A clear majority of UK voters want the government to concentrate on rebuilding trade ties with the EU over forging a new economic deal with the US, according to research published this weekend.
The study, based on analysis of polling that used new methods of questioning participants, suggests people of voting age now see their economic interests, and the UK’s, as far more closely linked to open trade relations with our EU neighbours than any deals that Keir Starmer might or might not strike with the US.
The analysis shows how far the UK public has turned back in favour of the EU since the Brexit referendum, and it indicates the trend could be strengthened as a result of the economic turmoil unleashed by US president Donald Trump’s tariff announcements and resulting global financial panic over recent days.
Commissioned by the internationalist thinktank Best for Britain, the research found that 53% of voters now believe a closer relationship with the EU will have a positive effect on the UK economy, against just 13% who said the effect would be negative. In turn, 68% believed better relations with the EU would boost UK/EU trade in a clearly positive way.
Asked what they believed Keir Starmer’s priorities should be for a UK-EU summit in May, at which the prime minister and EU leaders will discuss moves to increase post-Brexit cooperation, the most popular answer was “trade between the UK and the EU”, which came out narrowly ahead of “illegal immigration across the channel” and, in third place, “improving the UK’s and EU’s defence and security”. Even among people who said they would consider voting for Reform UK at the next election, half (48%) said closer EU ties would have a positive impact on trade, with the same number saying it would make travel for Britons easier across Europe. This compares with one in 10 (11%) potential Reform voters who said it would have a negative impact on either.
When voters were given 20 options and asked to choose four that the government should focus on improving, “the UK’s ability to sign new trade deals with the USA” came 17th. The cost of living came top, followed by immigration and asylum, the UK economy and economic growth, energy costs, UK defence, and trade between the UK and was EU in sixth place.
The study also found that a majority (62%) understand that the government is seeking a closer relationship with the EU. Far more people also thought the government was not going far enough to rebuild ties (35%) than those who thought the current approach was correct (15%). Among Labour’s winning coalition at the last election, a clear majority believed the government was not going far enough (54%).
A sample of 4,703 people responded to YouGov between 31 March and 2 April, just as Trump was beginning to unveil his tariff plans, which have panicked the global final financial markets and opened the prospect of a bitter and prolonged trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, the US and China.
Last week, Trump was forced by the meltdown on the financial markets to announce a 90-day pause in the introduction of his higher “reciprocal” tariffs imposed on dozens of countries – with the notable exception of China. Keir Starmer’s public line is that he still hopes to gain an exemption from the 10% base tariffs imposed on the UK by signing a wider UK/US economic deal in the coming weeks.
Recent independent economic analysis by Frontier Economics found that even in the face of Trump’s trade war, a commonsense deal with the EU that included deeper alignment on goods and services would secure economic growth of up to 1.5% to UK GDP, offsetting the impact of US tariffs completely for the UK and by a third for the EU.
Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “Voters expect the prime minister to come away with more than just a defence pact when he hosts EU leaders in May and want him to prioritise removing trade barriers in the interests of bringing costs down and getting growth. They want trade before defence, trade before Channel crossings, and definitely trade with the EU before trade with Donald Trump.”
Much of the analysis was based on the “Max-Diff” method, which is regarded as suitable when a range of options need to be put to respondents in order to gain a full and meaningful set of responses. Under this methodology, priorities are scored by asking people to choose their top three preferred options and their bottom three to provide a representative result.
Peter Norris, chair of Virgin Group said: “As the last week has so painfully demonstrated, Trump is bad for business, consumers and savers. He has wreaked havoc in international markets and left us all on the precipice of a global recession that would mean real pain for people in the UK.
“It is of the utmost urgency that our UK government work with our reliable partners in the EU to remove the artificial trade barriers between us so that both British and European businesses are in the best position to succeed in these extremely challenging conditions and so shield consumers from the worst effects.”
Former British ambassador to the US Kim (now Lord) Darroch said: “Under the current administration at least, the US has shown little interest in doing favours for anyone, friend or foe.
“The global order which has been in place for almost 80 years is changing by the hour and it makes sense for the UK to find stability through deeper cooperation with our allies in Europe while maintaining good relations with Washington.”
