Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz would be wise to go on offense over immigration as the Minnesota governor heads to his lone debate with Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, according political analysts.
The vice presidential nominees square off Tuesday in New York and some analysts say this debate could matter in the seven swing states expected to decide the presidential election. Vance, who in a fundraising email Monday called the showdown “pivotal,” almost certainly will use the session to continue the Trump campaign’s attempts to paint Harris and Walz as weak on illegal immigration.
Former President Donald Trump and Harris in recent days have traded barbs over the issue, with the vice president laying out her vision for the issue Friday in Arizona at a campaign event after touring a section of the U.S.-Mexico border.
The former president fired back on Saturday at a rally in another battleground state, Wisconsin, contending Harris had been the point person for a Biden administration immigration policy that allowed individuals here illegally to “rape, pillage, thieve, plunder and kill the people of the United States of America.” He continued to hammer Harris on the topic during a Sunday rally in Pennsylvania.
At the Erie rally, Trump appeared to urge a purge of undocumented migrants: “One rough hour, and I mean real rough. The word will get out and it will end immediately.”
Some political analysts and strategists contend Harris and Walz cannot afford to allow Trump and Vance to continue making such outlandish statements on the issue.
One former Republican lawmaker who spoke on background Sunday noted the Democratic duo has closed ground in some battleground state polls on the economy, but should adjust their approach to do the same on immigration.
Similarly, Kim Fridkin, a political science professor at Arizona State University, wrote in a Friday email that she would have advised Harris “to talk about the border earlier in her campaign and show that she recognizes this is an important issue. I think she needs to show that she supports increases in security on the border — which she has done — and point to how her vision is different from Trump’s vision.”
The vice president took a step in that direction Friday in Arizona, pledging, if elected, to impose a five-year ban on individuals caught crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally. Those migrants also would be barred from seeking asylum in the United States.
“Our system must be orderly and secure,” Harris told supporters in Douglas, vowing to “surge” more personnel, training and technology to the border, and to “double” Justice Department personnel going after drug cartels and others involved in fentanyl trafficking.
A major hurdle for Harris and Walz on debate eve is that perception often is reality.
“The Republican campaign has dubbed her the ‘immigration czar’ during the Biden administration, despite her strong protestations, [and] the perception that she broke the U.S immigration system still persists. This is especially true in border towns that have been struggling to keep pace with the surging immigrant numbers in the last year,” Lisa Sanchez, a University of Arizona political science professor, said in a Friday email.
“Harris needs to make a strong case that she is empathetic to the border towns and governments and has a detailed plan to assuage their problems,” she added. “Harris is walking a tightrope with her base on immigration because she must maintain her stance on the dignity and humanity of immigrants. This is not going to be easy.”
The Trump camp kept up their attacks on a Monday morning call with reporters.
“Tim Walz faces a tough task. He must overcome the barrier of convincing voters that the current vice president … bears zero responsibility for the economic and immigration disasters she created,” said Jason Miller, a senior Trump campaign adviser. “She could go back to the White House today and put into action every single idea she’s proposed on the campaign trail. … It’s very tough to turn the page when you’re the one who wrote the book.”
The former GOP lawmaker said it is likely Walz will try to push back on any immigration claims made by Vance during Tuesday’s clash, adding time is running out to alter the narrative.
“Harris can’t avoid the issue of immigration because it’s important to voters, but she can increase people’s understanding of her view and how she would deal with the problem and whether people view her as able to get something done on the border,” the former lawmaker said.
One Democratic strategist agreed, contending there is polling evidence of Harris and Walz closing some ground on immigration.
“Trump’s failure to have a clear edge on this divisive issue may reflect a backlash against the overheated GOP rhetoric on Haitian refugees in the neighboring state of Ohio,” said strategist Brad Bannon.
For the Democratic duo, “the best defense … on immigration would be to go on offense,” Bannon said, adding they “should challenge Trump on his opposition to [the] bipartisan congressional bill, supported by the administration, that would have imposed tough restrictions on immigration.”
Harris did just that during her Friday stop in Arizona, a signal Walz likely will be equipped with similar lines Tuesday.
For the Democratic candidates, Sanchez said, “previous immigration policy stances have made it difficult … to pivot on the issue to a more moderate stance,” adding the Harris-Walz camp should “make the case that she has great concern for all parties involved with the border crisis and that she wants to use her experiences meeting with border officials, border citizens, and immigrants to create a workable system for everyone involved.”
On the other hand, expect Vance to push Trump’s proposals for a “mass deportation program” and ridding the federal budget of any spending line that he could contend aids those in the country illegally.
Notably, Vance in the Monday fundraising email appeared to be lowering expectations for the debate — and trying to rake in campaign cash.
“No matter how badly I beat him, liberal mega-donors are going to FLOOD their campaign with millions in dirty dollars,” Vance said in the email. “It will be our BEST CHANCE to counter the surge of dark money being poured into Kamala’s warchest.”
The expectations management continued on the Monday morning press call, with Miller saying, “Tim Walz is very good at debates. … Tim Walz is a wily campaign veteran,” adding the Trump camp expects the former House member and sitting governor to be “very polished.”
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