Wales had fewer excess deaths than any other part of the UK according to the latest figures. A new report by the Welsh Government's Technical Advisory Group (TAG), which is the Welsh equivalent of SAGE, looking at excess deaths across the UK has provided some interesting insights into how the pandemic has played out.
Excess deaths refers to the difference between the number of deaths registered over a set time, compared with the average number of deaths for the same time period over the previous five years. A positive number means that we are seeing more deaths than the historical average, with a negative number showing fewer deaths (i.e no excess). Excess deaths help understand the total picture during the pandemic, as they also take into account indirect impacts of the coronavirus pandemic (these could potentially include things such as fewer deaths from road accidents, or more deaths due to delayed access to healthcare).
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There were fewer excess deaths in Wales than any other part of the UK
According to the data, which is drawn from the Office for National Statistics, the amount of excess deaths per country was:
England: 14.5%
Wales: 11.7%
Scotland: 12.3%
Northern Ireland: 13.4%
It is understood that the reason for England's higher rate is down to London having a significantly higher number of deaths at the very early stages of the first wave of the pandemic. As you can see from the graphs below, all parts of the UK had a similar first wave spike. Wales had the worst of it in the second wave whereas Scotland had lower peaks in the virus but a more consistent level of Covid throughout. You can keep up to date with the latest coronavirus news by subscribing to our Covid daily briefing newsletter here.
Where in Wales was worst affected?
According to the report every single part of Wales saw significant excess deaths during the pandemic. However some areas were hit significantly harder than others. For instance the amount of excess deaths in the north and the west of Wales was seven percentage points lower than in the Valleys. A WalesOnline investigation showed that this difference wasn't because people in the Valleys were breaking the rules - it was far more complicated than that. You can read the full analysis here.
- Betsi Cadwaladr: 9.2%
- Powys: 9.6%
- Hywel Dda: 8.6%
- Swansea Bay: 12.2%
- Cwm Taf: 15.9%
- Anerurin Bevan: 13.4%
- Cardiff and Vale: 12.1%
Where exactly were people dying in Wales?
The amount of excess deaths has also been calculated for different settings. The data in the graphs below makes it clear just how much death there was in Welsh care homes in the first wave of the pandemic. The Welsh Government discharged many asymptomatic people from hospital into care homes without testing them. This award-winning WalesOnline investigation documented their failings in care settings.
The data also shows that in the second wave, hospitals were far more likely to be the setting with significant excess deaths. Throughout the pandemic there was a fairly consistent rate of people dying in their homes.
