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Wales Online
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Ben James

Wales' number 10s rated amid fitness and form issues days before squad announced

Three years into Wayne Pivac's reign, it's fair to say some positions are still up for grabs while others are totally nailed down.

The scrum-half jersey, for example, still seems susceptible to moving around, but fly-half is the opposite. Of Pivac's 30 matches in charge, Dan Biggar has started 24 of those, including the last 11 consecutive games.

It would likely have been longer were it not for an out-of-window Test match against New Zealand in the last autumn campaign and a summer tour while Biggar was on Lions duty. The last time Biggar didn't start a match through selection rather than unavailability would be the final match of the autumn campaign in 2020 against Italy.

Read more: Wales could name new rugby captain imminently as leading candidate emerges

The Northampton Saints playmaker is the undisputed first-choice No. 10, but there is now a sense of doubt over his involvement this autumn following a knee injury. The news that "his condition will be reviewed by a specialist ahead of the autumn internationals" suggests it might be more serious than first thought. The squad is announced on Tuesday, October 18.

Were Biggar to miss out, then the next likely option would almost certainly be Gareth Anscombe. Last year, he made a relatively rusty return to Test rugby against the All Blacks after two years out.

Since then, he has managed to find his way back to the pace of international rugby, playing a crucial role in Wales' second Test victory over South Africa this summer, while also helping the Ospreys' attack to grow.

In that second Springboks Test, Anscombe showed the ability to pick apart a defence on strike plays, a skill which had earned him the starting jersey ahead of the 2019 World Cup under Warren Gatland.

Having experimented with a fast and loose, Scarlets-inspired style of play early in 2018, Gatland found a happy medium as Wales rose to become the number one ranked in the world, employing a tighter, more practical attacking gameplan that was largely based on accuracy and the vision of Anscombe.

Even the strike move which downed the Springboks this summer was similar to one against the same opponents during the 2018 autumn campaign when Anscombe had nailed down the jersey.

He has been sidelined recently with a rib injury, but the Ospreys revealed this week that he is back in training. Unless there is another bump in the road or he is needed to fill the void at full-back, then Anscombe is in pole position to be Wales' starting No. 10 should Biggar miss out.

Whether Biggar and Anscombe are fit or not, the other squad place for fly-half is certainly up for grabs. Rhys Patchell toured this summer, but didn't manage to make it onto the pitch. That means his last cap for Wales came back in 2020, so there might be a temptation for Pivac to get another look at the man who led his Scarlets side to the PRO12 title five years ago.

Patchell's qualities when fit and on form are clear, but at the moment, he is not the Scarlets' starting No. 10. Instead, that honour goes to Sam Costelow. The 21-year-old has been a rare shining light in a team lacking in confidence, and has been marked out as a future international ever since bursting onto the scene through age-grade rugby, even being brought in to train with the senior squad at times.

He is a player worthy of looking at before next year's World Cup. The only question remains whether it's better to look now or give him a full season as the Scarlets' playmaker before casting your eye in the warm-up matches.

Costelow certainly has the raw materials. Even in a Scarlets side low in confidence, he possesses the attacking weapons to break down defences. For Johnny McNicholl's try against Cardiff last week, he showed quick hands to recognise the spot-blitz from Rhys Priestland, freeing up Leigh Halfpenny to give the try-scoring pass.

In the try-fest against Ulster, we got to see how he can hold a defence through motion. Here, he keeps his body square while moving forward, stopping the defence from drifting off him.

When the time is right, he gives a no-look pass to Ioan Nicholas, all while keeping his shoulders totally square. Even though the pass is a little floaty in order for Nicholas to reach it, the work Costelow has already done means his full-back is able to get through the gap for a half-break.

Then there's the fact that, as demonstrated by a few tries worthy of highlight reels, Costelow has an eye for a break himself.

Being a genuine running threat at fly-half is a trait Pivac put stock in during his time as Scarlets coach, with the ability to challenge defences from first-receiver placing an onus on team-mates to step in and buy into the all-court game. Add in the fact that he's tougher than he looks and there's a lot to like.

Given his ability, he is surely in the conversation. If he is called up, it could be at the expense of Callum Sheedy.

The Bristol Bears fly-half had seemingly established himself as Biggar's deputy with some impressive cameos in the 2021 Six Nations triumph, but the return of Anscombe, along with a downturn in form at Ashton Gate, has seem him drop out of the picture. That came to a head when he wasn't picked to tour South Africa this summer.

He came away from that disappointment with some work-ons from Pivac and has done a relatively good job of improving his form so far, starting three of Bristol's five Premiership matches so far to show some nice glimpses and make a solid start on fending off the challenge of new fly-half rival AJ MacGinty.

The opening-day victory over Bath saw Sheedy do the basics relatively well, including some nice work to set up a try for Luke Morahan. A little hitch-kick helps him get on the outside of his defender, then he stays alive to play, tracking across to receive the offload and give the try-scoring pass.

The following week saw him run through the card against Wasps, contributing 18 points with two conversions, two penalties, a drop goal and a try. There was nothing too flashy beyond just running the attacking game well.

MacGinty was then handed starts against London Irish and Newcastle, before Sheedy came back into the starting side against Exeter. Despite the former champions eventually running riot, Sheedy started the match with some nice moments.

This ridiculous kick-pass under pressure set up Toby Fricker for the opening try, but as Exeter's dominance grew, Sheedy's influence waned.

He will be hoping he has done enough to have caught the attention of Pivac once again. Beyond those options, Priestland remains in the mix, having been involved in the past autumn and Six Nations squads. However, due to Cardiff's full-back crisis, his rugby this season has come with a No. 15 jersey on his back.

So it's hard to say with too much authority that he will make the squad, and the same can be said for the man in possession of the No. 10 jersey at the Arms Park. Jarrod Evans has had a solid start to the season so far, looking decent on the occasions the team as a whole has fronted up and struggling when they have not. However, having not been part of Pivac's plans for some time, you sense it will take something special to force his way back in.

The same can be said for Sam Davies, who is arguably even further back now after losing ground to Dragons team-mate JJ Hanrahan following a minor knee injury at the start of the campaign.

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