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Ben James

Wales look a confused and muddled mess, after three years under Pivac it's hard to see what the attacking footprint is

At some point in the week of the All Blacks Test, that inevitable feeling of hope helplessly washes over you.

That hope that maybe, for reasons that defy logic and explanation, this will be the time it happens. 1905, 1935, 1953 and, maybe, now.

In 2008, it was the moment that Ryan Jones refused to budge after the Haka. In 2014, it was around when Leigh Halfpenny nailed his third penalty to hand Warren Gatland's men a one-point lead.

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This year, it was, for myself at least, somewhere between the fifth and sixth hour of poring over clips from the All Blacks' matches in 2022. There were weaknesses to be exploited and, for as up and down as Wales had been this year, there was the sudden hope that Wayne Pivac's side could exploit those vulnerabilities like Ireland, Argentina and South Africa had.

Not enough hope to get close to predicting a Wales win, but just the right amount to think that Wales could be competitive for an hour and let that sense of hope wash over a few more in Cardiff before being crushed once again. That wasn't the case, though.

The writing was on the wall, from team selection right through to game plan and execution. Throughout the week, the notion that Wales would dispense with a big-hitting blindside like Dan Lydiate to deal with the All Blacks' expansiveness had quietly rankled with me.

This isn't an expansive All Black team. It's a direct one, with the emphasis on tempo. So, treating them as alien to the Springboks was the first mistake.

Still, when the back-row of Justin Tipuric, Tommy Reffell and Taulupe Faletau were named, I felt like they could cause New Zealand problems. This All Blacks side is there to get at if you go hard at the breakdown, as Argentina in particular showed.

However, perhaps that fifth hour of watching clips clouded the mind a little and made this Welsh back-row selection seem better-suited to facing the All Blacks than it really was. Almost working in a Dunning-Kruger effect of sorts, looking so much at the supposed weaknesses that you're instantly drawn to which selections can play upon those flaws.

The issue was there was nothing to supplement it. As Justin Tipuric noted afterwards, to get anything at the breakdown, you need to front up in the initial collisions. Wales didn't have an answer there. The lack of a Lydiate, Ross Moriarty or Josh Navidi on the blindside - and any other forwards smashing back black jerseys beyond the efforts of Ken Owens and Taulupe Faletau - meant Wales were ceding ground from phase to phase and over-chasing at the breakdown in an attempt to make any dent on New Zealand's ruck speed.

They knew this was coming. They knew that New Zealand were more direct than perhaps previous years, but would generate tempo through relentless carries supported by an aggressive clearout that targeted taking the tackler out of the game before he'd hit the deck.

Yet, Wales struggled to get to grips with it throughout the 80 minutes. The All Blacks generated quick ball at will from the first minute to the last, breaking down Wales in virtually the same way as they did last year.

Just a smart mix of carrying either off nine or through pick-and-goes - targeting Wales' ruck guard and bodyguard to negate linespeed - and Wales couldn't cope with it. To really get any purchase at the breakdown, you're relying on winning collisions and inefficient clearout work.

Neither happened, but Wales' initial back-row selection did nothing to influence that, either.

Contrast New Zealand in possession to Wales in possession. There were flashes of potential, such as some decent work from strike moves like the Rio Dyer try, while Nick Tompkins never stopped working to offer Wales some sort of dynamic with ball in hand.

But Wales’ success has come from either moving the ball and avoiding collisions - the narrow defeat to France in 2021 - or kicking the ball and winning defensive collisions - the entire tour of South Africa this summer.

Ask yourself the question, which one were Wales going for on Saturday? If it's the latter, then Wales rarely seemed to play for territory - with few kicks of consequence in open play.

As for the former, Wales did at times look to find edges, but genuine ball movement, such as tip-on passes at pace and offloading, was largely absent and, as is often the case, fell victim to their continued issues with the breakdown. The picture Wales provide from playing off nine is often, for the most part, so telegraphed that, even in a pod of three, it's easy for defences to line up the ball-carrier and win the initial collision.

From there, Wales' issues with the clearout have almost developed into a paranoia - with Wayne Barnes continually finding issue with constant latching as Pivac's side tried desperately to keep hold of possession.

It's hard to see, after three years under Pivac, what the attacking footprint is right now.

Were it to kick to compete and back the defensive collisions, like they did in South Africa, such a lack of evolution would be fair enough. Even against the Springboks, Wales didn't offer too much in the way of innovation beyond strike plays, but they put themselves in positions to stay in games.

Against New Zealand, there wasn't even that. On a day when Warren Gatland was back in Cardiff, some will use this as an opportunity to hark back to his days in charge and place the blame solely at the feet of his successor and his coaching ticket.

Certainly the early part of his success was built upon professional sides capable of holding their own outside of Wales, while Pivac's time in charge of Wales has been overshadowed by the slow and painful decay of the game in this country. So to pin the blame entirely on the coach is somewhat unfair.

Get your brilliant 48-page Wales at the World Cup preview special - it's a must-have historical souvenir

But good days for Wales under Pivac have been few and far between. The pressure now ramps up ahead of the visit of Argentina.

Lose that and this is suddenly a very, very long autumn campaign. No-one really expected Wales to beat the All Blacks in Cardiff on Saturday. Why would you after 69 years of this?

But, given all that's happened with New Zealand this year, the frustration lies in the fact that it wasn't really clear how Wales were truly looking to make history this time.

And with that, the hope was pretty much gone before kick-off.

Read more:

Sunday rugby news as Wales skipper Justin Tipuric candidly pinpoints what went wrong in New Zealand horror show

Wales v New Zealand winners and losers as pressure mounts on Pivac

Wales v New Zealand player ratings as Faletau and Owens not enough amid disappointing performances

Win free tickets to Wales v Argentina courtesy of Dove Men+Care

James Hook turns up at rugby event to discover Lee Byrne has massively stitched him up

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