,” Jamie George once said. “He’s the sort of person you want to follow.”
Tomos Williams 6 v 6 Jack van Poortvliet
Van Poortvliet has a quick pass, a decent kicking game, likes to snipe and isn’t afraid to boss his forwards but his form has been patchy in Test rugby so far, with his effort against New Zealand in the autumn underlining how much he still has to learn at this level.
He is up against an opponent loaded with talent but who himself hasn’t been operating at his best, with Williams fortunate to hold his place after failing to put a stamp on proceedings against Scotland. But if he delivers England will know about it because he has skills in his locker that few others possess.
Gareth Thomas 7 v 8 Ellis Genge
Thomas will have a point to prove, having been surprisingly dropped for the game with Scotland. He is an excellent defender, but his primary job on Saturday will be to test the scrummaging mettle of Kyle Sinckler.
Genge is a player who likes to pile up big counts for tackles and carries, a thoroughly modern prop who does the work of two players around the field. It is less clear that he is a truly effective set-piece operator. Wales will want to discover the answer to that one.
Ken Owens 7 v 7 Jamie George
Wales have looked to old hands like Owens and Alun Wyn Jones over the past couple of weeks to steady the ship that was disgracefully allowed to rock by others outside the camp.
Fair play, it’s hard to put a price on leadership of the sort the pair have provided.
Now the task for Owens is to get the job done on the pitch against an opponent the Scarlet knows well from Lions tours. Can Wales sort out their lineout problems? With multiple lineout options in Beard, Jones, Tshiunza, Tipuric and Faletau it shouldn’t be beyond them.
It’s to Owens’ immense credit that he hasn’t gone missing around the field amid mediocre team performances in this campaign. But he does need to sharpen his accuracy when it comes to finding his jumpers.
George plays with similar energy and England will look to their experienced hooker.
Tomas Francis 6 v 7 Kyle Sinckler
It’s a big afternoon for Francis. Wales need him to work Ellis Genge hard in the scrums so the England loosehead doesn’t have the energy to rampage around the field in trademark fashion. Merely settling for parity won’t be enough.
For a tighthead, Sinckler has a big workrate, but he can creak at scrum-time and endured a tough shift against Ox Nche in the South Africa Test in the autumn — ‘monstered’ was the verdict of one pundit. Wales will want to put him under pressure in the pushing and shoving game.
Adam Beard 6 v 8 Maro Itoje
Such has been the flak Beard has copped of late it has almost seemed as though some might be tempted to pin the blame on him for global warming, problems over the Northern Ireland protocol and the censorship of Roald Dahl’s books.
The charge is that he’s not dynamic enough as a carrier.
But he was a key contributor to the Ospreys’ purple patch either side of Christmas and he is a more-than-decent operator at lineouts, mauls and in defence. Those hoping he’ll morph into a Welsh Eben Etzebeth any time soon may be disappointed, but the 6ft 8in forward has been picked because the coaches believe in him. He now needs to justify their faith.
Itoje hasn’t been at his best, not helped by playing at blindside in a couple of England’s pre-Christmas Tests, but he is a leader and Wales know what he can bring.
Alun Wyn Jones 7 v 7 Ollie Chessum
Jones and Beard outplayed the Leicester Tigers locks, of whom Chessum was one, in the Ospreys’ recent Heineken Champions Cup win at Welford Road. Wales could do with their former captain rolling back the years once again.
If it didn’t quite happen for him against Ireland, albeit he was far from the worst Welsh player on the field that day, he performed exceptionally in the previous game, against Australia in November.
Let’s see how this one goes.
Chessum is still learning the ropes in Test rugby but he’s been England’s main lineout target in this Six Nations, has a lot of energy, bounds around the field and enjoys having the ball in his hands.
Christ Tshiunza 7 v 7 Lewis Ludlam
Ludlam is a scrapper who’ll put his body on the line and concede nothing. Being a Spurs supporter has evidently equipped him to deal with stress because on the pitch he’s often a rock for his club side Northampton. Whatever the game, he seems to deliver for them.
But Tshiunza won’t be fazed, with the young Exeter Chief emerging from the wreckage of a dire Wales team performance against Scotland with his reputation enhanced. When others were finding the going tough, he was offering hope for the future with his stubborn refusal to lose without a fight. It was impressive stuff from a 21-year-old.
Justin Tipuric 8 v 7 Jack Willis
Willis was likened to ‘Viking berserker’ after his all-action display against Italy, but a major knee injury stalled his career at one point and he remains inexperienced at Test level. That said, he is a player who is capable of bossing breakdowns and making many tackles.
Inexperienced Tipuric isn’t.
Multi-skilled he is.
The Ospreys man has extraordinary gifts in attack that are matched by his resolve and intelligence in defence. Christ Tshiunza, Taulupe Faletau and others will need to support him in the matter of winning turnovers, with England boasting multiple breakdown threats in Itoje, Willis and Dombrandt, but Tipuric is a player of rare quality.
Taulupe Faletau 9 v 7 Alex Dombrandt
Faletau remains a top-quality performer, notwithstanding that he found himself benched for the game with Scotland at Murrayfield as Gatland looked to give younger players exposure. On hearing the news, Gregor Townsend must have thought all his birthdays had arrived at once
Rare is the game that Faletau doesn’t impact.
Against Ireland in round one, he was widely deemed to have been below his best, yet revised statistics showed that he made 21 tackles and 13 carries. He can be relied on to make good decisions, has the handling skills of a back, doesn’t give up and is supremely conditioned.
Dombrandt unfailingly catches the eye as a carrier, but against Scotland he missed a last-man tackle on Duhan van der Merwe and made a couple of handling errors, while he struggled to put an all-round stamp on matters against Italy. The key for Wales will be to stop him building a head of steam.
Replacements
Wales 7 v 8 England
England have vast experience in reserve in Mako Vunipola, Dan Cole and Courtney Lawes, while the likes of Marcus Smith and Henry Arundell have the speed and skills to test any tired Wales players late on.
Dan Biggar and Nick Tompkins have potentially game-changing know-how for the hosts, with Bradley Roberts an energetic hooker, Rhys Carre a handful as a carrier and Daf Jenkins and Tommy Reffell youngsters who are capable of making a mark.
Totals
Wales 110, England 115
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