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Health

Western Australia could hit fresh COVID-19 peak as AMA remains nervous over removal of mask mandate

Mark McGowan will be hoping Western Australia's soft landing continues amid eased restrictions. (ABC News: James Carmody)

After Western Australia removed almost all of its COVID-19 rules last week, yesterday's new peak of 9,782 daily cases was pretty much expected.

And with case numbers tending to be higher on Thursdays, it's possible today's tally will be another record. 

The Chief Health Officer warned this would likely happen, and it was a consequence of easing restrictions accepted by both Premier Mark McGowan and the Health Minister, Amber-Jade Sanderson.

Asked about the rise yesterday, Ms Sanderson reiterated the key statistics are hospitalisations and intensive care admissions, which have remained relatively consistent.

But the next two weeks will be telling, given that's how long it can take between someone contracting the virus and becoming ill enough to need hospital treatment.

If hospitalisations skyrocket, it could jeopardise Mark McGowan's promise of a soft landing.

Do rising case numbers mean much if hospital admissions are steady?

Daily infections can be a useful metric, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

One of the useful things case numbers can show is where hospital admissions could be in a week or two, because of the lag between testing positive and ending up in hospital.

Even if hospital admissions aren't rising though, looking at new cases can be important, for a number of reasons.

As one example, more cases in the community means more healthcare workers testing positive, reducing capacity in the health system and adding strain. 

Nancy Baxter is a clinical epidemiologist and head of the University of Melbourne's school of population and global health.

Nancy Baxter says people can reduce the spread by doing little things right.  (Supplied: University of Melbourne)

She also warned every infection came with the risk that person would be left with long COVID.

"It's hard to know the exact number," she said, "probably less than 10 per cent but likely more than five per cent."

"So that's a real number of people that are affected over a long period of time with COVID... a lot of people who are unable to work, short-term or even longer-term."

Unfortunately, more infections will almost certainly mean more deaths too.

"And some of that will be because restrictions were relaxed," Professor Baxter said.

What do we expect to happen from here?

We don't really know, in part because the path ahead depends on how people respond to rising case numbers.

Professor Baxter said Western Australia could be facing a much higher peak and a slow plateau from here.

"People may respond to the numbers today by just shrugging their shoulders and not doing anything about it," Professor Baxter said.

"[But] if everybody did some little things that reduce the risk ... that would help reduce transmission and help you get back over this sooner and back to a lower number of cases."

Part of the issue, she said, is the previous peak came when wide-ranging restrictions were in place. 

"That means there are less people who've actually contracted COVID in communities in WA," Professor Baxter explained.

"Which means that you don't have that same protection from having a number of people recently having had the infection as you did in those other states where you saw the numbers come down quite quickly.

"I think there may well be another significant peak and it may be some time before we're really on the other side of the peak in WA."

The Australian Medical Association continues to remind people the vast majority of West Australians have not yet contracted COVID. 

What's happened in other states?

It's a bit of a mixed bag, and seems to depend on just how sharp the initial peak was.

In places like New South Wales and Victoria, cases did start increasing again as restrictions were removed, but they didn't come anywhere near the extreme peaks seen early in the year.

It was a similar story in the Australian Capital Territory, the Northern Territory and in Queensland.

However, in South Australia and Tasmania, cases in the second wave did end up going higher than the initial peak, with increases of between seven and 11 per cent.

Western Australia's cases yesterday were only marginally higher than the previous peak, so it remains to be seen how much higher they'll go.

Western Australia is likely heading for a fresh peak of COVID cases. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)

So should we have kept masks on longer, or bring them back now?

When asked about this yesterday, Ms Sanderson said she had spoken to the Chief Health Officer, who was "comfortable" with the current rules.

But both Professor Baxter and the Australian Medical Association in WA would have preferred them to stay longer.

"I would relax many of the other things that have been relaxed before I would relax masks," Professor Baxter said.

"They don't stop you from doing anything, they allow you to do all your activities, they just protect you from others and others from you."

AMA WA president Mark Duncan-Smith is keen to see them come back, especially if the number of people in hospital climbs.

Mark Duncan-Smith wants to see a return of the mask mandate if hospitalisations spike. (ABC News: Rhiannon Shine)

"This is a small price to pay to protect the medical system that people are otherwise going to need when they get COVID," he said.

Premier Mark McGowan said last week it was “unlikely” masks would be reintroduced, but would not rule it out.

Is there anything I can do to protect myself?

Vaccination and mask wearing remain the best ways to stay safe from the virus.

But with fewer people keeping masks on, Professor Baxter said those still wearing them needed to change their habits.

Professor Baxter says people still wearing masks should protect themselves with a high-quality product.  (ABC Radio Perth: Emma Wynne)

"It's really important that people start to look for high-quality, well-fitted masks, so those are P2 or N95 respirators," she said.

"It's really important because if not everybody is wearing a mask, you need to have the best protection possible to prevent you from getting COVID."

And with greater access to antiviral treatments for people who do get seriously ill with the virus, Professor Baxter said early testing and diagnosis was critical.

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