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Voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle almost all major policy issues going into this election, according to exclusive polling data from Savanta for The Independent.
The nationwide survey, which questioned 1,892 registered voters from 9 to 13 August, found that the five most important issues in this election are the economy, inflation, healthcare, jobs, and crime.
But healthcare is the only issue where voters place their trust in Democrats (53 per cent) over Republicans (38 per cent); while the GOP is perceived as better placed to manage all other major topics.
This is a major barrier which Harris must overcome, with all eyes on the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago this week where Democrats are expected to roll-out their main policy platform.
For latest updates on the DNC, click here.
Though analysis shows that Harris often veers to the left when compared to incumbent President Joe Biden, voters may not yet be convinced of her ideas.
One in five (18 per cent) of voters say they are likely to change their mind about who they will vote for in November, The Independent can exclusively reveal – meaning that no vote is in-hand until ballots are cast, and both parties must be able to present strong policy positions which resonate with voters.
People appear to be less convinced on the Democratic party’s policies – despite the fact that US voters overall are leaning more towards Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, whose favorability is higher than Donald Trump’s.
In particular, the polls have consistently shown that voters trust Trump and the Republican position more on economic issues, with varying margins.
Inflation is the issue where voters have the strongest conviction in the Republican Party, +11 per cent more than Democrats. In fact, even one in 10 Democrats (9 per cent) believe that the Republican Party would be able to manage inflation better.
Yet the opposite is also true when it comes to healthcare; 14 per cent of Republicans believe that the Democrats are better placed to manage that issue.
Some of the GOP’s more controversial and extreme policy positions have proved divisive among their own support base.
A substantial number of Republicans prefer Democratic positions on abortion (21 per cent), climate change (22 per cent), and even “culture war” issues such as LGBT+ rights (25 per cent).
This suggests that Trump, who has taken more extreme approaches to these issues, is not hitting all the right notes within his own party.
Meanwhile, Independents tend to lean more Republican on all economic issues, according to the data. However, these voters are more convinced by the Democratic party’s positions on social issues like education, healthcare, abortion, and LGBT+ rights; on gun policy and infrastructure, Independents are evenly split.
Research analyst Ethan Granholm from polling company Savanta said: “Our research suggests that the Republican ticket should be winning this election, and pretty comfortably. On major policy issues and general direction of the country, the Democrats are swimming against the tide.
“But because of Harris’ momentum and relative popularity, and Trump’s challenges with appealing to swing voters, this election is much closer.”
