Poles are voting in the country’s parliamentary election, with the populist Law and Justice (PiS) government trying to win a third term in office and see off a challenge from an opposition led by the former prime minister and European Council president Donald Tusk.
Polling in the run-up to the vote suggested the race was too close to call, and the ability for either PiS or Tusk’s Civic Coalition to form a government is likely to come down to the results of other, smaller parties.
Both sides have painted the vote as being of decisive, if not existential, importance for the future of Poland. Tusk has described the election as “the last chance” to stop PiS from doing irreparable damage to Polish democracy.
PiS, which has governed Poland for eight years, has turned public television into a propaganda arm of the government, restricted abortion rights and demonised LGBTQ+ people, migrants and refugees.
It has also put Poland on a collision course with Brussels over rule of law issues, resulting in tens of billions of euros in European funding being frozen.
PiS has run a campaign from the populist playbook, claiming it is the only party that can protect Poland from an “invasion” of refugees. The campaign has also focused on the figure of Tusk, relentlessly attacking the challenger as a foreign stooge.
“This election will show whether Poland will be governed by Poles, or by Berlin or Brussels,” the PiS chair, Jarosław Kaczyński, said at the party’s final campaign rally on Friday.
There were queues across Warsaw on Sunday morning as people waited to cast their ballots. Traditionally, the capital and other big cities are strongholds of support for the opposition, while the PiS heartland is in smaller towns and rural areas. At one polling station in Wola district, opposition voters expressed confidence at the chances of unseating the PiS.
“I saw a lot of young people, more than four or eight years ago, which makes me optimistic,” said Pawel, 46, who had voted for Tusk’s Civic Coalition.
At the same polling station Maciej, 78, said the stereotype that older people supported PiS was not true. “There are plenty of us who know how to think,” he said, tapping his forehead.
Across town in the Gocław district, 77-year-old Grażyna said she voted for PiS because she believed it was the “fairest” of all the parties. “I hope they will be able to continue changing Poland for the better,” she said, after queueing for 20 minutes to vote.
Alongside the election, the government is running a referendum that asks four leading questions, including two on migration. One asks if people agree with “the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa”.
The referendum has been seen as a way to boost turnout among the PiS support base, as well as a way to circumvent electoral funding restrictions for the government.
The opposition has told its supporters to request only an election ballot and decline to take part in the referendum, which requires a 50% turnout to be valid.
The final outcome could depend on how well three smaller groupings do. The leftwing Lewica and centre-right Third Way are expected to form a coalition with Tusk’s Civic Coalition if between them they can muster the 231 seats required to claim a majority in the lower house of parliament.
“As a woman, I don’t feel that for the past eight years there was anyone in parliament who represented me, and I hope this will now change,” said 32-year-old Marta, who had voted for Lewica in Warsaw.
Confederation, a far-right coalition tipped to get about 9% of the vote, is a wild card. It has ruled out formal coalitions but may end up as the kingmaker.
Voting will continue until 9pm CET (8pm BST), when exit polls will be published that will give a first hint of the results.
If the result is as close as polling in the buildup suggests, it is possible the country could see days or weeks of political uncertainty as one or the other of the bigger parties attempts to put together a workable governing coalition.
Additional reporting by Katarzyna Piasecka
