Wales' health minister has said that she believes the country has "learned lessons" from the coronavirus pandemic and admitted she is constantly questioning if we are prepared for a future health emergency.
Eluned Morgan was talking ahead of a speech she was expected to make on Thursday regarding the future of the NHS. She is anticipated to be outlining how today's current NHS model is not sustainable, and that people need to help themselves in order to help the NHS.
Talking to BBC Radio Wales, she was quizzed about if Wales was prepared for a future pandemic, off the back of her predecessor, Vaughan Gething's admission earlier this week that he had not read a specialist report into Exercise Cygnus, which simulated what would happen to the UK if a pandemic like coronavirus was to hit. You can get more health updates straight to your inbox by subscribing to our newsletters here.
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The full details of what happened during the exercise remain classified, but it did show that a flu-like pandemic could cause the NHS to collapse. Ms Morgan said she had read the report, but that the pandemic learning overtook what was found in that exercise.
Ms Morgan said: "I ask my officials quite frequently, 'Are we ready for whatever comes next?' We have learnt a lot of lessons during the pandemic. None of us know what is around the corner, it is something I ask frequently, I have got a meeting next week to just run through exactly. I think we do have a lot of things in place because we learnt such a lot during those two years."
She was quizzed further on whether Wales had adequate PPE stock and said "We do have a lot of PPE stock still. The concern for me is not what we have just seen happening again but what about something which is completely unforeseen, those are the kinds of things I am concerned with."
Ms Morgan also added that if people wanted to keep the NHS as it was, free at the point of use, then people needed to take more responsibility to take care of their health. She recognised that the Welsh Government also had a role to play in that and had a responsibility that "fast food outlets aren't on every street corner".
Talking about the changes we may see, Ms Morgan said: "It is clear that the demand on the service is unsustainable in its current form. We have an ageing population, we have a population where 60% of the population are overweight or obese which leads to much more complications in older age so we do have to recognise we are going to have to move resources, to shift in terms of the configuration that we have now, so shifting resources out of hospitals into the communities is fundamental."
Current projections suggest the number of people diagnosed with cancer in Wales will rise from almost 20,000 a year between 2017 and 2019 to almost 25,000 by 2040. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is also expected to reach 17% of the population by 2035.
Ms Morgan continued: "It won't necessarily do less but it will do things in a different way so at the moment the focus is always on hospitals and what we are saying is actually rather than have a responsive system we need to get ahead of the game and have a preventative system. We know people who are old for example it is not ideal for them to go into hospital so we need to provide that support for them in the community, so we need to shift those resource from hospitals into our communities already.
"And if people do go to hospitals, one, the hospitals are likely to become far more specialist centres people may have to travel further for that support, but also we will have to ask the public to come with us on this journey, they are going to have to do more if they want to keep the system that we have at the moment, they are going to have to do more to help themselves. For example, people with type 2 diabetes with respiratory problems will have to do a lot more self management, we can do that now in a digital age with apps, they can look after themselves so there will be a shift in particular using technology."
In her speech today, the Health Minister was also due to highlight how the NHS had changed since its creation in 1948 and how further evolution was needed to meet future demand. Ahead of the speech today, Ms Morgan said: "“The way the NHS works has changed over the last 75 years, and NHS Wales will have to change further if we want to preserve it for the next generation. The system is under strain like never before and demand for services is greater than ever. We are going to have to ask difficult questions about how we bring about this change and adapt to continuing pressures.
“The health care needs of Wales have changed. We want the public and healthcare workers to work together to create a system where everyone understands their responsibilities. Central to this is addressing workforce issues, shifting our focus to moving care out of hospitals and into the community, and focusing on what is in the best interest for the patient.
“But we will also have to take far more seriously our responsibility to try and stay fit and healthy and manage our own health and wellbeing where possible. We need people, the NHS and wider society to work together to make a healthier lifestyle accessible for everyone. If we don’t – we know that really difficult decisions will need to be made in terms of what services will be available in future.”
